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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r6 Media Baron ; 2 lengths 3rd to God Has Chosen is good enough to win this. Loves the distance and good ground. He is not the easiest ride in that he is a backmarker who can run about a bit down the straight. Wary of the apprentice booking but at least she had a ride on him last start. If this was 2 years ago with a senior rider I’d declare it a moral. Start praying that he gets out in time to sail down the outside and he’ll go mighty close.

Best Value Belmont r10 Imprudent ; Until last start it’s best runs have been down the Pinjarra straight 1000m. Applied pressure to the well fancied NOWHITEFLAG last start and toughed it out well for 2nd. Should settle on pace with a postage stamp weight and could surprise at $16 each way. Sneaky Chance clearly the horse to beat but short enough.

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Northam Numbers

Northam r7 Mystery Moment ; It’s first up win might of only been at Albany but it had serious merit. Came from 2nd last and ran away from them late against a couple of in form older local horses. That’s not easy to do. Durrant / CJP / Peters Investments means we will never get much juice in the price but $2.50 is about right.

Best Bet Northam r8 Famous Jurney ; Will lead (barring a mishap at start ) , will run them along and will be hard to run down. 3/4 at the track including 1/1 at distance , carries 2kgs less than last start dominant victory after claim . No Apology most likely the one coming late but the likely map advantage is too big for me to ignore.

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 2 3 6 7 , 1 2 3 6 7 8 9 10 , 1 , 1 4 . $64 for 100%

Quaddie (r5-8) ; 3 4 5 6 7 10 , 2 3 , 5 (1 4 7 ) , 2 (1). $12 for 100% ( $96 to include bracket selections)

* for the main quaddie I will be playing the main quaddie for 400% ($48) and back up selections 50% ($48)

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r3 Canny Jack ; Both wins have been at Belmont on wet tracks , unplaced in 7 attempts on good. Last start ran on well into 3rd when finding a soft Belmont 1600m race in much better company. Very suitable race here.

Belmont r4 Kazoku ; Going extra well this campaign winning first up and putting the writing on the wall last start with another solid finishing burst. Unlike Jack in previous race the wet conditions are a query. Last start was soft but probably not as effected as here. Should get an economical run and we will back the hyphenator to navigate a path off the fence to get us a race to race double.

Belmont r8 Rulelee ; Comes from the same race as Kazoku where she weaved through the field late to only go down by the bob . Prefer her drawn out wide where she can build momentum and glide down the outside in clear air , wet no issue.

R8 Novelties ; 1.​10/1.​2.​6.​10 / 1.​2.​3.​6.​9.​10.​12.​15/ 1.​2.​3.​6.​7.​9.​10.​12.​14.​15

$6 Quinella , Exacta . $36 trifecta $252 First 4.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r3 Tahitian Red ; A winner over the same track distance by over 3 lengths last start. Stays at the same weight in the same class with the use of the claim for a jockey who rode his first Saturday city double yesterday. Drawn to lead or box seat , she ticks all the boxes.

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 , field , 3 , field. $70 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Multi ; The Simon Miller / Patrick Carbery combination are absolutely flying . They are a big betting stable and followed by big punters so you have to take pretty short odds generally but when the support comes you very rarely see a poor performance. Tomorrow’s main play is going to be a three leg multi involving the dynamic combo.I suggest a single on the first leg to hopefully cover your stake.

Best Bet Belmont r2 Hardly Ever @ $2 win ; Maps to get the sweetest of runs behind an anticipated hot speed , allowing her to utilize her explosive turn of foot.

Belmont r5 Above the Peg @ $2 place ; The ultimate gear change has really worked wonders for this gelding. He is in a rich vein of form and unleashed a brilliant sprint to win his 2nd start in a row last start. He most likely gets back from the wide draw and there looks to be a lack of tempo which could effect his winning chances. This is wide open , in fact we are tipping $11 chance Testing Love as our best value bet so we are relying on top 3 for the multi.

