Best Bet Albany r4 Becalotti ; Strong winner first crack at this distance last start up in Geraldton. Staying at the same weight , her best is better than these so if she copes with the recent travel back to Perth and down to Albany she should be almighty hard to beat. Perplexing market with Queen Nardi $2.70 fav for finishing 5th behind Becalotti up in Gero.
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Best Each Way Pinjarra r3 Super Snippy ; Although he is a 17 start maiden , he has had 4 starts down the Pinjarra Straight 1000m for 3 2nds and 1 3rd. He has only placed on two other occasions. In a wide open maiden with limited straight track form (only 1 other placegetter ) , he should be a great place chance and some sort of hope to pinch it.
Pinjarra r 7 Magnasonic ; He has the ability , unfortunately he doesn’t have the barrier and carries a bit of weight for his first up assignment. Another straight track raffle , it’s impossible to tip you into him but we will still be trackside cheering him on. GO SONIC!
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Best Bet Ascot r2 Fly With Caution ; Gets a 2kg swing on last start nemesis Royal Toronado and should get a softer time of it up close to the speed. The fav has had an extra run over 2100m last week . Can it back up 1 week later fresh enough to run us down back to the 1800m? I’m tipping and hoping no.
Ascot r7 The Boss Lady ; By the time she got out in the Jungle Mist over 1200m the horse had bolted. That horse was Baby Paris and if she is left alone in front again then she will be almighty hard to run down. Hoping for something to apply pressure and that will give her a chance to turn the tables over the 1400m. Stablemate Rusty Dreams can be forgiven for last start . She raced too fiercely without cover and that’s not her go. Ridden with cover she can improve sharply back to mares company.
SRM The Boss Lady (7) Top 2 , Rusty Dreams (2) Top 4.
Ascot r8 : No firm opinion except that the Eastern States form has been much stronger the entire Spring Carnival over there and here . Overpass has been unbeatable this track & distance in 3 previous attempts. Has had a different prep and drawn poorly this time so no moral but huge respect. Maharba has beaten and placed behind the next best in Melbourne recently . The map looks good and the each way odds make him an attractive each way play if you must pick 1. Lady Laguna has Jmac and barrier 1 to be dangerous enough if the breaks come her way.
Ascot r9 Wubin Gold ; For those who were supremely confident last week , we must simply go again after that train wreck. 1 /1 over 1400m , she is probably better suited to be drawn wide where she can try and find a back to follow and unleash down the middle in the straight. Not as confident but she’s better odds to try and recoup.
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Best Value Ascot r6 All The Kings Men ; 6 starts at the 1400m for 3 wins 3 2nds , 1 from 2 2nd up and ran a blinder first up over 1200m behind one of our top sprinters to indicate he is set for his best campaign yet. $9 each way is good shopping.
Best Bet Ascot r7 September Born ; Have him as WA’s best 3yo by a considerable margin. His first two runs from terrible gates have been first class and he now reaches his big target in tip top shape from a great barrier. Should win this on his way to being a major player in the Northerly.
Ascot r9 Wubin Gold ; Mare who has an explosive turn of foot who maps to get every chance and add to her already impressive strike rate of 4/7. $3 is more than acceptable.
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Best Bet Belmont r3 Hope To Rule ; Beaten 2 lengths in a 3yo 0MWLY behind Magna’s Choice is excellent form for a race of this nature and her trials have also been solid. Goes from a field 0f 6 to a full field of 16 against the older horses but she is drawn to get a sweet run carrying the minimum weight.
Best Each Way Belmont R6 Idyllic Ruler ; Drops a kilo thanks to the 2kg claim being used today for winning in the same grade over the same distance 2nd up. Should be nearing peak fitness and is each way odds.
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Best Value Geraldton r7 Supersession ; His last win was this race last year . Has been racing against much better opposition since and although not winning , hasn’t been beaten big margins. Will sit back and unleash a powerful turn of foot in the straight. Is drifting in the market to what seems a very generous each way price around the $9.50 mark. Drakaina was untested at her WA Debut and is the unknown . She has been heavily backed and is the logical danger.
