Best Bet Pinjarra r5 Too Much Talk ; Backed for a stack last start , the wheels looked to be spinning in the heavy conditions. Back on dry with blinkers first time , punters will be looking to get their money back in a pretty weak race.
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Best Bet Belmont r2 Capital Flight ; Has won last two starts over today’s 1000m at Northam in fine fashion . The form lines are strong and if he can transfer that form to Belmont he will take a power of beating. Fatale Femme can be dangerous dropping in class, good quinella .Confident we have On The Full covered due to the Senorita Dorethea form reference.
Belmont r3 Sentimental Belle ; Bred to be good and her trials indicate she has a stack of ability. Vampi At Play has brilliant form for this , you could back both for profit and I’d be surprised if anything else won.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r2 Manitoba ; 2yo’s in All Aged Maidens are hard to assess. They nearly always have the best potential , they still find it hard to win as we found out first hand with our own 2yo on Thursday. Considering Manitoba ran 2nd this track and distance at start two a fortnight ago despite doing things wrong , it’s hard to go against him. In Isolation a two lengths 2nd by Chang Man to So Likeable wins this race , that was a plodding effort over 1600m , not sure about back to 1400m for him. Feuding’s draw hurts his chances considerably.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 3 4 5 6 , 10 , 1 2 6 , 1 8 $24 for 100%
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Best Value Belmont r6 Media Baron ; One more go for the veteran grey over his pet distance on his preferred good ground. Paul Harvey suits this horse perfectly as the older horses can bludge against the new age “feel” jockeys whereas he is an old school strong enforcer type jockey who can get everything out of them. Last of the Line was simply enormous last start but 2nd up off long break with 62kgs is a huge ask. Startrade is flying but untested at the mile and maps awkwardly hence looking for value on a 25/75 % basis.
Best Bet Belmont r8 Nowhiteflag ; Like most 1000m races this will be on like Donkey Kong from start to finish . Even though he will be apart of the mad speed , it actually suits him ie getting into a dog fight and fighting them off. That man Harvey again , perfect jockey to get every inch out of them when fatigue sets in. Hopefully a big day for Harvey and the greys!
Belmont r9 My Baby Blue Jeans ; Has blistering pace but has options from the barrier if a couple of the other speedsters over do it from out wide. The trial was good and 3rd and 4th won first up at the midweeks. 2nd was our very own Prize Pursuit and he ran 2nd by a head last Saturday . Doh! Suggest 40/60 % split .
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Best Bet Northam R4 Frantic War ; Ridden for speed in his initial campaign , we were forced to go back from the wide gate first up and it was great to see him attack the line with gusto from last on the corner. From the barrier and with most of the natural speed drawn outside this time , I can see him lobbing in a great spot just behind the leaders. 1000m are just about a given to be run hard and I can see a mad charge for positions so the booking of leading jockey Chris Parnham is a big plus. Weighing up 2yo form against all aged is extremely difficult. You can argue that he has more upside , especially off his last run and a repeat should see him being very competitive.
Betting Strategy ; 100% wins . Has opened $2.90 favourite (Tabtouch) Definitely would be waiting for a better price than that on the day.
Best Value Northam r6 Devil Girl ; It’s 6 lifetime starts have been ordinary but her trial was sharp so perhaps she has matured . A little ducky told me the stable are confident so at $8.50 / $2.50 I’m prepared to play each way.
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Belmont r1 El Patron ; Satisfactory return when working in the breeze and fighting on into 2nd behind a filly on debut who had trialed well and got a dream run throughout. Just A Rumour has trialed well behind proven 2yo’s and could find the favourites back.
R1 Novelties ; 2 5 , 1 2 3 5 , 1 2 3 5 , field . $6 exacta , $12 trifecta $84 first 4
Best Bet Belmont r8 Vane Tempest ; Has genuine Saturday ability in this distance range , can just be a risky barriers horse. At $5.50 /$2.10 I’m willing to take the chance that she jumps clean and proves too classy on a 50/50% each way basis .
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Best Value Belmont r2 Prize Pursuit ; A hot speed will be set by Native Chimes tearing across from the outside gate. Just how much work he has to do to cross Inflation (1) , Prize Pursuit (8) and Safety Bay(10) remains to be seen. While barrier 9 is a bit awkward , hopefully leading hoop CJP can come across and slot in close to the speed. The early favourite Rulelee likely settles last and will need to sustain a long sprint but the early speed should assist it and Gold Merits . Mr Mt Walker is drawn to get the loveliest of smother runs . Each Way .
Belmont r6 Timely Outburst ; It’s natural speed should see it lead comfortably from barrier 1 whereas the favourite Burnya to Survive likes to get back and run on. While he is more than capable , think the mare will have a decent break and can hold on.
Best Bet Belmont r8 Prince Turbo ; This horse is absolutely airborne and I’m gobsmacked at the price available. He is the proven stayer in the race and is rock hard fit. God Has Chosen is the worthy favourite with his trainer Lindsay Smith warning punters he was looking for this trip before his luckless defeat to today’s rival Kaptain Kaos. Both still have to prove it though so I’m more than happy to take the odds on offer for the Prince on a 25 / 75 % basis.
