Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r1 Leica Jaguar ; Has gone back to back in very similar races after a long run of outs. Should settle just behind the speed and get past the leaders for a third win .

Best Value Ascot r3 Kelvinator ; Beat up on the older horses this track and distance in a moderate c1 by holding the lead and racing away. . While this is harder back to 3yo company , it’s a very even race and I expect Dyson to again boot through from barrier 1. A couple might have a look but doubt they press the issue if he makes his intentions clear. From there he will be hard to run down on an each way basis.

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Tuesday Tips

Ascot r1 Snippenova ; The last time she led she fought off all but the smart Street Parade. Has worked too hard in two runs since. She is very quick early so drawn 1 I can’t see anything crossing her if Paul Harvey desires. If it turns into a tactical affair then being on the leader is a good advantage , especially over 1000m. The favourite was impressive on debut when finding the outside fence down the Pinjarra straight 1000m. This is a different set up so willing to risk at odds on with the apprentice on . None of the 5 would actually shock .

Ascot r2 Outfield ; Has gone close at his two starts , both down the Pinjarra Straight 1000m. Gets barrier one around a bend here where he can lead or box seat. The favourite Military Power has slightly stronger form lines but will have to work across from the outside barrier.

Best Bet Ascot 8 Wicked Fox ; Has been given every possible last two starts , winning a c1 and getting bobbed last start when the winner got an even peachier ride. Both runs have been at this track & distance and he maps to get another great run. He lacks a killer punch so the fact he is close enough to each way odds is important as a best bet. I suggest 40/60 % split.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Albany r1 Authoritive ; This maiden is almost identical to a 1100m maiden two weeks ago. 2nd favourite Looks set the pace , kicked and was run down late by a 30 start maiden. Authoritive was on debut and charged into 3rd from the back , beaten less than a length. Backing the extra 130m , addition of winkers and natural improvement to reverse the result. Coming wide from last at Albany is not easy to do , add the swap from senior to apprentice and it’s not a foregone conclusion. Medium size stake for mine.

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ;(2) 3/6/1.​2.​4.​5.​6/1.​4.​5.​8.​9.​10 $30 for 100% ( $15 for 50% with n 2 first leg)

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r1 Rusty Dreams ; Always thought she was a very nice filly , just felt she was a little under the odds last two wins but she made a mockery of that by not only handling the step up in class both times but winning with something in hand. Other winners have come from both races . Can’t see 1600m being a disadvantage , barrrier 1 see’s her kick through and lead or box seat without doing any work and she should remain undefeated.

Ascot R8 Kings Sicario ; Came from the clouds first up and won pulling away from them in a 1200m maiden .Then ran on well into 3rd behind Rusty Dreams over 1400m so logically if she is as good as we think she is then he should be hard to beat in graduation company over 1600m.

Quaddie ( r6-9) ; 4.​5.​6.​8/1.​3.​5.​6.​8.​10.​11/10/1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​11 $196 for 100%

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Pinny Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra R6 Perfect Bubbles ; The first up 3rd , beaten under 1/2 a length by Here For Cheques is a solid enough form reference to go close in this. No luck 2nd up and Pike sticks from a kind barrier .

Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1.​2.​3.​4.​9.​10.​11.​12.​13/6.​13/3.​5/1.​3.​6 $24 for 100% (10 11 first leg) $42 for 50% other first leg numbers.

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Wednesday Winners (Updated)

Best Bet Ascot r4 Kelvinater ; If he can finish within a couple of lengths of quality Saturday horses such as Rusty Dreams and Leniency then logically he should take some beating back to this level. Expecting him to boot through and lead from the inside. Trusting an apprentice to judge the pace and rate them is not my ideal punting strategy but at $4.80 I’m willing to take the chance.

