Best Bet Albany r3 Sneaky Fox ; Last start he got past a very fast inform mare . Think he leads today . You have to catch him on the right day , considering Rojers trains 3 of the 6 the market moves should be a valuable guide, he was well backed when winning last start. It’s a shame it’s only pay 1 & 2 , only a small investment for me.
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Ascot r1 Keytrade ; Ran past Prize Pursuit into 4th over 1200m first up in heat 1 of this series in a race that was dominated from those close to the speed. Then went to a 1300m c3 and finished best to get the job done. Extra 100m suits and in a capacity field lottery he should be one of the best swoopers providing you can make ground early. Each way all day.
Best Roughie Ascot r3 French Martini ; Any winning 3yo out of this crop must have a level of ability so when he opened $101 I thought why not have a small spec bet. Unfortunately I was too slow but you can still get 50s . From an inside draw and Natasha Faithfull riding winners for fun it is worth a little throw at the stumps .
Best Value Ascot r5 Lady Chant ; Her only win to date was the WA Oaks , a form line that looks good on paper however often doesn’t amount to much. She backed it up however with a 2nd in the 2500m SA Classic. Furthermore she looked terrific in her recent trials. Forget her first up run , with 61kgs it was nothing more than a glorified barrier trial , held up on the rail and cruising to the line. While she will appreciate getting out even further , she is drawn to not have to settle too far back in a race with little tempo on paper and she drops a massive 7kgs down to the minimum 54kgs. $23 / $5.50 looks crazy value. There’s a pre noms Perth Cup market (Tabtouch). If the likes of Alaskan God don’t go there she would be a decent bet at 21’s .
Best Bet Ascot r9 Devoted ; Pike’s back in town and every tipster and there horse is tipping him to win the last and get the highly talented gelding into next weeks Railway Stakes. I concur with this opinion and rather than back him at the shorts here , I am going to back him in the all in Railway market as wearing these colours and having Pike on , I’m certain he will replace Alaskan God as favourite . Stand out in Quaddie and Novelties.
r9 Novelties ; 10/1.5.12/1.2.4.5.6.11.12/1.2.4.5.6.8.11.12.13 $3 exacta , $18 trifecta $126 first 4
Quaddie ; r6-9 ; 1.3.5/1.10/4.7.10.11/10 $24 for 100% (skinny version)
1.2.3.4.5.9.12/1.10.14/4.7.10.11/10.12 $42 for 25% (wide version)
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Best Bet Belmont r7 Starry Heights ; Showed a sharp turn of foot to win his maiden at just start two. His racing pattern should offset the barrier providing you can make ground. We are paying Pike tax on the price , it’s worth it more often than not.
Belmont r8 Bernbrae ; Beat up on moderate maidens at just start 4 at $1.40 over 2100m. Overcome a mad leaders bias in the process. Granted it was as weak a race as you could find but it is more about the upside with young stayers as the others go around and around without much success. Durrant stayer’s tax this time , she is very short. Riding Hood Fame was 50’s last night. She is $26 now and is 1 win from 60 starts but she has run 2 2nds in this class recently and beat Crezee home who is $10 here.
R8 Novelties : 14/3.4.5.16/2.3.4.5.6.13.16/2.3.4.5.6.7.8.11.12.13.16 $4 Exacta , $24 trifecta $216 first 4
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 2 8 9 / 3 4 5 10 / 11 / 14 $12 for 100%
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Ascot r4 Missile Storm ; Dropping from a 3yo 0MWLY where he ran 2nd to an All aged maiden is right in my wheelhouse as a punter. The only thing holding it back from best bet status is the barrier.
Best Bet Ascot r5 Mojo’s Luck ; Was first up no trial when settling way back before running on late over 1400m. Stays in the same class , drawn better and fitter . 3yo against the older horses at each way odds , life is good!
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Best Value York r8 Chokslam ; York is a horses for courses type track and Chokslam is 2/2 at the track and distance . While others such as Billy Ray , Native Chimes and Crescent City have stronger recent form lines , I’m willing to take the value on offer at juicy each way odds.
Best Bet York r9 Missalfie ; Copy n paste from above. Her two starts this track and distance have produced a 2nd to Chokslam and a win. While her other runs have been ok , over 2000m is a stretch . If Chokslam runs a race in the cup then I don’t expect the $6.50 each way to last.
