Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r1 Sunplay ; Should make its way to the top and control it. From there it has the fitness base to prove very hard to run down. Fly Away Home has to stretch it’s promising form out to 1500m . Bonnie Lad gets 3kg claim and blinkers to try and make up 2.6 lengths on Sunplay. Special Sort wouldn’t have to be a star to win but tough day to debut over 1500m as a 3yo.

Pinjarra r7 Prize Pursuit ; Has a task from the gate with the weight. No win bet at the odds . Flexi novelties only .

1st ; 1 4 6 , 2nd - 3rd ; 1 2 4 6 4th 1 2 4 6 7 9 . $18 trifecta $54 first 4 .

Wednesday Winners

Belmont is a Heavy 9 at time of writing ,. With plenty of more rain forecast tomorrow we will be lucky if the meeting even goes ahead. Being track side Saturday when it deteriorated from a drying 6 to a 10 in about 2 races , I noticed some of the swimmers we tipped didn’t even handle it , especially if they settled back in the field . With this in mind we will not be betting early and we will definitely be going small stakes.

Best Bet Belmont r1 Beneath the Covers ; Has run 2 seconds on Heavy to kick off campaign and beat home the favourite Mr Megsey at latest despite sitting deep the trip. Blinkers on , maps to find the front and has 4kg’s less to carry than the favourite .

Belmont r8 Cheerful Moment ; First run back from Victoria and while 1200m is way short of his best , gee whiz the heavy track Victorian form stacks up against these. Enticing the other wet tracker if 1200m proves too short for top pick.

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Weekend Winners

Here’s the preview for the prestigious , time honoured “ Paul Taylor Handicap “ day . Hardest part about tipping this meeting is predicting what sort of conditions will present itself on the day. Tracks currently rated a soft 6 as it basks in glorious winter sunshine. The way Belmont drains it will be no surprise to wake up to a 5/ borderline good 4 but then… The forecast has changed from up to 20mls to 5-6 mls , the majority to fall between 8am - 12 pm. I’m hedging my bets and saying a 6 but it could be anywhere from a 6 to a Heavy 8. Drier than a 6 then my form goes out the window.

Best Bet Belmont r4 Alimentaria ; Price perspective best bet. Honest winter stayer that controls this out in front and gives a good kick. Currently paying 20c more than the 2nd fav Flower in the Wind after finishing 10 lengths in front of it only 2 weeks ago. Yes Flower didn’t handle the heavy but it’s a big turnaround in 2 weeks. Positive Impact could easily be the best horse in time but $2.90 when he’s stepping up 500m at start 4 in his first preparation is an ask I’m willing to go around . The wetter it is , the bigger advantage fitness and the speedmap becomes .

Belmont r5 Classic Rogue ; If the track makes it to the 7/8 range his chances skyrocket. Handled the conditions much better 2 weeks ago ( was a H9) then his opposition. Same track and distance today but stiffer opposition. Vital Flirt is in the same boat in regards to condtions , Big Screen looks hard to run down but may cop some pressure from Inflation . Drier / on pace conditions suit him so like all races today , big watch on conditions.

Belmont r7 Probity ; Absolutely swims so if it’s a h8 it becomes the best of the day , a s5 my enthusiasm plummets. The win on the H9 two weeks ago was remarkable. Settled a clear last , sliced through the field and won effortlessly , running away from them on the line. This is a harder race with Multinational to chase down but pretty confident it does in the right conditions.

Belmont r8 Resortman ; The win in the Bolton Sprint was top notch , especially considering the track pattern of the day. He sat deep from the wide draw and sustained a long run to win narrowly but convincingly. Very similar field in identical conditions and from a better gate , he should be awfully hard to beat providing he gets room to zoom in the straight.