Best Value Ascot r5 Exporose ; Simply went too hard down the Pinjarra straight 1000m and was overrun as a drifting favourite. Stepped up to 1200m and was way too speedy. Controls this small field from the front again and can go on with it at a price.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r4 Kelvinator ; If he can finish within a couple of lengths of quality Saturday horses such as Rusty Dreams and Leniency then logically he should take some beating back to this level. Expecting him to boot through and lead from the inside. Trusting an apprentice to judge the pace and rate them is not my ideal punting strategy but at $4.80 I’m willing to take the chance.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Geraldton r2 Ryewood ; Had every chance on debut and while she didn’t make ground on the two leaders she didn’t lose ground either over 1200m . Drawn 2 over 1400m with Pike taking over in a country maiden compared to provincial is a great set up for her. $2.20 is short but still value as I’m very confident the opposition are all battlers .

Best Value Geraldton r5 Ask An Angel ; Track specialist who has feet issues . Synthetic Hoof Filler off is a good sign and although she finished 8th last start she would of needed the run and drops 4kgs. Her four wins have all been with Victoria Corver riding and she returns to the saddle today. Each Way.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r5 Snowdome ; In a recurring theme of today’s tips , I don’t rate this horse as a standout on current form alone but I do believe it will get every opportunity . Beat a much easier field last start by kicking through to hold the lead from barrier 1 (just) and holding them at bay comfortably enough as an odds on favourite. Think he holds up again and it’s vital he controls the tempo in the small field otherwise Beads and State of Power will be finishing over the top.

Ascot r6 Wicked Fox ; Got every possible chance in a c1 this track & distance last start and got the job done. Now goes to a 60+ graduation at similar odds ($6.50). That’s a big jump on paper but the competition have similar records ie around the mark but struggle to break through and he maps to get another dream run . Each Way.

Ascot r7 Live To Tell ; Has a withering finishing burst which she used to win first up over 1000m and then again 1100m from a mile back. The 1200m is perfect and only needs clear air to dominate this race. She deserves to be odds on , the presence of Pike on a very talented stablemate makes you nervous .

R7 Novelties 6.​9/6.​7.​9/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​7.​8.​9.​10.​11.​13/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​7.​8.​9.​10.​11.​13

$3 quinella $4 Exacta $36 trifecta $288 first 4 * I suggest either standing out 6 to win for first 4 or having the 9 winning for a smaller % to make it cheaper.

Ascot r8 The Qoukka ; Not a win betting race for me but as it’s worth 4 million I will share my thoughts and novelties. Was very keen on Bella Nippotina when you could get $5 / $2 place on Wednesday but she has been hammered into $3.90. A soft 6 or worse and I’d be back on board as she loves it. It will still have enough give in it for her to run well. She is the one who should get the right run just behind the speed and her Eastern States form is superior to ours. Pre barrier draw I was very keen on Uncommon James. His form is outstanding but the draw is disastrous. Suspect they roll the dice and push forward , working off the track at WFA and he’s vulnerable late , goes back and gives horses like Bella Nippotina too much head start , good luck jock! Amelia’s Jewel is undoubtedly WA’s best horse. Train her for middle distance and she wins group 1’s , train her as a sprinter and she wins just as impressively. Her win first up was breathtaking , the barrier heartbreaking. To win from near last over 1200m at Ascot in this line up would be quite remarkable. No doubt she’s got the ability but $2.90 isn’t tempting enough. Trix Of The Trade is 3/3 first up , 3/4 (1 2nd) at 1200m including 1/1 at Ascot. A Proven weight carrier , 1200m at this level might be a slight question mark but at $19 / $5 he is the clear value play. Resortman was brilliant behind Amelia’s Jewel first up , finishing better than anything besides her from a long way back. He is 3/4 2nd up and while everything would have to go perfect for him and not so for 1 or 2 others he is the roughie with a sniff and definite place chance.

Novelties ; 3.​10.​14/3.​4.​7.​10.​14/3.​4.​7.​10.​12.​14/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​7.​8.​10.​11.​12.​14

$48 Trifecta , $384 first 4 .

