Weekend Winners

Belmont r5 He’s A Lucky Lad ; Have had this horse in the black book as a progressive Saturday stayer since his early 3yo days. 4/5 at Belmont and prefers dry ground which he gets tomorrow. The knock is the price. He likely gets back to last and making ground at Belmont has been next to impossible. Plenty of pace engaged for a staying race so I will leave it with trainer & jockey to hatch a plan to overcome the gate. Surely we get better than $3.20 .

Early Quaddie (r2-5) , 1 3 4 9 , 1 2 5 7 , field , 3 $144 for 100% (very risky standing out last leg tip , hopefully where playing for a decent dividend to warrant the risk

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Wednesday Winners

Important Track Update ; We have woke up to a drying soft 5 . Seeing as I’ve tipped a rough as guts wet tracker that’s not ideal. I will leave the tip there with novelties but I don’t suggest spending much on them.

Best Roughie Belmont r8 I’m Eugene ; Record suggests it is far more effective on soft tracks. Hopefully by the last it hasn’t dried out too much. Last start before a quick freshen up spell he ran 3rd to Let’s Galahvant this track and distance. That horse has won Saturday races since so @ $30 I will have a little spec each way . The favourite Tiffany Street is quite small so 57kgs against the older horses at odds on is not my cup of tea . If I was asked the most likely winner she would still go on top , just not a betting proposition at the price.

R8 Novelties ; 6.​8/​2.​3.​4.​6.​7.​8/​2.​3.​4.​6.​7.​8/.​2.​3.​4.​6.​7.​8 $10 exacta , $40 Trifecta $120 first 4.

Quaddie (R5-8) ; 1 2 , 4 7 , 2 3 4 , 6 8 $24 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers (Scratchings Update)

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Sluice Box ; Trainer openly told punters Sluice Box was not ready last start. with today and the Kalgoorlie Cup in mind. Thought he was the only danger to the now scratched General Grant so naturally goes on top. The new fav No Apology has changed ownership but remained in the same stable as the scratched fav. It was heavily backed in the Coolgardie Cup and won softly. I have doubts at the longer trip but am very wary of the market moves , especially with the Kalgoorlie Cup being Sluice Box’s main aim.

Novelties : 6/1.​3.​4.​5.​10/1.​3.​4.​5.​10/1.​3.​4.​5.​7.​9.​10 $5 exacta , $20 trifecta $100 first 4

Best Value Kalgoorlie r8 Blue Turns to Grey ; In career best form and coming off a soft win this track and distance. Again up in class but drawn to get a great run with a very light weight and is each way odds. The form around Lincoln’s Law reads very well for this and I will be backing both.

Novelties ; 6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​10.​11.​12.​16 $10 exacta $40 trifecta $256 first 4

Quaddie (r5-8) 2.​3.​8.​9.​11.​12/1.​2.​4.​5.​6.​7.​9.​10.​12.​14.​/ 6 / 6.​15 $120 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 General Grant ; Tough win last start with 59kgs. The big step up in class is offset by the drop to the minimum of 54kgs. Trainer openly told punters Sluice Box was not ready last start. Did beat the fav home in May by 5 lengths however a 5kg swing in the weights has me firmly in Grant’s corner.

Novelties : 6.​8/6.​8/1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​7.​9.​10/1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​7.​9.​10 $1 quinella $16 Trifecta $112 first 4.

Best Value Kalgoorlie r8 Blue Turns to Grey ; In career best form and coming off a soft win this track and distance. Again up in class but drawn to get a great run with a very light weight and is each way odds. The form around Lincoln’s Law reads very well for this and I will be backing both.