Best Value Belmont r9 Kia Ora Star ; TBH if the race wasn’t named after one’s self then I wouldn’t be betting. But it is so It would be rude not to throw a dart. Did too much work first up and dropped out late . I thought it was a good effort under the circumstances . Hoping they elect to take a sit on Puli instead of getting in a speed battle , peel off heels and try and pinch it. I am a #11inthelast man and Dorado should get an identical run to last time drawn 1 , might not be as rain effected but the form has stood up since.

r9 Novelties 1st & 2nd ; 1 3 11 3rd & 4th ; Field . $3 Quinella , $60 trifecta $660 first 4.

Extremely tough race and by no means do I suggest spending much on the novelties , they should pay huge no matter what the result so a small flexi % will be suffice.

Belmont Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 6 , field , 2 8 , 2 4 . $64 for 100%

Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) field , 7 , 4 5 , field $240 for 100%

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Northam Numbers

Northam r3 Big Break ; Is no star but I’m convinced she’ll pinch a 1000m maiden eventually when she gets the right run. Has the speed to sit comfortably outside Smiling Girl and keep kicking down the straight. The ones likely to be chasing are first up so at $6 I’m willing to play each way .

Best Bet Northam r5 George Gently ; Came from last up the rail to run 2nd this track and distance first up. Drawn 1 it can settle closer but get a similar run In a race that lacks depth.

Best Value Northam r9 Riding Hood Fame ; On form and ability Benji’s should be winning here. The big weight over a distance it has only run two 3rds in 5 attempts got me to look for value instead. This mare finally won her maiden at the end of May and has been racing consistently ever since. The Northam mile is her favourite track and distance so back to a c1 she can run a cheeky race on a 10/90% basis. The more the track dries out , the better her chances .

Best Roughie Northam r10 Amber Mamba ; Pretty much a case of fomo here as we tipped and had something on last time. She gets a long way back and most likely needs an easier race but I can’t let her go round at $126 and $20 without having 5 each way on. Should be closer to 40’s in my opinion.

Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; 2 3 4 5 6 7 11 , 1 2 3 4 5 7 , 3 , 10 . $42 for 100%

Quaddie (R7-10) ; 1 11 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 , 1 6 , 1 6 8 9 $128 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont is already playing tired with making ground proving extremely difficult in recent times. We face another Heavy track tomorrow with the rail out 21m. Not a scenario that makes you want to bet with confidence. When following anyone’s tips or your own form it’s vitally important to monitor how the track is playing early and adjust accordingly.

Best Bet Belmont r4 Bird’s The Word ; Has won on heavy , drawn to race very handy with a leading rider engaged and has the strongest form. Ticks a lot of boxes. Wise Cracker has become a bit of a tease but swims so worth including at $8.

Novelties ; 1st 6 7 2nd 4 6 7 , 3rd & 4th Field . $28 trifecta $168 first4

Best Value Belmont r5 City of Sin ; His two heavy track runs have been his best by several lengths , albeit down the Pinjarra straight 1000m. Very little exposed wet track form in this so from barrier 2 could prove hard to catch on an each way basis.

Best Roughie Belmont r8 Ensign Pulver ; Races on speed , is down in the weights and racing consistently. Ran 2nd to the champ Prize Pursuit on soft two starts back , he would start close to favourite in this. There are better winning chances no doubt but at $26 / $5.50 I’m willing to have a small play on a 20/80 % basis.

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Broome Bangers

Best Bet Broome r2 Isola Bay ; Leading at this track is the place to be and he has the speed to take full advantage of the inside draw. Does have 60kgs due to the drop in class and there are other speed horses engaged so he will need to jump cleanly but if he does his best will win this.

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Weekend Winners

Track rated a Heavy 9 Friday morning , lovely drying conditions today , showers expected to arrive in the afternoon and nothing too drastic. In summary I have no idea what conditions will be like come race time. Looking for horses that can handle wet ground is a given , hopefully we don’t need to single out swimmers. I personally won’t be betting til tomorrow morning when we have a better idea and dodge the nasty deductions.