Belmont r9 It’sarayday @ $2.25 win; Spruik horse who is always targeted by the big punters. His first up win was arrogant at 1100m. Has won 4/6 and looks like he will get a dream run. At the price it’s important he does get that dream run as this race is littered with talent. If Timely Outburst finds the top without burning too much petrol she wont be easy to run down. Rockanori looked way above average in debut prep and pulled up shin sore at only defeat. Last time Ray was 2nd up Searchin Roc’s was first up and gave it windburn in the Belgravia , draw has dented her chances but she has the ability. Startrade brings Geraldton form but he dominated up there with big weights. Liwa is a get back horse but if the breaks come her way she can rattle off a very quick last 200m. Great race.

Win Place Win Multi is currently paying $9. (Tabtouch)

Best Value Belmont r5 Testing Love ; 6 legitimate chances and I like the one paying the most ($11) based on it’s breathtaking win last start. Legitimate excuses first two runs for the new connections. The favourite is a Peter’s Investments horse and our tip is an ex so it would be ironic if it can knock it off. Great 40/60 % bet. We identified Above the Peg as the main danger earlier.

Race 5 Novelties ;

1st 4 9 2nd -4th 1 3 4 5 9 10 . $15 quinella , $10 exacta , $40 Trifecta , $120 first 4.

Race 9 Novelties ; 1st 6 13 , 2nd 4 6 10 13 , 3rd 4.​5.​6.​7.​9.​10.​13.​14 4th 4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​9.​10.​13.​14

$6 Quinella / Exacta $36 Trifecta $216 first 4.

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 3 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 12 13 , 2 3 5 7 10 , 4 9. $90 for 100%

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Winter Midweeks

Winter Midweek racing as a rule is very tough. Tomorrow’s Belmont card is no exception. I will continue to study the form religiously and will still post when there is something worth betting on but I wont fall into the trap of tipping / punting just for the hell of it. If you don’t see much Lucky Duck Activity rest assured we are still here and working hard at finding winners .

Belmont r4 Charming Belle ; Had 1 start as a 2yo a year ago. Returns off the back of very impressive trials without blinkers , blinkers on today and strikes a very winnable race. The stable is on fire. Backing $2 favs at these type of meetings is not really my cup of tea but it is my best winning chance on the program.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Albany r3 Oristano ; While I originally thought this horse would be at a higher level than this by now I think this is his most suitable race in some time. Beaten under a length in harder races last two. With the apprentice still learning his craft and riding a horse that needs strong encouragement to find the line we won’t get carried away but he is the one to beat.

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Weekend Winners

Black Booker Belmont r4 Chad’s Me Dad ; Recent trial she was ridden positively over 1000m and clung on. That indicates to me that they will again be positive to make the most of the low draw and light weight after the claim. Love the 1400m first up , worried I might be going one start too early with only one trial under her belt , especially in the soft conditions but it wasn’t a long spell. $11 / $3.50 is borderline value as this is a step up compared to what she’s beat previously . Heavy place each way and not a big stake bet.

Best Value Belmont r6 She’s Enchanted ; Raced without luck last prep but still added two placings behind Amasenus . That form is ridiculously hot for this. Trial was enormous and she is a luxurious each way price ($11) at the moment. She has won on soft previously.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Atlantis Beach ; Put the writing on the wall last start when coming from another post code to run 2nd to a smart 3yo who had the run of the race. Drops in class and doesn’t need to get as far back from the barrier.

Belmont r8 Elite St ; Best sprinter in WA by a country mile. How they can possibly beat him at WFA is beyond me but the market suggests they can. Group 1 winner at 1200m , handles soft ground ( only reason I can come up with why it’s not odds on). Last time I tipped this horse as a living certainty it suffered a bleeding attack (still ran 3rd in a group 1) so I will refrain but barring horrible luck or injury it really should be winning. Valour rd is the other WFA class and loves wet tracks if there was to be an upset.

Belmont Quaddie (r6-9)

Skinny Version ; 1 7 8 11 , 5 , 2 , 4 7 $8 for 100% ( I will be playing $80 for 1000%)

Wide Version ; 1 7 8 11 , 1 2 4 5 11 14 , 1 2 , 1 4 7 . $144 for 100% ( I will be playing $72 for 50%)

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r6 Sketta ; Brings Ascot c3 form to Northam where as most of the others come from Geraldton. 3kg claim gets her in nicely at the weights. Hopefully the rain arrives as she loves wet ground.

