The theme of today is the state of the track compared to what most of the current form has been run on. A soft 5 currently and that’s due to 10mls of irrigation can you believe! Saturday has gone from Noah’s Ark on standby to a shower or two in the morning. I’m expecting a soft 5 which means all except the should handle it . Another concern is the recent pattern of on pace / rail dominance. No matter the rating the track looks tired. Making ground has been next to impossible out wide. Wednesday played a lot fairer so it really is a wait and see approach.
Best Bet Belmont r2 Strike Now ; Did enough first up on a wet track to indicate he will continue to rise through the grades this prep. Stalks them from barrier two and providing the gap comes , think his finishing burst will be too strong. The thing that strikes me the most is his strike rate of 3 wins 3 2nds in 6 starts. You know you will get a run for your money.
Belmont r3 Alesphina ; The only thing that can beat her today is the track pattern. The dangers on paper in Enticing and No Change have appreciated the recent heavy tracks . The Great Hoya can settle handy with the big drop in weight and back out to 1200m benefiting his chances. She will be back and wide though so unless there is clear evidence that’s ok today then $2.10 is not worth the risk. Even the Novelties change if a rail bias presents.
Novelties
Box 1 5 6 9 $24 trifecta
5 , 1 6 9 , 1 6 7 9 , 1 2 3 4 6 7 9 . $45 first 4
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 2 3 , 3 , 5 ( 1 6 9 ) , 3 4 5 7 8 9 . $18 ($72) for 100%
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