Novelties ; 6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​10.​11.​12.​16 $10 exacta $40 trifecta $256 first 4

Quaddie (r5-8) 2.​3.​8.​9.​11.​12/1.​2.​4.​5.​6.​7.​9.​10.​12.​14.​15/8 (6) /6.​15 $132 for 100% ($33 for 25%)

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r2 Cywer ; Yet to finish worse than 2nd in her 5 start career and you could argue she should be unbeaten this preparation. Wide draws on bias tracks have proven a hindrance , last time they bucked the odds and went forward . While she only fell in in a Northam c1 she was coming off a gap between runs and showed great heart to fight a talented rival off who had every chance. Drawn wide again I think Harvey will go forward and sit outside equal favourite Vogue’s Choice. Should be a dogfight down the straight and hoping the Pontiff can lift her home.

WA REPRESENTS

Best Bet Caulfield r7 Showmanship ; Use this horse as my punting ATM and I’m very bullish I’ll be withdrawing again tomorrow . Hard to bet early when the pre post favourite is 2nd emergency in I Wish I Win. He was awesome first run in Australia but had the race run to suit . Showmanship is 8/10 , 4/4 1400m and handles all conditions. Will sit midfield and explode . Can get $7.50 / $2.60 if you shop around which is awesome each way value.

Best Value Graceful Girl ; Winterbottom winner and stablemate to Showmanship , she looks ready to show her best 3rd up. Wouldn’t want it too wet (soft 6 max) but she has the ratings to provide great back up to the main bet on a small stake at 10 / 90 % basis.

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Northam Numbers

Northam , favourites and my Tips rarely combine for a fill up however the latter half of the program really does look like a favourite lovers paradise. For this reason I am suggesting a system 2 / 3 win bet ( min 2 out of 3 have to win to collect ) and a decent go at the quaddie for units.

Northam r6 Strike Now ; Looked slightly disappointing last run . Maybe the wheels were spinning in the soft conditions or he was looking for further and today he gets a firmer surface , 1600m and easier opposition.

Best Bet Northam r7 George Gently ; Greenness may be the only reason he hasn’t won his maiden yet. He can take some balancing but once he does he can really attack the line. Gets a wonderful opportunity to park in behind them and pounce down the straight. Starchienne was a decent debut and looks the clear danger.

R7 Novelties ; 2 8 , 2 8 , 7 9 10 , field . $1 quinella , $6 trifecta $54 first 4 .

Northam r8 Defending ; Won a c3 1300m then went to the same race as Strike Now and finished off okay not far behind him. This is much easier , the 60kgs from the wide gate is more of a concern than the opposition. Pepper Assault is 0/5 at 1300m , last 100m sees her out but if she can get a cushy run she might be the danger.

Quaddie (skinny) ; 1 4 7 12 , 1 , 2 (8) , 1. $4 ($8 ) per 100%

(wide) ; 1 4 7 12 , field , 2 , 1 . $64 per 100%

my staking plan ; 7 * $4 skinny ($28) 2 * $8 skinny ($16) 1 * wide $64 Total Spend $108

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r3 Mega Reward ; Has to carry 60.5kgs but he has a very much in form Paul Harvey, who is the king of lifting them over the line. Wet ground no problem , just has to get across outside the leader without burning too much petrol early. 40/60 % each way. Stars Aplenty gets a softer run and is a big danger. Romero finished right behind Mega Reward recently and gets 2kg swing . Keen to take on the favourite Costume Party today. Her best form wins this but it’s 2yo form which can be misleading . First up no trial on a soft 7 with no wet track data to go off . Too many ifs to back her as favourite.

Novelties ; 1 2 8 , 1 2 3 8 , 1 2 3 6 8 , field $27 trifecta $135 first 4 .

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 2 , field , 1 2 8 , 2 4 5 . $99 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet York r1 Chokslam ; York is a quirky track with a downhill run down the back straight before the home corner. Horses with previous success are a good place to start. He is one from one this track and distance and coming off a last start 2nd in good time. Very hard to beat.

York r4 Rare Case ; On speed is generally advantageous at York and her last start 4th when leading was in a much better form race than she meets here. Was super keen at $2.35 , has just shortened into $2 before my eyes which is rock bottom.

Due to the odds I will concentrate on the early quaddie .