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Ascot r4 Kosta’s Crown ; Was widely crowned as WA’s best maiden with multiple top 4 finishes in our top 2yo races last season . Finally shook that tag last start when they took luck out of the occasion, straight to the front and winning effortlessly in a maiden. Not worried about the big jump in class , as I’ve mentioned on numerous occasions , this crop of 3yo’s are the strongest in my lifetime. If it handles the extra 200m then it is clearly the horse to beat. If it doesn’t then Trade War , Stella Vista and Penny’s Afield will all be charging home.
Best Bet Ascot r5 Bustler ; Placed to perfection to remain undefeated in 3 starts to date , he know steps up to 3yo listed level as a $2.25 favourite but in a tactical affair he has the best turn of foot and racing manners in the small field . If it’s not dynamite leaders then he will win in my humble opinion.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 2 5 6 7 , field , 8 ( 2 4 7 ) , 5. $45 for 100% ( $33.75 for 25% )
Ascot r8 Resortman ; What more can we say except copy and paste from his whole remarkable campaign that started in July. The WFA conditions means he meets most rivals on very favourable terms and he draws to sit midfield with cover which he prefers to the inside run he was forced to take last time. Massimo leading on his terms the main danger .
Ascot r9 Prize Pursuit ; While he goes up considerably in class , he does so in fantastic order and is drawn to get a lovely run just behind the speed from the perfect gate. Full field of 16 means whatever wins will need some luck so I’m happy to have a small nibble on a 10/90% basis at big odds. Couldn’t talk you out of many in this race so the novelties look impossible. 3 4 5 (10) 11 14 16 look the main chances outside of our own if you want to box them up for a small percentage ,
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1 2 4 5 6 10 11 12 , 4 5 12 14 , 5 (2) , 3 4 5 10 11 14 16 $224 for 100% (44.80 for 20%)
WA REPRESENTS
Rosehill r7 Sheeza Belter ; She will relish getting back on good ground more than anything else in the race. Raced without luck first up on wet ground. Going back to the crop of WA 3yo’s , this one is the best performed of all of them so far . Her Qld winter carnival form (on good ground) will win this race providing it’s not a dynamite leaders / rail bias day . Pike on adds to the WA flavour.
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Oaks She’s Extreme ; Very hard to go past the favourite in the Oaks. Beaten 1/2 a length behind Sharp n Smart in the Spring Champion stakes when you could strongly argue she should have won. Track a soft 7 with showers forecast and she loves it wet. Already a group 1 winner she is rated miles above her opposition and meets them at level weights. Synthetic Hoof Filler is a red flag gear change but you couldn’t imagine they would risk such a valuable filly if she wasn’t right to go.
Best Bet Ascot r3 Admiration Express ; Both runs to date have been good with very strong form lines for a maiden. She looks like the step up to 1400 will be ideal. The market says it’s a 2 horse race and Fashion Stakes is the clear danger. I’m banking on the barrier advantage (1 vs 8 ) making it a 1 horse race! Lucky Sue was hindered by a hot on speed rail bias last start. She has something to offer.
R3 Novelties 12 , 10 11 , 10 11 , field $2 exacta / trifecta $22 first 4 .
Ascot r6 Demolish ; Sustained a long run at Northam to beat a decent 3yo maiden field. Started favourite in a 3yo 0mwly over 1600m and ran 3rd next start. Looks hard to beat back to a c1 1400m from a soft draw.
Ascot r7 Halatorion ; Concede it had every chance last start but it only just missed and it’s hard to see it not getting every chance again from barrier 1 with Chris Parnham on . Denim Pack is a massive class dropper and is the other one I’ll be putting in the quaddie.
Quaddie (r4-7) 6.9.11.14/FD/4/1.6 $72 for 100%
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Melbourne Cup N4 Montefelia ; While some of her runs have looked disappointing on paper this prep, I’m convinced it’s all been about the two cups. She was the best closer in the Caulfield Cup , savaging the line off a slow tempo which indicates she’s ready to go.Last time she was 100% firing she beat Veery Ellegant on a wet track who was prohibitive odds so she adds some class to a pretty thin race for a Melbourne Cup. The Vet’s and wet weather have really made this edition even harder than usual to dissect and it’s only a tip for the sake of having some fun . As for the novelties , I suggest mystery bets!
Best Bet Ascot r4 Market Stryke ; Drawn to find the fence first and has won 2/3 this track and distance . Any 3yo with any sort of form has to be respected as it’s the strongest crop I’ve seen in my lifetime. Mojo’s Luck fits this category.
R4 Novelties ; 1.6/1.6/FD/FD $1 quinella $14 trifecta $112 first 4.
