Best Bet Geraldton r6 Sun Power ; Dropping from a 70+ 1200m when 2nd to Corn Cob. Conditionss should suit on pace runners . If the apprentice can land there it should go close. 1400m no issue for mine , the slower tempo might even help. Designated Drinker the clear danger if it replicates it’s first up run. Yet to run a place 2nd up previously.
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1.2.4.5.6/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10/1 (10)/1.5 $100 for 100% ($25 for 25% Back up)
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Best Bet Ascot r3 Vane Tempest ; Putting a lot of faith in flying Apprentice Luke Campbell on a very flighty mare from barrier 1 but any sort of luck and she is so much better than these it’s ridiculous. Genuine Saturday borderline Stakes grade mare vs a field of midweekers. Sockoff and Glasgow Girl will ensure a genuine tempo out front , if the run presents it should be over . Only bad luck will beat her , I’m All Miss and Vogue’s Choice map best to capitalize in that circumstance.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9/1/1.2.4/1.2.3.4.11.12.13 $168 For 100%
Ascot r7 Queen Alina ; Lightly raced 4yo mare who looks a real staying prospect. Should of won last start in this grade , track & distance. With the draw and weight she should have too much upside to make amends here .
Best Roughie Ascot r9 Tin Snip ; This is an absolute raffle where the best ride / run in transit most likely provides the winner so going to throw a dart at a roughie. Won a 1500m Westpeed Platinum 2 starts ago then was trapped wide over an unsuitable 1200m. Get’s his preferred dry track , soft draw (3) and 2kg claim to run a cheeky race at $34 .
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1.6/7/3.4.7.10/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.11.12.13.15 $112 for 100%
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Best Bet Pinjarra r5 Dirty Chai ; Don’t usually label one on trials alone but she has looked super smart , with plenty in reserve. Gets Pike and it doesn’t look a very strong maiden. Expecting her to be heavily supported and am happy to take the $2.25 on offer this morning.
Pinjarra r7 Prize Pursuit faces the starter for the 10th time this preparation at Pinjarra on Thursday in a c5 1300m event. He continues to work the house down and we expect him to run another mighty race.
Race Analysis ; Expect Cross Statement will be keen to find the top with the blinkers going on and you would imagine Via Monte would be happy to take his back with 60.5kgs. Expecting improvement from Cross Statement with the red hot Luke Campbell taking off 2kgs an added bonus. Via Monte should get every chance and is coming back from a Saturday Graduation win , lumping over 60kgs is never easy in any company. Airlie Queen’s record suggests she’s clearly a fresh horse , gets in with 55kgs and Pike , very dangerous. 1300m from a good barrier (3) is the perfect scenario for Prize Pursuit. We have gone for the apprentice to get down to 56kgs to give us our best chance of beating the topweight. The plan will be for him to jump cleanly , find the two leaders backs and produce him 1/2 way up the straight , that’s when he does his best work and if he gets that opportunity he should be very competitive.
Betting Strategy ; 20 % win 80% place. Currently sits at $6 / $2 most operator’s . That’s close to where I have him but am happy to wait for better . All the early money is for Hint of Mint . ($3.90) I don’t rate her chances in front of the other 4 mentioned but early moves should always be respected. *SCRATCHED Also been a nibble for Airlie Queen ($6) and that one I totally understand at the value. As other;s are supported we should drift providing connections can show some restraint
Scratching has ruined the price / staking plan. If the place creeps out to $1.80 I’m happy to proceed , otherwise it’s a small win only bet .
Novelties : 1.3.4.8/1.3.4.8/1.3.4.8/1..3.4.5.6.7.8.10 $6 quinella $12 exacta $24 trifecta $120 first 4
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Best Bet Belmont r3 Sunny Honey ; Won at big odds on debut as an early 2yo then unplaced since in much harder races than he finds here. He is almost guaranteed to fluff the start and race erratically but from the wide barrier the start isn’t as vital and with Pike taking the reigns I’m hoping he can use the long Belmont straight to use his gears and get over the top.
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Best Bet Pinjarra r1 The Big One ; Has had 7 cracks at it , placing on 5 occasions. Some of those places including last start have been behind horses better than maiden grade. From the inside draw he should be breaking through.
Pinjarra r5 Cyrstal’s Dream ; Beaten by wide barriers more than anything at her two career starts . Both runs have been full of merit and draws much better this time. Only has to run out the 1400m to win here. Zooropa should be hitting the line but always tough to win from the carpark .
Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; 1.2.3.5.6.7.8.11/1.2.6.7.9/(3).12/1.3 $80 For 100% ( $20 for 25% back up )
Pinjarra r8 Big Swoop ; Last few runs since returning from the dirt season have been massive including last start when returning to the winners stall. Gets every opportunity to dictate the pace on speed and go back to back.
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Best Bet Ascot r7 Alsephina ; Horses with her record (8 starts 6 wins 2 places) don’t need much of a write up. 3/3 at Ascot including 1 at 1600m . Her first up win was arrogant and her past tells you she doesn’t run a flat one. Above the Peg , Megazone and Casino Seventeen can all give her a race but don’t have the same killer punch .
Ascot r8 Alaskan God ; Some have been disappointed with his last 2 starts. They were group 1’s and both the mile 2nd up and wfa 1800 3rd up are a totally different scenario to today. His last 100m last week was actually great. I have said all along wait til he gets out to a trip and here he is on 55kgs , 1 off the minimum . I would be chips in from a gate but drawn wide at Ascot at $2.15 is a risk. Some short priced backmarkers have come undone recently , watch the earlier races and proceed with caution .
Best Value Ascot r9 Resortman ; This race is run between Winterbottom horses stretching out 200m to 1400m and Railway horses coming back 200m. Resortman had a great run in the Railway and ran out of his skin to finish 4th with topweight . Comes back to his sweet spot distance wise and gets Oliver . He has ridden a couple of peaches over the carnival and I can see Resortman settling midfield with galloping room and being in the finish. Going heavy place each way (10/90%) at the juicy odds on offer. Kissonallforcheeks is actually rated on top , she ticks all the distance , weight and barrier boxes. Kementari won this race last year , has been set for it and has solid form behind the cream of the crop over East, massive chance. Vilana has the ability but can’t back a horse that’s had two setbacks on a firm Ascot in a race like this.
R9 Trifecta ; 1.2.9.14/1.2.9.14/1.2.5.7.8.9.14 $60 for 100%
Quaddie (r7-10) 3 , 5 , 1 2 9 14 , 4 11 13 14 . $16 for 100%
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Best Value Ascot r6 Missalfie ; We have identified her as a York specialist and cashed in on her recently at each way prices where she has won 3 of her last 4 races. Granted her Ascot record leaves a lot to be desired however I highly doubt she has raced here when in this vein of form , 1800 is her ideal distance range and she maps to get a great run on the minimum weight. $13 is a tempting enough carrot for me to have a decent each way bet. We also found today’s fav Surveillance last start at a price based on his Northam track & distance record . $3.30 looks a little skinny compared to our selection , 1800 possibly on his limit . It was a great win though and goes in the Quaddie.
*EDIT she has firmed into $8 overnight with no deductions. Still worth a bet but not going as hard without the overs .
Best Bet Ascot r7 Cartanera ; Ran a cracker first up in the Westpeed Platinum series heat over 1400m , then finished off well again in the final also over 1400m. Goes up 4kgs but gets out to a more suitable 1800m down in grade.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 5 8 10 13 , 1 5 6 9 , 2 , field . $192 for 100%
Best Bet Pinjarra r8 Hear Me Sing ; Only brings a narrow Albany 58+ win to the table but has performed at a higher level in the past and maps to get the perfect run just behind the pacesetters.
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1.3.4.5.7.8.9.10.12/1.2.3/2.3/1.2.3 $162 for 100%
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Ascot r5 Karalee Rocks ; Lightly raced 4yo mare who has won 3/4. Out of a Dam named Wowee and that’s what punters are saying when she unleashes her sprint down the straight , gathering up her rivals with a very sharp turn of foot. Real Danger is exactly that with the map advantage. Opened $1.95 and would of let her go through to the keeper up in class but $2.60 is worth having a swing at and she might continue to get out . By race 5 any track bias should have presented itself , being able to make ground out wide imperative to her chances.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1.2.4.5.6.7/5.10/1.3.9/3.4 $72 for 100%
Best Bet Ascot r6 Rejuva King ; Last start finished 4.5 off Amelia’s Jewell this track & distance in the Guineas . That filly is clear 2nd favourite in today’s Group 1 Northerly Stakes. Concede he prefers a wet track however the Guineas was run on good and this is considerably weaker. The fact you can get each way at moment makes him the bet of the day.