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 , field , 2 3 4 5 6 8 , 10 . $60 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r6 Buster Bash ; There wasn’t much separating Buster Bash , Westriver Miracle and Blinder last time. The weight swing and drier track can help the latter two turn the tables. I still think Buster can find enough under the vigor of the Pontiff to hold them off.

Exacta ; 3 , 5 & 6 $2 / unit

Best Bet Belmont r8 Resortman ; Has come back off injury in beast mode . Only failure was a complete forgive on a bottomless heavy 10. He has overcome severe on pace bias in both his wins in harder races which is quite remarkable. If that bias was to present again then Phanta back in distance and dropping significantly in weight could take some catching.

Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) ; 3 ( 5 6 ) , 5 7 , 2 ( 7 ) ; 2 3 4 6 7 8 10 . $14 ( $84) for 100%

Back Up Version ; 3 ( 5 6 ) , 1 2 3 4 6 8 , 2 (7) , 2 3 4 6 7 8 10 . $21 ( $126 ) 50 %

How I am playing it ; 9 x $14 , 1 x $84 , 2 x $21 , 0.5 x $126 Total Spend $315 .

WA Runners Representing ;

Flemington r5 Regal Power; Very classy customer who is unbeaten at 1600m. On a firmer surface I would definitely be having a nibble at the $16s with Ollie on board. Will be following deeper into prep and can place today . Western Empire might also be looking for a firmer surface. Needs to improve on his first up run at WFA .

Best Bet Flemington r7 Kissonallfourcheeks; 2nd up 1400m is her ideal scenario and she is proven here at headquarters in this company. Track presents wetter than a 6 and I’m putting the cue back in the rack.

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r6 Legacy of Tara ; Caught deep without cover on debut but still proved too strong over 1300m. The jump from maiden to c1 class catches a lot out but being a 3yo filly she still gets in reasonably light. I like following small stables when they are in form and they got a winner yesterday.

Quaddie (r4-7) ; 3 10 , 1 5 6 7 8 , 8 , 2 4 8 .

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r1 Universal Flair ; Going off the 7 length heavy 10 win two back she should be very hard to beat. Leads on her ear for an apprentice who is good out in front. Obviously Azena will be the one mowing her down late . Sticking with the proven swimmer who also gets a 1.5kg weight swing to reverse finishing positions from last start on a soft 5.

Belmont r4 Cheerful Moment ; Yet to win over 1400m or 2nd up but has a Flemington 2nd and loves it wet. If he can come a narrow 2nd over 1200m first up with a big gap to 3rd then he can beat this lot.

Belmont Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 , field , field , 1. $90 For 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Runner Alert Kalgoorlie r3 Prize Pursuit ; We have gone to Kal to chase a firmer surface and a drying soft 5 is perfect. Norton bit on to try and get him to settle and back to 1200m on the advice of jockey Paul Harvey who rode him last time. His work leading in has been sharp. $3.50 fav for a 1200m experiment is not appealing personally , happy to watch , learn and hopefully add another photo to the pool room.

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Dalhousie ; Has a turn of foot to be very dangerous in this company . First run at Kal was massive , storming home from last. This is a tougher field but Chris Parnham going on is a massive tick. Hoping he can settle her a touch closer .

Kalgoorlie r8 Sluice Box ; While I’m sure this is a campaign aimed at the Kalgoorlie Cup , the scratching of Savage One presents a wonderful opportunity to win today’s feature on the way. Gets the perfect trail into it and as long as he’s wound up enough he will finish over the top.

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Weekend Winners

The theme of today is the state of the track compared to what most of the current form has been run on. A soft 5 currently and that’s due to 10mls of irrigation can you believe! Saturday has gone from Noah’s Ark on standby to a shower or two in the morning. I’m expecting a soft 5 which means all except the should handle it . Another concern is the recent pattern of on pace / rail dominance. No matter the rating the track looks tired. Making ground has been next to impossible out wide. Wednesday played a lot fairer so it really is a wait and see approach.