Quaddie (r7-10) ; 6.(​9)/3.​10.​14/1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​12.​13/2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​9 $168 for 100% ($33.60 for 20% back up)

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Narrogin Numbers

Best Bet Narrogin r3 Western Impact ; Resumed at the track & distance , running 2nd to a horse that has since won again , and horses that finished behind him have also won or ran 2nd. The money has come for Who Be Whatee on debut. Nice trial although a bunched finish in moderate time , hard to line up . Sticking with the race form .

Narrogin r7 Strawberry Mist ; Not an easy track to win from the car park but she proved she is better than this grade with a dominant win this track & distance last start. Providing she can get some sort of cover and blend into it she should have them covered.

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Monday Money

Best Bet York r3 It’s A Love Story ; 3yo on debut who has run quick times for this grade at the trials. Doesn’t look to be any stars amongst the others .

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Mountain Ash ; I hate to do it but I’m going with an apprentice ridden odds on favourite as the best bet of the day. On paper he gets the lead on his own terms and who in this field is going to run him down if he runs up to current form? $1.80 is more than acceptable under the circumstances on another tough day to find value.

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Good Friday Gambles

Best Bet Ascot r3 Deep Envy ; Our very own Frantic War was expected to just win the day this filly received a Pike peach and ran us down. She then loomed to do the same to a very talented filly in Rusty Dreams over 1200m before peaking late. Back to 1100m , Pike sticks and I’m of the opinion she can get the better of the short priced favourite who is first up.

Ascot r5 Wicked Fox ; Last 3 runs over the mile are more than good enough form references to beat these providing she runs out the extra 200m.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r4 Life Of Brian ; On debut for the inform Lane Train , this horse has trialed brilliantly twice. First leading comfortably throughout and then coming from last to show great versatility The stable rate him highly and I’m a believer .

Belmont r7 Nunes ; Only ran 5th on resumption but it was from an impossible position behind a smart filly . She made sufficient ground to suggest she is ready to win . Finishing only 1.75 lengths off Saintorio in a LEE STEERE Stakes shows she has the ability to take this out.

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Narrogin Numbers

Best Bet Narrogin r4 Danube River ; A horse with a record of 3 starts for a win and a 3rd should be hard to beat in a Narrogin 46+. Brings Albany form which is actually the strongest form I can find. 58.5kgs for a 3yo filly against the older horses and barrier 1 are the concerns . If she jumps better than she has been then suddenly the barrier is a blessing on this tricky tight circuit . Enough in the $3.30 to have a bet .

Narrogin r7 Wee Ripper ; Is racing extremely consistently in the metro / provincial area and drops 1 kg as technically up in class but it actually looks easier. Maps to get a great run. Was more excited pre scratchings , now left with $2.80 favouritism . All Man & Miss Alfie love these tight country circuits and Brave Contender is flying , all legitimate dangers .

Box Trifecta 1 2 9 13 .

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Sunday Prayers

Pinjarra r1 Frantic War ; Is the track & distance specialist in the field , with his last 3 starts all being here for a win and 2 2nds. That was in maiden grade and now he goes to a c3 and still rises 2kgs which is a real head scratcher. $2 is pretty skinny but at the same time there are only 3 realistic chances in a field of 6 and the other two are only paying $3. Hoping the race fitness , outside barrier and straight track experience help him go back to back . I will say it’s probably a no bet race for most however seeing as he’s our horse I will experiment with the novelties.

Quinella & Exacta ; 2 , 1 & 3 . (Frantic has to win for exacta , finish 1st or 2nd behind one of the other 2 for quinella) Equal stake on each.

Best Bet Pinjarra r2 Super Snippy ; If Frantic War gets the job done as a $2 favourite in r1 then logically $2.90 for a horse that has finished on his heels at his only 2 starts seems value. Unfortunately that didn’t work out at Albany on Friday with the 3rd placegetter but with straight track experience and the 3kg claim he is clearly the horse to beat. Outfield hasn’t trialed since October but the market has him a very close 2nd favourite and Chris Parnham has taken the ride . Very wary.