Best Bet Belmont r2 Etomorp ; Might not of beat much last start but he did it on heavy 2nd up from a long spell and he blew them away from near last. Remembering this is only a c1 transferred from Wednesday , he has way more upside then anything else in the race. Surprised he’s black figures , 60kgs the only concern.

Belmont r4 No Apology ; Going back to the clash with Brave Dream 4 weeks ago. They meet at the same distance , weights and conditions. No Apology toughed it out on speed that day to lift off the canvas and hold out Brave Dream who flashed home late to just miss in a 3 way go. Apology has since taken ground off a flying leader who keeps winning , Dream was unsuited by the drop back to 1400m but wasn’t far away. Tough race to map but Shooter has barrier 1 to get a soft run and it will take a big run to get past him.

Belmont r8 Regal Magic ; Horrible map ( expect she settle’s last) , but I can’t declare her the biggest moral beaten in horse racing history and not butter up. To get as close as she did after being hopelessly checked out of it on the corner was remarkable. Had she not had to change course last 100m she probably still gets up. Down to 53.5kgs I’m going to ignore the map and back her on a 40/60 % basis. This bet is dependent on 8 runners facing the starter ( 3 place divs). Phanta will be ridiculously hard to run down , hence the each way strategy . Good Quinella.

Belmont r9 Little Flirt ; Wet Belmont 1400m is this mares cup of tea. Much better barrier this time , the challenge will be for the young apprentice to navigate a clear passage. 40/60 split again.

Best Multi ; Etomorp (win ) , Regal Magic (place) , Little Flirt (place)

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Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r2 Our Boy Dylan ; The last and only time he raced down the Pinjarra straight 1000m he won as a heavily backed favourite. He was also first up that day. Struggled to split him and First Law. His recent form is strong and he finally broke through last start , winning effortlessly . Both apprentice ridden , I’ll stick with the straight experience and back Dylan for a profit and First Law to cover the bet . EG 10 units on Dylan 5 units on Law. Might even go the quinella for the cherry on top.

Best Value Pinjarra r3 Whaitiri ; Has placed last 3 starts , all of them on soft / heavy tracks. Last one was 2200m so he will be the fittest horse in the race which gives him a sniff at odds. The 2nd to Etomorp this track , distance and conditions is good enough , especially when you consider Etomorp was a $2.05 fav at the washed out Belmont meeting today. Each Way.

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r4 Prize Pursuit ; Doing the form for a track in the Heavy 8 / Soft 7 range based on Friday’s forecast. . While I’m not sure he’s a duck (pun intended) neither is he a duffer. He has run 2nd on a 8 previously. The speed map looks pretty straightforward . The omen horse Inflation will kick up and lead from barrier 1 , giving CJP the option from 2 to either find his back or stay 1 off depending on how the inside is playing. Most of these have been racing in the Westpeed races and there has been little separating them at the finish. Lucky Heart brings the alternate form line , handles wet ground and looks the value in the market. Prize should get the run of the race , Lucky Heart , Arnie’s Boy , Classic Rouge , Ninetyone Dwyer best placed to challenge , Inflation and Speedy Miss next best.

Betting Strategy ; This part is tough . To be honest while he’s hard to beat, there’s not much value in $3.40. Being an owner I will most likely just try and pocket the stakes and drink the free frothies should he salute. At $5 + I could entertain backing him for the win.

Novelties

1st 3 , 2nd , 1 5 7 11 , 3rd & 4th ; 1 2 4 5 7 11 $4 exacta , $20 trifecta $80 first 4.

Risky standing him out to win but you gotta risk it to win the biscuit!

Best Bet Belmont r8 Corn Cob ; Have a lot of time for this horse. Had 11 starts in it’s initial campaign starting with a Geraldton maiden win in December 21 and finished with a 70+ win beating smart city winner Startrade at the end of April , winning a total of 6 races. That is an incredible performance. He looks extremely well placed back to 62+ grade with the 3kg claim reducing his wait to 56.5kgs. Racing on a wet track , coming from good 3s is the query but it’s called gambling and I’m willing to take the punt on an each way basis.