Best Bet Belmont r2 Strike Now ; Did enough first up on a wet track to indicate he will continue to rise through the grades this prep. Stalks them from barrier two and providing the gap comes , think his finishing burst will be too strong. The thing that strikes me the most is his strike rate of 3 wins 3 2nds in 6 starts. You know you will get a run for your money.

Belmont r3 Alesphina ; The only thing that can beat her today is the track pattern. The dangers on paper in Enticing and No Change have appreciated the recent heavy tracks . The Great Hoya can settle handy with the big drop in weight and back out to 1200m benefiting his chances. She will be back and wide though so unless there is clear evidence that’s ok today then $2.10 is not worth the risk. Even the Novelties change if a rail bias presents.

Novelties

Box 1 5 6 9 $24 trifecta

5 , 1 6 9 , 1 6 7 9 , 1 2 3 4 6 7 9 . $45 first 4

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 2 3 , 3 , 5 ( 1 6 9 ) , 3 4 5 7 8 9 . $18 ($72) for 100%

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r2 Special Sort ; Looked very raw on debut but once he balanced up he really hit the line nicely. The two leaders in the small field controlled the race as expected. We tipped the winner Sunplay as our best bet that day , tipped 2nd Fly Away Home as our best bet Wednesday ( won) , so we are happy to use the form again. For omen punters it was also r2 no 13 !

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r2 Fly Away Home ; Barrier 2 and the light weight due to the 3yo allowance looks a good set up. If it doesn’t lead it gets the cutaway and a decent head start over key rivals Mr Megsey and George Gentley . Recent form strong enough for this.

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 2 3 5 6 , 13 , 1 3 6 , field $120 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Not a meeting I’m enthused about to be honest. The switch from very wet to good will play havoc with the form lines . Some horses that have been racing in the slop will bounce and be extra fit , others will be flat and tired . Only the trainer’s will have some idea hence market moves will be vital. We found Showmanship last week and can’t wait to keep making withdrawals out of the horse ATM . Peter’s Investments has another strong team in over east , headlined by Western Empire and Graceful Girl . Both great horses , Caulfield a heavy 8 at the moment and happy to watch for a future’s perspective rather than backing them in today.

Best Multi / Novelty Banker ; Belmont r2 Baby Paris ; Returned with an arrogant win on a soft track that was very quickly downgraded to a heavy 10 not long after. Her only defeat in 3 starts was a 2nd to the most exciting 2yo to come out of WA in decades in the Karrakatta Plate . Trial enthusiasts are salivating over Saloon Bar , she is yet to win one but hit the line hard under a hold . Runs into a pretty smart one here. Universal Flair beat up moderate opposition on a bottomless heavy track , complete different set up here. I can see why she is $1.80 but I’m not prepared to have a “crack” due to being 2nd up off a wet track run , just in case she’s left a little flat. Going to attack the novelties instead.

r2 Novelties : 4 , 1 9 , field , field . $2 Exacta , $18 trifecta $144 first 4 .

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 4 , 1 3 4 5 8 9 11 , 4 6 8 , 2 5 6 7 8 . $105 for 100%

Best Bet Belmont r6 Ginger Baker ; Worried he has turned into a be on me next time type horse but 2nd up , 1400m and a soft draw have suckered me in. Proven weight carrier , up to Brad Parnham to navigate a passage from barrier 1 , hopefully no further than 3 back the fence as this horse can find trouble.

Quaddie( r6 -9) ; 1 , field , 5 9 , 2 3 5 6 8 9 11 . $154 for 100%

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Northam Numbers

Today’s meeting is littered with short priced favourites that should win however there are enough negatives to not take the odds on offer. Instead I will be playing the quaddies . I have included some notes on the individual legs and you can decide multi’s , novelties for yourself.