Ascot r8 Cascadian ; His Eastern States form is far superior to his local rivals. 2 x Group 1 winner , 4 x WFA winner , 2/2 at the distance , he ticks all the boxes. Amelia’s Jewel could be a superstar. She gets 9kgs off the fav under the conditions and barrier 1. Despite the weight , WFA are tough hard fought races so I’m sticking with the 8yo warhorse over the brilliant filly. She needs to go to another level but I’m aware she has been trained for this all along and she is a danger. From a punting perspective Treasured Star looks the value. Nothing wrong with her run in the Railway from the horror gate , gets a great run here. Alaskan God can improve out of sight as the distances increase , better suited to handicaps in this grade. WFA makes the task significantly tougher for Trix of the Trade from the horror gate. Bustler a query at 1800 but get’s 52kgs.
R8 Trifecta ; 1.14/1.11.14.15.16/1.2.4.7.10.11.12.14.15.16 $64 for 100%
Quaddie (r6-9) 8/1.2.3.4.6.9/1/2.3.4.5.8.10.11 $42 for 100% (skinny)
2.4.8.9/1.2.3.4.6.9/1/2.3.4.5.8.10.11 $33.60 for 20% (wide)
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Best Bet Northam r4 Lucky Sue ; Her early 2yo form was quite strong and she ran 2nd to another handy 3yo filly this track and distance last start. Not much depth to this maiden and she gets her chance to win one.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) 1 , field , field , 5. $72 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r6 Sky Duke ; Has placed all 3 starts this prep and last two were behind much smarter opposition than it meets here. Maps to lead or box seat and win.
Belmont Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 , 3 , field , 4 (7) $96 for 100 % ($19.20 for 20% back up)
Dangerous Quaddie in that if Miss Drakova wins first leg like form suggests the dividend could be very skinny. Just think 3yo coming back from 1600m Champion Fillies , she might be vulnerable but no clear dangers so it’s take the field and hope.
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Best Bet Geraldton r6 Galaxy Affair ; It’s metro form just has to stack up here. Being a 3yo and using Taj Dyson’s claim see’s it very well weighted. Just has to handle the good 3 to beat these.
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 2 , 1 3 8 , 1 2 4 5 7 8 10 11 , 1 2 4 11 . $96 for 100%
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Ascot r1 Revitup ; There were big doubts on him running out a strong 1200m going into the Placid Ark . Despite being no match for the unbeaten My Bella Mae , he gave a good kick when challenged and beat the rest comfortably including some pretty handy 3yo’s. If Pike can slingshot to the front early without doing too much work then he should take some running down . Charge kicking up and making him work early is the map issue. That scenario brings Featherweight and River Rubicon right into calculations.
Best Bet Ascot r2 Bitofmerit ; Has won 3/4 , all first up over 1000m . Only defeat was only time he has raced twice in a prep and he was diagnosed with a virus post race. He ran down a race fit River Beau in his trial which is a fair indication he is feeling good. Has been slightly easy in pre post markets (2.25 - 2.60) and I get it. Run on sprinters over 1000m , Ascot first time , heart in mouth stuff. Still thinks if he gets his chance and performs at his best he rounds them up. If he’s not ready then Moi Choux was very impressive first run in WA and is good insurance at $10.
Ascot r5 Prize Pursuit ; See Main blog for write up
Betting Strategy : $10 / $3 is not enough for me to get involved. I’m going to play the novelties for a small percentage .
3.10.12/1.3.4.5.9.10.12/1.3.4.5.6.9.10.11.12/1.3.4.5.6.9.10.11.12.
$18 exacta , $42 33% trifecta or $38 5% first 4 .
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; (1.) 2/2.9.11/1.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.11.12/3.10.12 $99 FOR 100% ( $25 FOR 25% BACK UP)
Best Value Ascot r7 Lady Chant ; If you were on like me last time you would of been terribly disappointed with the result. The simple facts are once she settled practically last she had no hope . Not sure if she is just a horse that can’t hold a position early or they are simply going round with 1 race in mind being the Perth Cup . Hoping rather than expecting she settles closer from barrier 2 and we find out if she’s up to this level at big odds. Pure Devotion is the All In Perth Cup favourite and is clearly the one to beat in this.
Ascot r8 Boxed Trifecta 2 4 13 14 ; Last year I declared Elite Street and watched in horror as it suffered a bleeding attack. While I think it will run a mighty race again we only have the first up run to go off which while a little plain was first up no trial on a leaders bias day. Going to back him to bounce back with two of the other leading local hopes in Miss Conteki who only needs a tow into the race to be super dangerous and This’ll Testya who is airborne . Villana is the visitor I’m most wary of .