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Northam Numbers

Northam r5 Image of Pro ; Trialed like a smart horse and drawn to dictate out in front which is usually a big advantage this track.

Northam r6 Star Soprano ; Speedy customer who should have no trouble finding the front and with a 3kg claim it will be hard for anything to run him down.

Best Bet Northam r7 Forever Autumn ; The form he brings from his last start 3yo event is considerably stronger than he meets here.

All 3 look extremely well placed. As they are all in the $2-$3 dollar range I suggest a system 2/3 where if at least two win you get a return , all 3 a decent result. If the first two lose then you can reload on the best bet.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Value Belmont r1 Frantic War ; Luck in running and a survival of the fittest type affair and he definitely has the race fitness covered.

Betting Strategy ; 20/80% Each Way. Opened as much as $19/ $4.60 . Straight into $13/$3.60 so I’m not the only one who thinks it can run a race as it wasn’t my money (sigh). I suggest waiting until at least scratchings tomorrow morning to avoid deductions.

Belmont r5 Revitup ; All eyes on the start of this race. She’s very quick , she handles wet ground and if she can cross The Collector she doesn’t cop any kickback.. The Collector was very impressive to the eye at his latest trial , leading all the way and putting 6 lengths on them when let off the chain in the straight. Interesting if they try and keep the fav out or take a sit. I would take the sit and get the perfect tow in . The time of the trial wasn’t as impressive as other 2yo’s on same day in this race . That persuades me to side with the race proven form but it’s imperative she finds the front on her own.

Best Bet Belmont r8 Chili Is Hot ; She is having a very consistent prep and Paul Harvey is in a rich vein of form. Considering she has beaten both All Day Session and Brave Dream home at her last two 2nds ( vs 6th and 10th respectively ) , I’m confused as to why she’s longer odds. Brave Dream was enormous last start but that was 1600m , switch back to 1400m a concern for mine. The fav must be priced on the map where it looks like getting a soft lead . Not bothered how wet it gets with Chili , just need to see horses making ground sweeping into it by race 6. Confident she is the most reliable out of the 4 horses mentioned so going 40/60 % split as the bet of the day.

Best Roughie Belmont r11 Kia Ora Star ; Boy what a great betting race. 2 of the rank outsiders are 1/1 on heavy! I can only genuinely rule 1 of the 14 out due to it’s wet track record but no way am I saying which 1 just in case ! The rising 9yo veteran up the top found a new lease of life when given a sea change last preparation and heading to the Great South. Has won 3/7 first up , 2/4 at the distance including 1/1 at Belmont and appreciates the sting out of the ground. Could make half of these Best Value bets led by Regal Magic but out of all of them he should get the best run just behind the speed and we’re getting $20 to have a throw at the dartboard . Something even smaller on Regal Magic.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r3 Fire At Will ; 3yo Dundeel gelding who won his maiden at Kal then came to town . Raced too keenly in stakes grade then ran a credible 3rd this distance range in 3yo company. Has upside and a turn of foot to be very competitive back in this grade.

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Belmont r1 Frantic War ; Luck in running and a survival of the fittest type affair and he definitely has the race fitness covered.

Betting Strategy ; 20/80% Each Way. Opened as much as $19/ $4.60 . Straight into $13/$3.60 so I’m not the only one who thinks it can run a race as it wasn’t my money (sigh). I suggest waiting until at least scratchings tomorrow morning to avoid deductions.