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 11/1.2.4.5.6.7.8.10.11/1/FD $135 for 100% & 11/1.2.4.5.6.7.8.10.11/2.3.4/FD $101.50 for 25%
Geraldton r6 Honoriffic ; Coming off an Ascot 1600m 60+ and looks the class runner here by some margin.
Best Bet Geraldton r7 Sans le sou ; Ready to peak 3rd up at a track and distance she has had success at previously. All in Red hasn’t fired a shot this prep but she began her career here and has a great track record.
Geraldton Quaddie (r4-7) FD/1.2.3/1/6.8 $72 for 100%
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Best Bet Ascot r7 This’ll Testya ; Was touted as an Everest horse when she first started racing. Problem was she was a nutcase , it was a task just to get her on the float . Put it down to maturity , a change of environment or a mixture of both but since changing stables she has gradually improved and now at the ripe old age of seven she has never looked better. First up run was enormous. 3 deep no cover , she was only out bobbed by the favourite who got up along the rail. She clashes with Miss Conteki once again and the speed map is clearly in our favour. if Lucy Warwick can find some cover behind the speedsters. Wilchino is rumored to be coming out but still in the market which is frustrating. Not only will it effect the price it makes finding cover that more difficult as she would of come across to give us the 1 out 1 back prime position . The fav will have to come from last regardless and this time out wide. That’s a big ask over the 1000m at Ascot but her brilliant track and distance record tells her it’s not beyond her. Express Time has a great track and distance record himself and should get a peach of a run. Trialing well and is the value at $26.
R7 Novelties ; 12/4.6.11.13/4.5.6.11.13/1.3.4.5.7.8.9.10.11.13 $4 exacta $16 trifecta $135 first 4
Ascot r8 Last of the Line ; Only beaten 1.5 lengths first up and looked like he would benefit from the run in the yard. He’s a beast of a horse. Unbeaten 2nd up (3/3) , 4/7 at the track and distance , he ticks a lot of boxes in a great betting race stacked full of chances either heading towards the Railway or trying to qualify. Each way all day.
Ascot r9 Brooklyn Pier ; Been a while between drinks for this horse but the Parnham’s are red hot , it’s recent form is stronger than the opposition by a margin and the race is named in honour of Nanna Parnham’s 90th Birthday!
Ascot Quaddie (r6-9) ; FD/12 ( 4 6 11 13 ) /2.7.15.18/3 $40 if 18 gets a start r8 which looks unlikely $30 without. Same for 25% with insurance runners r7 .
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Track presented with a mad rail / on pace bias Sunday . Northam can throw that up but that was the first time this season it was that prevalent. Back on good ground today we will tip on a fair track basis and watch the first couple of races before investing.
Best Value Northam r5 Aramat ; Love following small stables when they are in form and this yard definitely fits the bill , especially at Northam. 25 start maiden with 10 placings but hasn’t finished further back than 4th this track last four starts. Not a lot of depth in the form here , if she can find a position from the tricky gate then she can run an honest race on a 20/80 % basis.
Best Bet Northam r7 Annihilator ; Another runner from the Jachmann yard that has raced exclusively in Northam c5’s for some time , earning a cheque in most. He’s no star but consistent as they come while some of the other fancied runners are the complete opposite. He maps a treat just behind the speed and you can get each way so looks a very safe bet.
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Best Bet Northam r5 Cosmopolitan Girl ; Won 3 straight finding the front with her customary early pace and kicking away for comfortable victories . Last start she worked hard outside the leader in stakes grade and was still only beaten 5 lengths. If she finds the top she’s very hard to run down and overs at $4.40 . Always a concern when your relying on leading or bust , especially with an apprentice on but she’s quick and all 3 wins were with an apprentice aboard. Men’s Club looks the danger map wise .
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Ascot r5 Penny’s Afield ; Much better suited out to 1400m 2nd up and Chris Parnham is back in the saddle. Not that there was anything wrong with the first up run , was just too big a task from the wide gate . Likely settle’s midfield and comes down the outside for her run so as long as the pattern isn’t mad rail she looks hardest to beat.
