Best Bet Ascot r5 Snowdome ; In a recurring theme of today’s tips , I don’t rate this horse as a standout on current form alone but I do believe it will get every opportunity . Beat a much easier field last start by kicking through to hold the lead from barrier 1 (just) and holding them at bay comfortably enough as an odds on favourite. Think he holds up again and it’s vital he controls the tempo in the small field otherwise Beads and State of Power will be finishing over the top.
Ascot r6 Wicked Fox ; Got every possible chance in a c1 this track & distance last start and got the job done. Now goes to a 60+ graduation at similar odds ($6.50). That’s a big jump on paper but the competition have similar records ie around the mark but struggle to break through and he maps to get another dream run . Each Way.
Ascot r7 Live To Tell ; Has a withering finishing burst which she used to win first up over 1000m and then again 1100m from a mile back. The 1200m is perfect and only needs clear air to dominate this race. She deserves to be odds on , the presence of Pike on a very talented stablemate makes you nervous .
R7 Novelties 6.9/6.7.9/1.2.3.4.6.7.8.9.10.11.13/1.2.3.4.6.7.8.9.10.11.13
$3 quinella $4 Exacta $36 trifecta $288 first 4 * I suggest either standing out 6 to win for first 4 or having the 9 winning for a smaller % to make it cheaper.
Ascot r8 The Qoukka ; Not a win betting race for me but as it’s worth 4 million I will share my thoughts and novelties. Was very keen on Bella Nippotina when you could get $5 / $2 place on Wednesday but she has been hammered into $3.90. A soft 6 or worse and I’d be back on board as she loves it. It will still have enough give in it for her to run well. She is the one who should get the right run just behind the speed and her Eastern States form is superior to ours. Pre barrier draw I was very keen on Uncommon James. His form is outstanding but the draw is disastrous. Suspect they roll the dice and push forward , working off the track at WFA and he’s vulnerable late , goes back and gives horses like Bella Nippotina too much head start , good luck jock! Amelia’s Jewel is undoubtedly WA’s best horse. Train her for middle distance and she wins group 1’s , train her as a sprinter and she wins just as impressively. Her win first up was breathtaking , the barrier heartbreaking. To win from near last over 1200m at Ascot in this line up would be quite remarkable. No doubt she’s got the ability but $2.90 isn’t tempting enough. Trix Of The Trade is 3/3 first up , 3/4 (1 2nd) at 1200m including 1/1 at Ascot. A Proven weight carrier , 1200m at this level might be a slight question mark but at $19 / $5 he is the clear value play. Resortman was brilliant behind Amelia’s Jewel first up , finishing better than anything besides her from a long way back. He is 3/4 2nd up and while everything would have to go perfect for him and not so for 1 or 2 others he is the roughie with a sniff and definite place chance.
Novelties ; 3.10.14/3.4.7.10.14/3.4.7.10.12.14/1.2.3.4.6.7.8.10.11.12.14
$48 Trifecta , $384 first 4 .
Quaddie (r7-10) ; 6.(9)/3.10.14/1.2.3.4.5.6.12.13/2.3.4.5.6.7.9 $168 for 100% ($33.60 for 20% back up)
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