Best Bet Geraldton r8 Famous Dream ; 3yo filly who found the 1000m a little sharp on debut , then won a 1200m Bunbury maiden with ease. Peters Investments horses dominate these Geraldton meetings and she should continue that trend. On The Mark was heavily fancied first up , I was in his corner and although he ran 2nd I still thought he had every chance. . He is the danger .
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Best Each Way Ascot r7 Rusty Dreams ; Last Ascot carnival she ran 4th in the Jungle Mist , 2nd in the Jungle Dawn , 1st in the Starstruck and then 5th in the La Trice when ridden way to far back. Forget the brief winter campaign and her first two runs have been from shocking barriers where she was always going to be peaking for a race like this to try and sneak into the Railway. $8 each way is great value in my opinion.
Ascot r8 Charino ; The fact he went straight from a 2nd in maiden grade down the Pinjarra straight to beating West Star at listed level at start 2 , despite racing greenly on both occasions indicate serious ability. Maps to get all the favours from a good draw and goes around double figures again.
Ascot r9 Bon Joy ; While this is a cracking race and barrier 13 over 1200m is not her ideal set up , when she opened $19 I was salivating. She is a very progressive mare who went out in top order and her trials indicate she has come back in fantastic order. $10 now is probably rock bottom but I’m convinced she will be hitting the line hard. The Boss Lady is 2/2 2nd up and 5/7 at Ascot. I am backing both each way .
SRM Both to finish top 4.
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None of the below selections are BEST BET worthy for different reasons. A place multi with all 3 is the best play in my opinion.
Belmont r2 Art Session ; Two from two at Belmont 1000m trials and barrier 2 see it primed to run a big race on debut. Last Stylebender has great form for a maiden but is drawn to do some work in the run hence I’m backing the map advantage in here.
Belmont r3 Psycho Sista ; Went from rodeo buck jumping on debut to speed demon with the addition of blinkers , bouncing to the front and running them into the ground in quick time for maiden grade , much to the delight of those who followed with the tip at $26 . It was a weak race and now we are faced with $3 in a stronger field and an extra 2kg’s. If it finds the front it will still take running down , just not excited by the odds.
Belmont r4 On Patrol ; 19 starts , 1 win is the negative , the positive is he continues to race well in higher grade. If not for those stats the $4 would look great value. Won’t get a better opportunity to finally win another one.
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Best Value Ascot r1 Red Dwarf ; Saved my skin Tuesday with a very easy win at Bunbury. Sure this is harder but if your going to take on the favourite you might as well take $24 on an inform horse on a heavy place basis as he is value compared to the rest. Bookies are taking on the favourite Simply because the apprentice replaces Pike. $3 plus is becoming tempting seeing how easy he has been winning against these same horses.
SRM Simply top 2 , Red Dwarf Top 4.
Best Each Way Ascot r6 Starry Heights ; Found his mojo on the goldfields where he flashed home in the Coolgardie Cup before taking out the Boulder , Kalgoorlie cups double as a red hot favourite. While he is most likely on a Perth Cup mission and Pike has chosen elsewhere, he has won 9/19 including 2/4 at Ascot and $9 each way looks a silly price.
Best Bet Ascot r8 Comfort Me ; Trials were very encouraging leading up to the first up run and supporters (there were plenty) never had any concerns when he found the front. You would imagine they would now attempt to lead again and on paper it looks up for grabs, WFA means a big weight swing in Magnificent Andy’s favor and from barrier 1 he should settle much closer if not right on his back. The money has come again early and I think he gets it soft enough in front to hold it off.
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Best Bet Northam r2 Northern Diamond ; Trials indicate this filly has ability and the blinkers really had a positive effect latest one. Likely finds the lead and over the Northam sprint distances thats a good place to be. Housewife has solid race form for a Northam maiden and Pike stalking you on an odds on favourite is never ideal , just feel it’s too short.
Northam r5 Highly Spoken ; Getting closer to winning a maiden and finds a race where he can lead up in trip. Brad Parnham going on is a massive plus (great on leaders) and he has blinkers first time. Would prefer each way but we go one more time.