Best Bet Ascot r7 Snowdome ; When I saw the nominations Tuesday arvo I was stoked to see the presence of boom horse Amelia’s Jewel , thinking we would get a price for Snowdome . Despite sitting deep no cover first up he powered past them late and was way too classy. While little separated them when markets opened and still doesn’t , they have flipped and Snowdome holds favouritism . Amelia trialed like a superstar before racing as a 2yo and was simply breathtaking in winning all 3 starts at listed / group level. The boom is warranted but I must say the trials this time in have been below what she produced last time. This could be for several reasons . She is being set for the Group 1 Northerly Stakes which is a WFA 1800m event run towards the end of November. If this is her grand final then she won’t be 100% wound up yet. She could be doing everything asked of her in the trial and be kidding punters . I’m sure If she sees daylight early enough in the straight she will be charging home but I think Snowdome will be traveling too strongly out in front to reel in , just a shame I’m not the only one thinking this and were not getting overs.
Best Value Ascot r9 Chili is Hot ; Type of horse that always gives 100% and when punting each way that’s a trait I love in horses. Should get every chance just behind them from the good gate and be fighting out the finish. $9.50 is great value each way.
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Best Bet Ascot r9 Classic Encounter ; Only brings Geraldton maiden form to the table but it went toe to toe with a cerise ‘n’ white buddy Central Force 2 back . He ran a credible 4th in a 3yo SWP Saturday . Last start sat in the breeze and was a class above. Agree with the market in that Vitalize will be the hardest to hold out.
Best Value Geelong r8 Luncies ; Needs to win to force his way into the Melbourne Cup , currently sitting in 39th position in order of entry. Has run two crackers this preparation including a close up 6th in the Turnball Stakes. WA superstar Damien Lane booked , $10 each way looks a good bet. Bet365’s Melbourne Cup Market includes money back if it doesn’t get a start. I have backed Luncies at $101 . If he wins today or Derby Day and makes the field he will be much shorter ( already $50 / $60 most other operators) and I can lay it off on betfair for guaranteed profit . If he doesn’t he most likely doesn’t start and I get my money back.
Geelong r9 Mac n Cheese ; Flies fresh and by all reports is ready to run from a perfect barrier at a great each way price.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Magical Reign ; This horse loves Kalgoorlie. Has had 2 runs for the new stable and both have been crackers. Won’t be a pretty watch , she will be out the back and trying to swoop them out wide but the apprentice won on her in that fashion 2 runs ago . Yet to win at this distance so while I’ll be going straight out , 30/70 % might be the safer option.
Kalgoorlie r6 No Whispering ; Think it finds the front and controls and from there it should take a stack of beating. Actually more confident of it winning then best bet above however it’s also less value at $2.25.
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Ascot r2 Prize Pursuit ; Ain’t No Other Man , Requisition and Sneaky Fox are the likely pace setters. The barrier draw wasn’t so kind this time and we jump from 10/12 with 60kgs. Hopefully the 3 mentioned above turn it on and either open up a gap for jockey Brad Rawiller to slot in or there is a 3 deep train to track into the race on the corner. Ain’t No Other Man is deserved favourite from the ideal draw and use of 3kg claim. His form behind Karli’s Karma and Let’s Galahvant is very strong for this grade. We have the rest covered on form and ability , just need to overcome the gate . Requisition struggles to see out 1200m but is going well , Dance Cockey had a big Broome season and has been competitve since returning to town.
Betting Strategy ; Not enough value in $4.40 for me to have a win bet , around $6 gets me interested. Think we can base the novelties and early quaddie around the two favourites.
Novelties ; 2.3/1.2.3.9/1.2.3.4.9/1.2.3.4.5.7.8.9.11 $6 Exacta $18 trifecta $108 first 4
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 2 3 , 4 , 1 2 5 6 8 9 10 , field $168 for 100%
Best Bet Ascot r3 Tri For Us ; Most are expecting a duel up front between free rolling types Buster Bash and Native Chimes. Tri for Us maps to get the sweetest of runs behind them and finish over the top. Has run on well both two runs this prep and now looks ready to peak over the suitable 1800m. Native Chimes was massive in the Kalgoorlie Cup and if she gets any sort of peace in front she will be extremely hard to beat.
Ascot r8 Resortman ; Was the star of the Belmont winter sprint features and now should have the residual fitness to test the other class runners in the group 3 1400m feature. Has had a trial in between runs and hasn’t looked to have lost any zip , cruising alongside Devoted over 950m who is hot favourite in the last and 2nd favourite for the Railway Stakes. Should get a gun run midfield and I’m tipping him to be too strong for rivals who are still building to targets further down the track.