R8 Novelties ; 7 9 , 6 7 9 , 3 6 7 8 9 , 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 11 . $4 exacta $12 trifecta $72 first 4.
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* Track a soft 7 with more rain to come . Too Much Talk untried on wet and Seberate has a poor wet track record. Small Stakes only under these circumstances , at current prices would even consider no bet.
Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Too Much Talk; Looked the winner first up before a talented one on debut fought back and held it off. The extra 100m looks ideal , especially from barrier 1 where it should do no work until the home straight. With a bit of race fitness on his side and nothing with much form behind them among the opposition I expect him to go very close. Madam Wu has ran well on occasions and looks some sort of threat.
Pinjarra r 10 Seberate ; Dropping from 72+ and 66+ Saturday racing where it was competitive to a Pinjarra c5. Add barrier 1 and CJP and you can certainly justify the favourite tag.
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Best Bet Belmont r4 Multinational ; The trial and first up 2nd when leading both indicate he has come back well. Being a 3yo suggests he should have more upside than his well tried opponents. Not many on pace types in the race so he should find a position near the top. Loves wet ground.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 So Likeable ; The scratching of the topweight has made his task of going back to back considerably easier. This is a fair bit tougher than his maiden win but they have also had plenty of chances. Finding the front and controlling it is vitally important. Barrier 2 suggests he should find it , up to the others to see how soft he gets it. Jolly Lace is my saver bet however any could win if not the favourite.
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Best Bet Belmont r6 Watch Me Dance ; Handles all conditions which is important as the expected doomsday weather hasn’t arrived yet so who knows what we’re dealing with tomorrow. Mapped awkwardly last start and ran as well as could be expected. Solid placings in hot form races prior. Maps perfectly this time. Each way while the place is still $2. Startrade has the ability but all 26 starts have been on good tracks so your guess is as good as mine.
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Best Bet Northam r3 What A Prince ; Pulled it’s head off out in front over 1600m last start over 1600m. Two starts ago was only run down by Ciscojoe this track and distance . Winkers off back to 1400m earns it one last chance. Surely today’s the day.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 2 3 4 5 6 , 2 , 1 2 4 5 , 8. $20 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Awesome Rival ; Put it altogether last start , running past a short priced favourite who then won easily at it’s next start. The best part of her race was the last 100m so she should relish the step up in trip. 100% Wins
Best Value Belmont r5 Riding Hood Fame ; Also going to back this mare in the same race on a 10/90% basis . She took 48 starts to break her maiden but she has been competitive in plenty of her runs including her last start 3rd , finishing along side Kentucky Blue who is $3.90 vs $20.
Belmont r9 Outspoken Lad ; Raced competitively enough in a Derby campaign and first up at Listed level to clearly be the one to beat here. 100% wins . Also going to back Canny Jack on a 20/80% basis as he is simply a wet tracker who didn’t get conditions to suit last start.
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Best Bet Belmont r4 Panzdown ; First up , 1000m and wet ground are all big ticks for this sprinter. Will be last and wide but in a 7 horse field with the long Belmont straight , that’s actually suits his pattern. Opened 2nd favourite behind it’s stablemate Angelic Miss so good to see the early move as they have now switched .
Best Roughy Belmont r7 Minnie Winnie ; Last preparation it won the Mungrup sprint then was beaten under 1.75 lengths by Clairvoyance . A fit and firing Clairvoyance would be long odds on to be winning this. Was pretty plain first up but that’s not unusual for her and her 2nd up stats are better. Drawn 1 it’s anybodies guess if the rail is ok by r7 . If it is she will be 3 or 4 back and fingers crossed can sneak up into the placings at $71/$11.
Belmont r9 Testing Love ; $6 the field in the get out stakes . 3/4 at 1400m and her form around Above The Peg , Sniparoochy and Warm N Fuzzy reads very well for this lottery. Each way all day.
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Blackbook Pinjarra r5 Bopping Blue ; Lightning quick 3yo over the 1000m who has won in 3yo Saturday grade. Went in the blackbook after it sizzled around Lark Hill trials last week in the fastest heat of the morning. Our very own Prize Pursuit ran 2nd , some 4 lengths away and he is flying at track work . Is $1.85 worth the risk down the straight 1000m first time , apprentice ridden on a soft 6, possibly deteriorating further track? It’s why I haven’t labelled it a best bet. I suggest we wait to see the conditions closer to jump and if it gets back out towards even money on a soft (not heavy) I’ll be having a crack , otherwise I’ll just play the quaddie.