Oaks Day
Bunbury Born & Bred leading jockey Damian Lane has a great book of rides today and I think we can back a couple
R2 Oscar’s Fortune ; Bellatrix Star form is outstanding , last start failure alarming. Too many questions for me to bet , note he has officially changed stables to a Melbourne based trainer.
R8 Treasurethemoment ; Going for four on the bounce and won the traditional lead up race in dominant fashion. Tricky draw to overcome but looks a great chance to add another group 1 to his trophy cabinet.
R9 Poison Chalice ; Solid win first up and then no luck latest at Group 2 level. Another tough draw and very wary of Globe , however spacious Flemington will help and usually by now they are starting to make ground out wide . The one to beat.
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Melbourne Cup : I have personally backed two international horses who finished alongside each other in the EBOR Handicap , being ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (13) and SEA KING (15). Both are down the bottom of the weights and both have proven they are in fine order by bolting in the Geelong and Bendigo cups respectively. BUCKAROO was the run of the race in the Caulfield Cup , he has been getting back with slow starts so the barrier is awkward , especially as he is unproven at two miles. Vauban was widely tipped as unbeatable last year and was terribly disappointing. Again he brings superior form but I’m against him at the price on the basis of last years performance . Field of 24 over 2 miles its a social event and a bit of fun , not a serious punting race. Mystery first 4’s are a great way to chase the dream !
13 15 2 8
Best Bet Ascot r4 Magnique ; Flashed home on debut and just missed in a 3 way photo then ran 2nd to a promising horse who went on to race competitively in Saturday grade. Drawn to get a great run and ready to break through.
Best Each Way Ascot r8 Nickleplay ; Neville Parnham trained Playing God 3yo in a feature race , heading towards the big 3yo features. Need I say more? He has an army of them every year and they keep delivering.
Best Each Way Bunbury r5 Red Dwarf ; His last two runs have been a win here and a 5 length 5th to Simply in Saturday grade . Simply won by 3.5 so he finished right behind the placegetters. Good enough form to be right in this.
Best Bet Bunbury r7 Six Shooter ; He’s short enough jumping from maiden grade to c3 at just start 3 but he looks progressive , maps well and he’s number 11 in the last on a huge day to go out with a bang!
Geraldton R2 Well Played : She has 60kgs but she has a massive class advantage on these.
Best Bet Geraldton r7 On The Mark ; Only win was on the dirt at Carnarvon but that was probably to get the monkey off the back after running a string of placings here and at Belmont. 1100m might be a touch short of his best but he has the upside to handle these first up .
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Best Value Ascot r1 Canny Jack ; He has generally raced in stronger races than this and is proven/suited to the mile while the ones in the market are unknown. Mixes his form and prefers wet ground however the odds are big enough to play each way on a 25/75 % basis.
Best Bet Ascot r8 Super Smink ; WA’s best 2yo , best 3yo filly , she lost her way in the Autumn and with mares that can go two ways . Either she is a spring time horse or ready for the breeding barn. On the evidence of her two runs this prep it’s the former and she looks ready to win. Has really attacked the line from horror gates and now draws perfect to settle closer and get the job done. Zipaway beat her in the Guineas over 1600m and is all class , dangerous at each way odds first up . Diamond Scene was enormous in lesser grade first up and is 2/2 2nd up . Rusty Dreams was a great return in the Diamond Scene race but has a horror gate to overcome .
SRM ; Super Smink (2) top 2 , Zipaway (3) top 4 Diamond Scene (8) top 4 .
Ex Duck Watch
Kalgoorlie r2 Starthefriar ; The old warrior was brilliant last start , albeit on the dirt at Leinster, He still holds a special place in our hearts and it was awesome to see. If this was 2 or 3 years ago he would be a moral. Loves the track & distance and a field of five with 54kgs is the perfect set up. If he’s bounced off the trip 2 weeks ago then he is not out of it. High Pressure and Can’t Be Done have superior recent form but if they start to feel the pinch over the last 100m they just might see the gentle giant looming in their rear view mirror. I said a prayer to the overs god but $6 is not enough for me to get too excited about. Double figures and I would have a bet for old times sake.