Quaddie (r6-9) 2 3 6 11 , 13 14 , 2 4 13 14 , 3 4 11 $96 for 100%
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R4 Sun Chacen ; A repeat of first up run when finishing a 2 length 3rd to Keytrade & Fiorucci Mama despite being tardy away would go very close here. Didn’t trial leading in and has won 2nd up previously . $4.80 looks good value in a very even race , shame it’s no third div.
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Best Bet Northam r2 Trionfante ; Smacked them on debut this track and distance in maiden grade then went to a 3yo Omwly and ran 2nd. Drops back to a c1 and even gets a kilo off for being a 3yo filly.
Best Value Northam r7 Surveillance ; Out of his 4 career wins , 3 have been at this track and distance. Gets a 3kg claim , well drawn and goes around at $9 each way. The concern is So Likeable drawn inside him. Both like to roll along in front , trusting the apprentice to not get into a war and save something for the straight.
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Best Bet Belmont r4 Samaria ; 3rd on debut over 1100m , won her maiden with authority and then ran a narrow 2nd in a c3 over 1200m. Drops back to a c1 and should bounce straight to the front and take serious catching.
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Belmont r6 Fiorucci Mama ; Maps to control it out in front and from there should be hard to run down. 1200m as far as she wants to go , especially with topweight but coming back 100m and down in class should see her go close.
Best Bet Belmont r7 Hammarmil ; Up and coming mare who is yet to miss a place in 5 starts. This is her toughest test but she’s drawn to get the perfect run just off them with cover and finish over the top. Karalee Rocks profiles very similar and has a lethal turn of foot. Her barrier means she will have to give us a decent head start so at the price differential I’m happy to go that way.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 , 1 , 9 , 2 3 4 10 11 14. $48 for 100%
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Best Bet Ascot r4 Written Matter ; Has always shown above average ability and it looks like he has added consistency to his bow. Was never going to lose once he found the front last start. Finds the front again , good use of claim , just has to run out 1400m to win again.
Ascot r5 Sniparoochy ; Ultra fast winning machine drawn to get every chance. Scared stiff of Baby Paris but they both ran over 1000m on the same day last start and the favourite ran almost 1/2 a second quicker.
Ascot r8 Trix of the Trade ; Massive win first up with 61kgs , huge run for 3rd from well back 2nd up and now peaks from an ideal barrier over 1600m on the minimum weight . Alaskan God is a potential superstar , just cant have him giving Trix a start or harder run and beating him over 1600m . 1800m and above he can dominate WA racing no doubt and still hard to beat. Ironclad has decent eastern states form , big effort to back up 7 days with a flight included. Buster Bash and Marocchino are two tough free wheeling on pacers who wont give in without a fight at big odds.
R8 Novelties ; 16/5.7.8.9.13/1.2.5.7.8.9.10.13.14.15/1.2.5.7.8.9.10.13.14.15 $5 exacta $45 trifecta $360 first 4 .
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Best Bet York R3 Weapon Of Choice ; Last two starts at this track and distance have been a win and an extremely unlucky 3rd when only beaten a small margin and we know how important handling the circuit is here. Maps to get a better run than the favourite who is dropping back in distance.
Best Multi Leg York r6 Miette Star ; Really should be a rinse and repeat of last start when jumped to the front and spaced them same track , distance , class. $2.45 opening price was a steal , 1 scratching and heavy support into $1.90 means I’ll leave it for the thrill seekers but it should justify it despite this race being ever so slightly stronger than last time.
Best Value York r8 Miss Alfie ; Another track & distance specialist who we made our Best Bet cup day and she didn’t disappoint . Margin was narrow but she did a power of work and refused to let them past. Goes up 1.5kgs but there is more speed in this so can sit off them and get a kinder run. King Kashoo was favourite that day and I can’t fathom why he is $3.20 today and we are out to $7 but I’ll happily accept it on an each way basis.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; field , 7 , 1 2 3 5 6 7 9 10 11 , 5 8 9 . $189 for 100% .
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Best Bet Northam r1 Deetea ; Have sided with the best race day form . Had no chance from the draw first up and should get a better run here. Equal fav Torpedo Man might find the top and there’s no better place to be for this track and distance. Being race 1 we will have to just roll the dice pattern wise and hope it’s not dynamite leaders.
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