Early Quaddie ( r2-5) 2 6 , 1 4 6 8 9 , 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 , 4 . $90 for 100%

Pinjarra r7 Vast Art ; 2/4 this prep and the 2 misses were at Ascot , suggesting he prefers the roomier tracks and they weren’t terrible runs either. Also looks to be appreciating getting out to a mile if last start is anything to go by , easily his best win. This is harder but he’s got the upside to cope.

Quaddie ( r6-9) ; 1 2 3 5 6 8 , 3 , 3 , 4 7 10 . $18 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Mantelli ; Hasn’t won since the 21st Nov 21 . He does boast plenty of places to city class horses however. The two 3yo’s in Marmooga and Ex Sport Girl have more upside but are coming from inferior form references . He’s no good thing but goes around as my best bet due to the value in the $4.40 .

Best Value Ascot r9 All In Red ; Put the writing on the wall 2 starts ago , running into 3rd and the form has been franked. Had no hope from the wide barrier last time and still ran on well. Gets a soft run on the fence from barrier 1 , with some luck in running she can figure late with the light weight at $15 each way.

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Albany Analysis

Best Bet Albany r1 Antique Miss ; Frantic War form simply must stack up in an Albany maiden. She was on debut there and although was under pressure she stuck to her guns and come again late , only beaten 1/2 a length . On that run you would imagine the slightly softer tempo of 1200m is ideal and she is drawn to hopefully box seat , otherwise lead them up. Another short price fav which hasn’t been very fruitful lately but I’m pretty confident here.

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Gero Gambles

Geraldton r3 Whole Lotta Tasha ; Not a tip , just an update on our own runner. While she is unlikely to figure today it’s important to remember she has only had 2 starts and both had genuine excuses. Has been going much better in between runs at home . Today is an important stepping stone for her future and we are hoping for an improved showing. $13 a place is not the worst bet in the world with a senior going on but it’s all about the long term at the moment.

Best Bet Geraldton r4 Ask An Angel ; In a rare coincidence she is a half sister to Tasha . Doing little in the metro area she has come of age in the midwest as a 4/5yo winning 4 of her last 5 . Each time they raise the bar she answers and she is the reason we still have faith in Whole Lotta Tasha if given time . Quite obviously she has feet issues as her runs have been spaced and she has pads on but first up last time she had the dreaded bar plates on and still won. She has had a trial in between and lost the rider so we are putting a fair bit of faith in her . Bake Some Maybe’s is going well at the provincials without winning , while this is easier I prefer the winning strike rate Angel possesses .

Geraldton r5 Iht’s Closing Inn ; Confident it is the best horse in the race , it’s definitely the one with the most upside . Trusting ZJP to slot in somewhere near the back and have last crack at them. She looks hard to hold out with the 3kg claim making life easier.

Geraldton r7 Mocha Dream ; While he has a task from the horror gate , he overcome a similar scenario last start and the extra 100m is in his favor.

With the two Durrant runners being pretty skinny , I suggest a system 2/3 with the 3 tips. If two win it’s a return , all 3 is a fill up. If the first 2 lose then a decision to try and get square can be made on the last one.

Quaddie (r4-7) ; 3 4 9 , 6 , 1 2 5 6 7 8 12 , 1 $21 for 100% .

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r5 El Patron ; Has competed in better races than this and had a horror run first up but still finished within a length of today’s rival Simple Logic . There’s not much meat on the bone at $2.15 so personally I’ll be concentrating on the quaddies.

Early Quaddie (r1-4) 2 3 , 2 4 , 1 2 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 14 , 2 $44 for 100%

Quaddie (r4-7) ; 2 , 1 5 , 3 5 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 $52 for 100%

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