Kalgoorlie r5 Whole Lotta Tasha ; Alway’s thought she wasn’t as slow as her results indicate when we had her and it was great to see her win one at Leinster albeit in a very thin race. Her issue as indicated by her only having 9 starts as a 5yo is standing up to a racing prep . The quick back up from a long time off is a query and this race is weak but a lot deeper than last week. Deserves to be the outsider but I’ll still be cheering with a $1 each way donation just in case.
Wa Spring Carnival Runners : As a whole they haven’t been up to scratch this spring. Some positive runs mixed with failures. I will not be backing any of them tomorrow but have left a brief summary should you wish to follow them.
Flemington r4 Ripcord ; Promising run first up then a poor performance 2nd up over today’s 1400m . No issue’s reported to the public so it would take a big turnaround against the likes of Jimmystar to figure.
Flemington r8 Amelia’s Jewel ; Absolutely nothing wrong with her form lines , they are top shelf and now she finally gets a dry track . She is lacking the killer instinct of old but if the blinkers on work then she’s right in this. I haven’t been backing her but if you have you probably should go once more each way.
Flemington r8 Alsephina ; She is racing out of her skin and looks primed for her Grand Final. Gets Shin and maps for a great run. Prefer Amelia’s on class but trust Alsephina more to run at her best . In summary I’m just cheering for both but wouldn’t talk you out of backing either each way.
Flemington r9 Wild Belle ; Hard to back a horse who was eased out of the race first up 3 weeks ago. Big odds for the thrill seekers only.
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Best Each Way Northam r5 Highly Spoken ; His first up run when he led and went down fighting was encouraging , his 2nd up run was a complete forgive when he was forced back and very wide . Maps better here in a even race . Suggest a 25/75 % each way bet.
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Best Roughy Northam r 4 Physco Sista ; Basically if you backed her on debut in Kalgoorlie like I did , i feel you have to have something small on just in case. She took no part after putting on a rodeo display shortly after jumping. Her trials before that incident were solid and her trial since would of been purely used to allow her to go back to the races. We have no idea if she’s any good and she’s $31 with the blinkers going on in what looks like a thin race.
Best Bet Northam r5 Saintly Cullity ; His two runs so far have been eye catching run on from the back efforts , especially the debut in a 3yo Plate. Steps up to the 1600m from a good gate so hopefully settles a touch closer and behaves better during the run and it should be all over. Lien Hyphen has had 16 attempts to win won but her last two have been better , The Merryman form reference is strong.
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Best Bet Ascot r6 Secret Attraction ; Brings Kalgoorlie form which is a worry but has at least won at Ascot in the past. Is showing an electric turn of foot for the new stable and Pike was on for the hatrick in Kal so he knows what he’s working with.
Ascot r8 September Born ; Please note this is not a tip for today but a future’s prediction for both the WA Guineas and Northerly Stakes. Another very exciting Playing God 3yo who was put straight in the paddock after a soft 2yo win on debut in June. His trial was ultra impressive and no doubt he has been aimed at this carnival since day dot. The barrier means he will have to pull out something extraordinary tomorrow over the 1200m . Not ruling him out by any means but they are not going to bust him with the big targets ahead. The best I can find for the above futures markets is on BET365 . $4.25 Guineas , $9 Northerly. 3yo’s have a great record in the Northerly and Neville Parnham trained his Sire to win two of them , the first one after winning the guineas in his 3yo year. A lot has to go right with futures betting but I’m very confident he’s the one should he stay sound.
WA Spring Carnival Runners
Mooney Valley r7 Oscar’s Fortune ; Great run first up in a harder race , he deserves favoritism based on his form around Overpass in WA’s features alone. He is versatlie and fast enough for Damian Lane to ride him how the track and race pattern needs him to on the day. No moral with the up n coming Baraqiel in the race however he is definitely WA’s best chance to get on the board this spring.
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Best Value Belmont r1 Kidding Me ; Trialing and drawn well for her debut in a very even race. Has already been support to show it’s ready and it’s each way odds.
Belmont r3 The Agency ; Looks ready to win a maiden after a solid 2nd first up in 3yo company. Was hoping for a bigger price as I’m scared stiff of Earthstorm who clearly has the best form . Banking on the map advantage to help us but you definitely have to bet on a 25/75% split.