Early Quaddie (r1-4); 1 , field , 10 , 2 3 . $18 for 100%

R1 Tiger Move; $1.75 for a maiden trying to break through at start 23 says a lot about the quality of the field. Someone’s got to win it and on current form he is most likely. Affluential ran last on debut , 9 lengths behind Tiger Move. That was on heavy , out to 2200m start 2 on a soft 5 could assist but it’s a stretch . Everything else has done nothing recently.

R3 Romantic Ruler ; Beaten less than a length on debut with 59kgs on heavy in 3yo OMWLY grade. Down 3.5kgs into a weak all aged maiden , clearly the one to beat. That was a field of 4 , a full field of older horses is a different set up so $1.70 is not my style of punting but if it’s yours this is the best chance out of all the shorties in this preview.

Quaddie( r5 - 8 ) ; field , 2 , 4 5 , 2 3 7 . $60 for 100%

R6 Real Danger ; I am a massive fan of apprentice Luke Campbell and the 3kg claim pitchforks this mare in. I’m not a fan of backing odds on fav’s in 1000m races , let alone apprentice ridden one’s against the likes of Paul Harvey . Northam can play very leaderish at times so Mega Reward and Shock Result are to be respected. On paper Real Danger gets the dream stalking run behind them and finishes over the top but again , not willing to take the odds.

R8 CYWER ; On ability this would be an absolute moral. Has had a minor setback since a sensational run on a heavy track where the rail was hot and it swooped from last from a horror gate. Brighid finished alongside her that day and again maps for a sweet run . OH SOPHIA was off and gone with the prize before being run down on the line by a now Westpeed Platinum Saturday winner . Enough doubt to stay well clear of the $1.80 on offer , especially if the track is favouring those on speed. Good Novelty race , could even consider OH SOPHIA each way if leaders are dominating but I’m reluctant to take the fav on .

R8 Novelties ; , 2 3 7 , 2 3 7 , 2 3 7 , field . $6 trifecta $42 first 4

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Wednesday Winners

Best Value Belmont r4 The Great Hoya ; $9.50 each way for a horse with solid recent form vs a stack of debutantes who have trialed well enough seems good value. Maps to get a sweet run . 25/75 % split.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Inflation ; Chased a tearaway leader down along with No Change in a 66+ and was only run down late by a swimmer in atrocious heavy conditions. Drops in grade and distance while the claim and dry track can help it beat No Change. 50/50 Each Way split.

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Sunday Prayers

Kalgoorlie r6 Long Weekend ; Looks a good thing but after scratchings is a good things price. Absolutely flying in Kal and maps a treat. Multi it with our best bet below or quaddie anchor.

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Seeable ; Been winning as it likes with huge weights. Maps perfectly and drops in weight for the rise in class. Easy to argue Shoot Your Shot is a big danger. Beat us home this distance a few starts ago and now meets the fav considerably better off at weights. Just think we find the front from the better barrier and run them into the ground.

Quaddie (r5-8) ; field , 4 , 2 , 1 6 8 . $36 for 100%

Weekend Winners

Belmont r5 Olden ; Jockey got off last start and said he was never going to lose , running past Alimentaria who was last Saturday’s best bet that won as it liked. Drops a massive 6kgs for this . On Heavy it would be a Best Bet as it absolutely swims. On a drying Soft 7 , most likely 6 on the day it still looks well placed.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Advanced ; Going off it’s first up run last campaign when it demolished them on a soft 7 in a Northam c3. This stable generally produces them first up and it’s trial also indicated it is ready to deliver. $2.05 for a Saturday 66+ is rock bottom , hoping there is support for others to push it out a bit on the day.

Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1 2 3 5 6 7 , 8 , 4 7 8 11 , 2 3 7 9 12 13 14 . $168 for 100%

Randwick r5 Showmanship ; Been a fan of this horse since his debut in WA and have no doubt it would of won a group 1 if not for a tendon injury. Still might and the weight of money for this horse has been unbelievable. $6 into $2.70 and it’s not even race day yet. Barrier 1 and Jmac is always popular , to be honest it’s almost unders now but there is usually a tipping point where it starts going back the other way. Around $3 would be acceptable.

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