Belmont r1 Revitup ; All eyes on the start of this race. She’s very quick , she handles wet ground and if she can cross The Collector she doesn’t cop any kickback.. The Collector was very impressive to the eye at his latest trial , leading all the way and putting 6 lengths on them when let off the chain in the straight. Interesting if they try and keep the fav out or take a sit. I would take the sit and get the perfect tow in . The time of the trial wasn’t as impressive as other 2yo’s on same day in this race . That persuades me to side with the race proven form but it’s imperative she finds the front on her own.

Best Bet Belmont r6 Chili Is Hot ; She is having a very consistent prep and Paul Harvey is in a rich vein of form. Considering she has beaten both All Day Session and Brave Dream home at her last two 2nds ( vs 6th and 10th respectively ) , I’m confused as to why she’s longer odds. Brave Dream was enormous last start but that was 1600m , switch back to 1400m a concern for mine. The fav must be priced on the map where it looks like getting a soft lead . Not bothered how wet it gets with Chili , just need to see horses making ground sweeping into it by race 6. Confident she is the most reliable out of the 4 horses mentioned so going 40/60 % split as the bet of the day.

Best Roughie Belmont r9 Kia Ora Star ; Boy what a great betting race. 2 of the rank outsiders are 1/1 on heavy! I can only genuinely rule 1 of the 14 out due to it’s wet track record but no way am I saying which 1 just in case ! The rising 9yo veteran up the top found a new lease of life when given a sea change last preparation and heading to the Great South. Has won 3/7 first up , 2/4 at the distance including 1/1 at Belmont and appreciates the sting out of the ground. Could make half of these Best Value bets led by Regal Magic but out of all of them he should get the best run just behind the speed and we’re getting $20 to have a throw at the dartboard . Something even smaller on Regal Magic.

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Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r6 He’sgotwings ; Has finished 2nd twice in three career starts , the latest first up without a trial. Should get every conceivable from the barrier in a weak race. As long as the track isn’t a deteriorating mess by race time time I’m going to have a good bet here. Perhaps the 2yo Piccadilly Rose can improve enough with experience to run a race if looking for some insurance.

Best Roughie Pinjarra r8 Amber Mamba ; For whatever reason this mare can pull out one massive run in a campaign and it’s usually 2nd up. We found her last prep and she got the chocolates at over $20. Ignoring her first up run as it looked more like a barrier trial to my eye. She’s obviously no good thing but worth a spec on a 20/80% basis.

Pinjarra Quaddie (r6-9) ; 3 , 1 5 , 1 2 6 8 , 2 6 13 . $24 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r2 Shake Baby Shake (Place) ; 5 starts for 1 win and 4 2nds would be frustrating as an owner but also comforting knowing that she tries every time and only has to improve a fraction to turn it around. She’s even run 2nd in her two trials leading in. Most of these are get back sprinters so if she can land in front and get away with a bit then she should give cheek with the light weight . 10 / 90 % split and only if it remains a field of 8 ie 3 place dividends. Also a conditions watch here , gets any wetter then probably leave it alone.

Best Bet Belmont r8 Rock of Kaha ; Handles all conditions and is racing in career best form. Was never going to lose last start , traveling sweetly throughout. The favourite Mahaleo looks hard to beat but I’m not a fan of backing horses with over 60kgs . We get in well after the 2kg claim. At $12/ $3.20 I’m suggesting 50/50 % each way to make a profit out of place but still going for glory.

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Weekend Winners

Best Multi Leg Belmont r4 Phanta ; Won a weak race on resumption but won it by over 6 lengths in good time with 61kgs. Was super keen when the price snuck past $2 but it’s back into odds on. Should find the front and dominate all the same.

Best Bet Belmont r6 Sluice Box ; Meets Reliable Star 2kgs better off for beating it by two lengths due to that horse winning 2 races since. Very hard to bet against her under those circumstances.

Belmont r8 Warm N Fuzzy ; Is very quick and has added strength to it’s armory this campaign. Finds the front and takes running down. $7 into $5 already but still a good each way bet.

Multi is Win Win Place .

Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r7 Prize Pursuit ; From the barrier I’m hopeful we are the first to find the fence and from there it’s up to one of the best in the business in CJP to hold the front or take a sit on the likes of Calag and Sneaky Fox. We thought he was a huge chance first up in a Saturday 58+ and we backed him accordingly. While he missed by a head he showed he is back to his best . While he is a c1 in a c3 this is still a drop in class and I can’t see how he doesn’t go extremely close. With a stack of rain predicted Thursday and no idea of how much arrives in the Avon Valley by 4pm , it’s comforting to know he handles all conditions. Beanie looks a threat from a soft stalking draw. Jarman is very enigmatic but can be dangerous . Find Your Man will be hoping out wide is the place to be , then all of a sudden he is right in it.

Box Trifecta 1 2 3 4 $24 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r3 Frantic War (Place) ; 2yo 1000m races are run one way ; flat out . There will be a host of runners charging out of the gates and looking for a spot. From barrier 6 I envision we will go forward at the start and try and slot in immediately behind the Frantic tempo . We have both race experience and fitness on our side and if it turns into a War it most likely works in our favour. After a flashing light run first up behind Mia Gusto , we went to Northam to take on the older horses where he didn’t handle the firm track and pulled up with a minor issue . To finish a clear 3rd considering the circumstances was a good effort. Mia Gusto actually beat us in a trial before winning on debut and looks smart. The horse that ran 2nd then won it’s next start. As the only winner in the race it looks extremely well placed with only 53kgs and the low draw. Exporose should be there abouts with a run under her belt.

Betting Strategy ; $10 / $2.40 Best available at time of writing (Bet 365) . Mia Gusto looks awfully hard to beat but see no reason why we can’t run a place behind her. We will go 10 / 90 % split in case she runs into traffic , doesn’t run up to expectations or we jump out of the ground in the softer conditions.

Novelties 1st ; 3 8 , 2nd 3 8 9 , 3rd 2.3.5.8.9 11 , 4th field $4 Exacta $16 Trifecta $144 First four

Best Value Belmont r5 Rogues Point ; 37 start c1 horse but there was money around to suggest he could run a cheeky race this track and distance last start and that he did , running 2nd to Frigid . That horse then went straight to a Saturday race and started at $2.20 , winning comfortably as a Lucky Duck Best Bet. No horses of that quality here so $8.50 each way looks a solid bet.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 So Likeable ; Is loving Kalgoorlie racing . The significant rise in class is offset by a massive 6.5kg drop in weight after having to lump 62 kgs last start. Getting over from barrier 8 will be crucial but with Beaucount in the race there is usually a gap to slot into.

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r3 Bold Success ; Part responsible for a pretty brutal speed and left in front a long way out from home last start. Was only run down by today’s favourite in Reliable Star. If Laqdar can get it a touch easier on speed early then I think he can turn the tables . Back him on a 40 / 60 % split to cover your stake.

Best Value Belmont r4 Astro Warrior ; Heavily backed first up and supporters including myself never had any cause for concern. Yes this is harder but it’s even and from barrier 1 he should get another dream run. Ignoring all his track , distance and 2nd up stats as he’s in a new stable and hadn’t placed first up previously. $10/$3 looks good each way value.

Best Bet Belmont r6 Frigid ; This market suggested she would beat a moderate cl1 first up and she did it effortlessly. Straight into a 1MW 60+ , the current $2.25 is questionable but I’m pretty sure she had plenty of improvement in her that day . Light weight , extra 100m , hot stable , think she will handle the test.

Best Roughie Belmont r7 Vital Flirt ; She’s a very hard mare to catch but she can pull out a run from nowhere. She has never fired a shot first and 2nd up so her 2nd up effort was acceptable in readiness for 1600m 3rd up. 5 time winner over the mile , if the predicted rain arrives in time , the more the better for her. Currently paying $26 / $6 20/80 % split.

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