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Best Value Ascot r1 The Merryman ; Won a Northam 1300m maiden on debut , ripping down the outside from last , beating an odds on favourite who was heavily backed again and won Thursday. Straight to town but most of the others have similar provincial form and we are getting $19 to see if he’s up to it.
WA SPRING Reps
Randwick r9 Amelia’s Jewel ; 29th September 2023 she sat outside Pride Of Jenni over 1600m and out muscled her as a $1.35 favourite. Didn’t mean much at the time but think about that now and how the two horses paths have changed. If she recaptured her best then clearly she can run a great race , finally back out to the 1600m. I can’t back her but I can wish her well and hope she proves some critics wrong with a big run.
Caulfield r10 Ripcord ; Liked his first up run down the straight . My negative here is the end of 1400m , especially 2nd up. I’m not the trainer though and he has probably been prepared differently with different targets in mind. Not in my numbers but again I wish connections the best of luck.
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Ascot r4 SRM : Golden Dore & Winning Shuffle Top 4 ; Both horses are coming off very impressive, fast finishing maiden victories . Golden Dore was on debut so should have plenty of upside. Winning Shuffle has to repeat a spike in performance but is still lightly raced and is 3rd up so should still be on the up this campaign. While Divine Impact is technically down in grade the form from her first up win is not as strong as the class suggests and she is jumping from 1000m to 14000m 2nd up. Can absolutely beat these but no way could I take the odds on qoute , hence the SRM and perhaps a little spec on both to win.
Best Bet Ascot r6 Pin Deep ; Speedster who can sustain high speed over the short course trips. There are a couple of roughies who are drawn inside him that could possibly try and hold him out early but I’m confident he can sit outside one of them in a worst case scenario and still hold off the swoopers. If he does burn to the front then it should be game over. A little embarrassing picking a $2 pop as the best bet however I have it rated at $1.70 ish in this field.
Ascot r7 Border Force ; While I don’t have much separating him and Snippy Sean , I’m banking on the barrier advantage being the difference . Also has the 1600m runs under his belt if it gets willing at the end.
Best Value Ascot r8 Camera Action ; I concede barrier 12/13 over the 1200m at Ascot will probably be a bridge too far however after having a good collect at $3 last start, I can’t let it go round at $17 without a little each way bet . Horse is flying and with luck in running , hopefully 3 wide with cover , she’s better than a $17 chance.
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Best Value Ascot r7 Chollima ; Her 3 wins from 9 starts have all been first up and 2 of them were over 1200m , 1 here at Ascot. She is $18 to keep her unbeaten fresh record intact and that’s enough for me to bet each way. Esprit Garcon is very exciting and may be too good but barrier 17 at Ascot with a bar plate going on , no thanks.
WA Spring Carnival Representation
Caulfield R9 Oscar’s Fortune ; Very speedy and from barrier 2 over 1100m Damian Lane might land in front which is often the place to be over the sprint trips at Caulfield . Solid chance in a very even race , I won’t be backing him but will be cheering for WA PRIDE!
Caulfield r10 Alsephina ; Pretty dominant win 2nd up back on dry ground against the mares. Taking on the likes of Another Wil and Antino in a group 1 handicap is another level . Not a bet for mine but she has run 2nd in a Railway Stakes and is in the mix.
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Best Bet Bunbury r2 Boussac ; Has bumped into 2 horses better than maiden grade this prep and while Saintly Cullity might fit the same boat , barrier 3 vs 13 in a big field is too big an advantage to ignore. Needs to get it done today.
Bunbury r4 Perfect Chant ; Debuted successfully in a Saturday 3yo plate and now rocks up to a Bunbury c1 at the same odds . With the “good 3yo’s” returning for spring riches this is as good a c1 you will see but having the race fitness over 1200m still has me firmly in her corner.
Bunbury r7 With Discretion ; Was touted to be too good for maiden grade on debut and that proved to be the case , albeit getting a Pike peach . Beat Bousaac that day so hopefully the form is franked after r2. Follows a recent trend of jumping straight to a c3 to stay down in the weights and draws wide however we most likely have to pay #Pikeinthelast tax on the price.
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