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Best Bet Northam r4 Demolish ; The 4 places to 2yo’s of the calibre of Top of the Pops reads well for a 3yo maiden. Obviously hasn’t taken any ill effect from his first up run when badly checked and dislodging the rider. The Parnham stable is on fire . The barrier looks the main obstacle however Northam has been playing quite even. The favourite Nyet was a sales topping $325k yearling. The fact he has been gelded already is a sign he has a bit of work to do to pay off the purchase price. He is also drifting which is not usual for this stable when they are fancied. Playhouse Patron was a flop at Kalgoorlie , he’s 2yo form was good enough. Filthy Habits was fancied in that same Kal race , did way too much wrong in running.
R4 Novelties 2/1.3.5.6/1.3.5.6/1.3.5.6 $4 exacta , $12 trifecta $24 first 4.
Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; 1 2 4 6 8 / 2 /1 5 7 10 / 5 6 10 $60 for 100% & 1 2 4 6 8 / 1 3 5 6 / 1 5 7 10 /10 $40 for 66%
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Ascot r3 Ginger Baker ; Usually against this horse , especially when favourite and last time I fell for him he again let supporters down. One of those horses that looms to win quite often but finds trouble , runs crooked or finds one better more often than not . His Ascot record is ordinary to boot. Why then your probably asking and it’s a very valid question! Process of elimination just leaves him clearly on top of the ratings. His recent defeaters in Western Knight , Advanced and Benji’s would start very short in this. Should sit midfield with cover and he simply won’t get a better opportunity to win one so one last chance …. again .
Best Bet Ascot r6 Vampi at Play ; Ran 3 2nds in her 2yo campaign including an unlucky 2nd behind a smart one on debut before going out a winner at start 4. Resumes on the minimum from a great stalking draw where she should settle just behind the leaders and she looked to be absolutely bolting in her trial where the jockey didn’t sneeze on her.
Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; 2 ( 4 7 10 11 ) ; 1 5 6 7 8 9 10 , 1 6 9 , 13 $42 for 100% ( $105 to include first leg insurance)
R6 Novelties ; 13/3.5.6/3.5.6.7.8.14/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.12.14 $3 exacta , $15 trifecta , $150 first 4
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Best Bet Northam r3 All Man ; This is considerably easier than what he’s been contesting lately. The last time he was in this grade he won with 59kgs. Would change my tip to Special Picture on a soft 6/7 , that’s about the only concern using form. A bigger concern is backing anything in a weak staying race where they can take turns. Looks the one though on a pretty ordinary meeting.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 2 , field , 1 , 3 (2) $12 for 100% ($24 to include n2) .
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Best Bet Northam r1 Speckles ; She has more ability than her record suggests , particularly in this distance range. Should of just about won last start but was slow away and held up several times in the straight. Leaving the barriers is a worry as she’s done it before but if she can hold a spot from the barrier she is the one to beat in a weak maiden.
Best Value Northam r2 Admiration Express ; This is a cracker of a 3yo maiden and clearly the race of the day. My selection is a nice horse ready to run a race on debut to keep the party going from yesterday for Jason Miller Racing. There are a stack of exciting prospects headed by the fav Sentimental Belle but from barrier 2 she should get the right run to be competitive at $12 each way.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 Prize Pursuit ; He was never going to lose last start and with the same weight , perfect barrier and almost identical strength of opposition ( you could argue it’s weaker) , it’s not hard to see why punters have zeroed in . Love Drunk Baby looks the only possible threat . Perhaps he can lead from the inside depending on what the enigmatic Sneaky Fox does . With normal racing luck Prize should be gunning him down regardless.
Betting Strategy ; 100% wins Actually hoping money comes for Love Drunk Baby to make it worth our while. At around $2.20 - $2.40 I’m willing to have a bet , Odds on is no longer my cup of tea no matter how confident.
Novelties ; 1 (5) , (1) 5 , field , field $1 quinella/exacta , $8 trifecta , $56 first 4 . (costs dbl if you have both numbers 1st and 2nd. )
Early Quaddie (r2-5) 1 3 (4) , 2 3 4 5 6 , 2 3 (4) , 1 (5) . $20 for 100% ( $90 to include bracketed numbers)
Best Value Kalgoorlie r6 STARTTHEFRIAR ; If he runs up to his best at his favourite track and distance he runs an almighty race at odds here. He’s runs since winning last years Hannans 12 months ago have been average however he is a quirky horses for courses animal that either runs a cracker or flops badly. I’m generally concerned about his 2nd up record and his attitude , he could be looking for the retirement paddock but this is the race to find out if he’s got anything left to offer. Small each way play. If Excellent Dream backs up from Thursday then he and Yeah Dardy have the obvious form lines for novelty players.
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