Pinjarra Quaddie (r4-7) Skinny Version ; 12 14 , 2 , 8 , 1 2 3 4 9 10 ($12 for 100%)
Wide Version ; 12 14 , 2 , 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 , 1 2 3 4 9 10 . $96 for 100% )
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Best Bet Northam r4 Too Much Talk ; Found it impossible to split the two favourites here with On The Full and our tip both trialing very impressively leading in. On The Full went a fraction quicker but it led on a good track and Too Much Talk ran up behind them before hooking off heels on a slow track. Sided with the better odds ($3.30 / $2.15 ) , hoping we stalk the favourite on the fence and run him down in the straight. Will probably take the quinella aswell.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) : 7 , 1 2 , 4 7 , 1 2 3 7 10 . $20 for 100%
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Best Bet Pinjarra r2 What A Prince; Declaring a $1.95 pop in a provincial maiden is fraught with danger , especially in my current form but I’m determined to turn it around. Has run 2nd in all 3 starts in WA . First two were behind much better horses than it meets here . Last start he pulled too hard over 1600m but was still in front at the 200m mark. Back to 1400m ,winkers off to help him settle and a very strong jockey in Rawiller on to help him find late in the race . The fact an unraced 5yo is 2nd favourite indicates the strength of the field , surely today is the day.
Price is gone , not worth a penny at current odds. Early quaddie below for entertainment
Early Quaddie (r1-4) 1 3 4 , 3 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 , 5 7 $36 for 100%
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Belmont r1 Prince Turbo ; It’s hard to believe a 8 rising 9 yr old coming off 2 serious tendon injuries is in career best form but it’s one of racing’s true miraculous feel good stories. To run a 2nd and then win over 2200m at listed level 2nd up would be beyond everyone involved wildest dreams. Despite the rise to 60kgs this small field of five is considerably weaker. Odds on in a small field , settles last in a tactical sit and sprint with the big weight , enough risk to avoid unloading at the short odds but will have a multi with Revitup in r3 .
Belmont r3 Revitup (Win); Has speed to burn and the fact it was forced to concede the lead first up with a big weight and still won comfortably was impressive. 2kg claim and the lead looks hers for the taking this time . Should lead and run them into the ground. Multi with r1 and some skinny novelties to try and make a profit out of the skinny odds.
Belmont r3 Rumour Says (Place) ; Only had the one 1000m trial where she led throughout effortlessly. Likely settles on favourite’s back and $2 a place looks a good bet in this scenario. I’ll back her 10 / 90% split just in case she’s extra smart and manages to run the fav down.
1st ; 1 2nd 2 9 , 3rd 2 6 9 4th 1 2 3 6 9 . (Field)
Trifecta is $4 per unit , first 4 $8 unit and back up first 4 with field for 4th is $24 unit.
Belmont r4 Imprudent ; He was our best value bet last Saturday and it was a horror watch from the start. I had him up on speed , after only jumping fairly he settled a mile back and was ridden very quietly . Thought he hit the line very nicely under very little riding. The Awkward draw has me worried where he ends up in the run , would love to see him go forward if he jumps well enough. Opened very short but now he is out to a each way quote , I’m happy to stick fat on a 30 / 70 % split each way basis.
Best Bet Belmont r8 Searchin Roc’s ; Found it hard to split Rokanori and this filly. Think the colt could potentially be one out of the box and reach great heights in the future. The conditions of this race however suit the filly so much that I had to side with her. First up she did a power of work from the wide draw to breeze and only got caught in the last stride , giving him 4kgs. Today she gets a kg so that equates to a 5kg turn around. She should also do less work in the run. Winners win though and the 1400m will be right up the colts alley. Definitely save on him. The market has swung between the three favourites every time I check. Devoted is no doubt talented but hasn’t reached the heights of the other two and is drawn awkwardly so I’m happy to risk.
R8 Novelties
1st & 2nd ; 1 & 4 ( $1 quinella $2 exacta )
3rd ; 2 5 10 ($6 Trifecta)
4th ; Field ($48 first 4)
Quaddie (r6-9) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 12 , 9 , 1 4 , 1 4 5 6 7 8 11 13 , $128 for 100%
Mad Roughy Flemington r8 Great Again ; Ex WA veteran that seems to be well past his prime , I just thought he showed enough in the Wangoon to be a mad chance at cricket score odds. Has a very decent record at Flemington and a soft 7 is his perfect going. If it dries past a 6 then forget it and we’re talking a very small each way spec at the massive odds in case he turns back the clock.
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Best Bet Belmont r2 She’s Puzzling ; Yet to finish out of the placings in 4 career starts despite finding trouble and racing a bit greenly . Last start fast finishing 3rd when racing out of her grade indicated the 1400m should suit and the drop back to maiden grade makes her very hard to beat.
Belmont r4 Hammarmill ; Promising filly who can rattle home at the end of a sprint trip. Barrier 1 is offset by a cutaway in place so should have no trouble finding a run.
Both are short in the market , maybe we can get some value out of the early quaddie for minimal spend.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 2 5 7 , 9 , 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 , 6. $24 for 100%
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r2 Beaucount ; Free running veteran who will find the front and try and put a gap on them. Supporters will have the rosemary beads out halfway down the straight when he begins to tip toe , Kalgoorlie is a short enough straight where I think he can pinch it against these.
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