  • Winter midweeks are hard work and I suggest small stakes . Please Gamble Responsibly

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Wednesday Winners

Best Value Pinjarra r5 Talented Escape ; Should be ready to peak 3rd up and last campaign put a couple of solid wins on the board. This is wide open and 4 lengths behind Brother Paddy is good enough to suggest $16 / $4.20 is overs compared to some of the fancies , especially with the weight differential after the claim.

Pinjarra r6 Said No One Ever ; Another one 3rd up ready to peak at his pet distance . (4 starts for 2 wins 1 second .) Down in class and $8.50 / $2.60 looks very juicy. Acting God looks a big danger and will most likely save but can’t get them that far apart in the market ($3.20).

Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Life for a Life ; First up run was enormous at 50s. Didn’t think Narrogin would suit 2nd up and it proved correct , being held up til it was too late. The same finishing burst looks very dangerous at Pinjarra Scarpside . 40 / 60 % split of stake to be safe.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r3 Kallaroo ; Former Fairetha Stakes winner who lost his way. Watching his three runs for the new stable it’s pretty obvious he needs a strong Standover type jockey to get the best out of him. Rawiller got him over the line in between two runs with lesser riders on where the horse was slow away and to my eye had plenty in the tank when hitting the line. Our Sunday Prayers are more directed to Brad returning a negative Covid test in the morning ! $2.20 on b365 is a great price providing he does .

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r2 Tadweer ; Won it’s first two starts in provincial Victoria then was thrown in the deep end in a Stakes race at Flemington. While it ran 7/8 it was only beaten 5.25 lengths behind Profiteer . It’s now with the Gangemi’s and it’s only trial was a satisfactory 3rd without his race day blinkers on. Have no idea on the story about the move interstate but the Stable excel with these type of horses . The market will decide how confidently to bet , shame it’s only 7 runners.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r1 My Marlaina ; Has won 2 / 3 this prep by running them along in front , latest might of only been Geraldton but she lumped a big weight and did it easily. Not sure what happened the 1 start in between where she didn’t lead and was terribly disappointing. From barrier 1 she kicks up and finds the front . Taking on the short priced favourite Alsephina purely on the map advantage . If you are eligible for Tabtouch’s money back 2nd promotion that’s a no brainer.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Northam r1 Blue Card ; Between them this 4 horse field has had 59 starts for 12 places. Our selection was trying out a staying trip for the first time and out plugged two of the others into 3rd. You would think he can be fitter for the run so I can’t work out why he is the roughest of the three. Not getting carried away in such a weak race but like the price . ($3.80) .

Best Value Northam r7 Comfort Me ; Let me start by saying if Elite St is ready to rock then it just wins. Going off it’s trial I’m not convinced it is. Comfort Me’s trial was huge and we are getting $11 each way where as to back the champ you have to take $2.50. Was a revelation last prep , running 2nd in a Railway Stakes. This is a proper sprint with pace to burn so it wont be easy but the trial indicated intent , not just a first up run. Cup Night loves Northam and won this race first up last year. Definitely been targeted to repeat this year and should be in the finish. $6 opposed to $11 made me lean to Comfort Me but I may have a smaller bet.

R7 Novelties First & 2nd ; 1 7 9 3rd 1 3 5 7 11 4th ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 .

$3 quinella , $24 Trifecta , $144 first 4 .

This race analysis is based on a track you can make ground. If the 6 previous races indicate a leader rail bias then these bets could be put in the bin!

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Weekend Winners

The following selections for Saturday’s Ascot card all look hard to beat but all 3 are ridiculously short in the market. I am going to play the quaddie with different combinations for different units. I will put a suggested price with each tip so If the market obliges we can consider backing them for the win.

Ascot r6 Sneaky Chance ; Kicked off it’s campaign with a 3yo maiden victory , then a c1 and a Saturday 3yo 62+ . Stays on the minimum due to the rise in class and maps to smoke the pipe behind a hot speed . Trainer has openly stated she has terrible breathing issues so I’m cautious with the step up to 1200m . If she runs it out she is the most likely winner but $2.20 is too short to find out. Min $2.80 needed. Apple Schnapps the clear danger.

Best Bet Ascot r7 Buzzoom ; 3rd up 1400m with a 1.5kg weight swing gives her every opportunity to turn the tables on Amasenus . That mare has won 9/19 and can’t be taken lightly. $2.20 borderline , $2.50 would lure me in .

Ascot r8 Otheroneson ; Racing manners cost it the race last start over 1400m. If that race was today’s 1600m it most likely still wins . 1600m usually sees Kia Ora Star out . $1.60 for a green 3yo untried past 1400m and up in class is a big no no for mine. $2 absolute minimum.

Quaddie 1 (r6-9) 1 9 , 4 8 , 3 6 , 4 7 11 $24 for 100% (Spending $48 for 200%)

Quaddie 2 ; 1 9 ; 8 , 6 , 4 7 11 $6 for 100% (Spending $48 for 800%)

Quaddie 3 1 9 ; 8 , 3 6 , 1 2 $8 for 100% (Spending $4 for 50%)

Total Quadie spend $100.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Bentley Beau ; Yes it took 12 starts to break through but quite often the confidence they gain from finally winning one flows into the next couple of runs, especially when they were consistently just missing. Suited by the step up to 1800m , soft ground no issue , ticks a lot of boxes. $1.80 a place allows you to go 25/75 % if your that way inclined. ( Safer / Long term profit punter vs having a decent collect short term.)

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Monday Money Makers

Ascot r1 Wakan Tanka ; Grabbed in the shadows last start by a progressive mare who would be hard to beat here . Gets control of this out in front with little pressure on paper and a light weight after the claim. His record of 60 starts and 3 wins with a further 24 places suggests he gets grabbed before the post on most occasions. I expect Keytrade the one most likely to be reeling him in late , he most likely settles last so hopefully we get a good enough break at the top of the straight and don’t wait for him to pounce. Good Quinella .

Best Bet Ascot r6 Thorogood ; Didn’t beat much on WA debut but did it in style from last over 1200m. Looked to do it with ease so the 1400m should suit even better and can sit closer from the better barrier.

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Ascot r4 Arno The Fox ; Should of at least placed last start but the young apprentice looked reluctant to take the gap or the gap wasn’t quite there , hard to say from the lounge. If she can keep it off the fence and produce it at the right time this time this consistent galloper can be in the finish. Very open race and happy to have an each way bet providing it remains a 8 horse field.

Best Bet Ascot r5 Timely Outburst ; Is definitely the fastest horse in the race , can the apprentice handle the pressure of riding a Saturday short priced favourite from the outside barrier? I actually prefer the wide draw with apprentices , can work his way over or sit outside the leader . Sometimes the experienced jockeys can really put the pressure on if drawn outside the kids. Great first up record , great distance record and great trial leading in. The only question is price at $2,20 , it’s getting skinny factoring in the jockey.

Ascot Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 3 4 ; 1 3 5 8 9 , 2 3 4 5 6 8 , 3 . $90 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Albany r7 Tizzle Top ; Ummed and Arghhed for ages over this race. Our selection won a very weak 1600m maiden on debut against the older horses. Despite the strength of the form , for a 3yo to win easily over 1600m on debut indicates a fair bit of staying potential. While he meets better performed horses terribly at the weights , I’m banking on him being the strongest late . Dad’s Bigheaded and Art Admirer bring much stronger form and race fitness to the table but both have only won 2 from 34 attempts vs 1 /1 . If Art Admirer starts here and not York Monday it looks a good boxed quinella.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r3 Guns of Navarone : A repeat of any of his last 4 starts in much harder company sees him going very close in this. Not really a straight out horse so we will go 40/60 % split of stake at current odds of $5 / $1.90

Ascot r3 Galaxy Cat ; Also going to have a 10/90 % bet here in the same race. While he was no match for the highly progressive My Mate at his latest run , he ran on ok into 2nd over 1200m and won his previous race down the Pinjarra straight 1000m . 1100m from a good barrier looks ideal and he can be in the finish despite the big rise in class at $13/ $3.60.

Best Value Ascot r8 Sweep The Leg ; Was heavily backed on debut , sat wide no cover and still loomed into it like it was over before peaking on the run and running 2nd to Baby Paris . That horse then ran 2nd to Boom 2yo Amelia’s Jewel in the Karrakatta Plate . Winkers on for added concentration and a better run in transit should see us get a big run for our money at juicy each way prices. Currently paying $8.50/$2.60 .

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