Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r2 Northern Diamond ; Trials indicate this filly has ability and the blinkers really had a positive effect latest one. Likely finds the lead and over the Northam sprint distances thats a good place to be. Housewife has solid race form for a Northam maiden and Pike stalking you on an odds on favourite is never ideal , just feel it’s too short.

Northam r5 Highly Spoken ; Getting closer to winning a maiden and finds a race where he can lead up in trip. Brad Parnham going on is a massive plus (great on leaders) and he has blinkers first time. Would prefer each way but we go one more time.

Oaks Day

Bunbury Born & Bred leading jockey Damian Lane has a great book of rides today and I think we can back a couple

R2 Oscar’s Fortune ; Bellatrix Star form is outstanding , last start failure alarming. Too many questions for me to bet , note he has officially changed stables to a Melbourne based trainer.

R8 Treasurethemoment ; Going for four on the bounce and won the traditional lead up race in dominant fashion. Tricky draw to overcome but looks a great chance to add another group 1 to his trophy cabinet.

R9 Poison Chalice ; Solid win first up and then no luck latest at Group 2 level. Another tough draw and very wary of Globe , however spacious Flemington will help and usually by now they are starting to make ground out wide . The one to beat.

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Cup Day Mail

Melbourne Cup : I have personally backed two international horses who finished alongside each other in the EBOR Handicap , being ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (13) and SEA KING (15). Both are down the bottom of the weights and both have proven they are in fine order by bolting in the Geelong and Bendigo cups respectively. BUCKAROO was the run of the race in the Caulfield Cup , he has been getting back with slow starts so the barrier is awkward , especially as he is unproven at two miles. Vauban was widely tipped as unbeatable last year and was terribly disappointing. Again he brings superior form but I’m against him at the price on the basis of last years performance . Field of 24 over 2 miles its a social event and a bit of fun , not a serious punting race. Mystery first 4’s are a great way to chase the dream !

13 15 2 8

Best Bet Ascot r4 Magnique ; Flashed home on debut and just missed in a 3 way photo then ran 2nd to a promising horse who went on to race competitively in Saturday grade. Drawn to get a great run and ready to break through.

Best Each Way Ascot r8 Nickleplay ; Neville Parnham trained Playing God 3yo in a feature race , heading towards the big 3yo features. Need I say more? He has an army of them every year and they keep delivering.

Best Each Way Bunbury r5 Red Dwarf ; His last two runs have been a win here and a 5 length 5th to Simply in Saturday grade . Simply won by 3.5 so he finished right behind the placegetters. Good enough form to be right in this.

Best Bet Bunbury r7 Six Shooter ; He’s short enough jumping from maiden grade to c3 at just start 3 but he looks progressive , maps well and he’s number 11 in the last on a huge day to go out with a bang!

Geraldton R2 Well Played : She has 60kgs but she has a massive class advantage on these.

Best Bet Geraldton r7 On The Mark ; Only win was on the dirt at Carnarvon but that was probably to get the monkey off the back after running a string of placings here and at Belmont. 1100m might be a touch short of his best but he has the upside to handle these first up .

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Ascot r1 Canny Jack ; He has generally raced in stronger races than this and is proven/suited to the mile while the ones in the market are unknown. Mixes his form and prefers wet ground however the odds are big enough to play each way on a 25/75 % basis.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Super Smink ; WA’s best 2yo , best 3yo filly , she lost her way in the Autumn and with mares that can go two ways . Either she is a spring time horse or ready for the breeding barn. On the evidence of her two runs this prep it’s the former and she looks ready to win. Has really attacked the line from horror gates and now draws perfect to settle closer and get the job done. Zipaway beat her in the Guineas over 1600m and is all class , dangerous at each way odds first up . Diamond Scene was enormous in lesser grade first up and is 2/2 2nd up . Rusty Dreams was a great return in the Diamond Scene race but has a horror gate to overcome .

SRM ; Super Smink (2) top 2 , Zipaway (3) top 4 Diamond Scene (8) top 4 .

Ex Duck Watch

Kalgoorlie r2 Starthefriar ; The old warrior was brilliant last start , albeit on the dirt at Leinster, He still holds a special place in our hearts and it was awesome to see. If this was 2 or 3 years ago he would be a moral. Loves the track & distance and a field of five with 54kgs is the perfect set up. If he’s bounced off the trip 2 weeks ago then he is not out of it. High Pressure and Can’t Be Done have superior recent form but if they start to feel the pinch over the last 100m they just might see the gentle giant looming in their rear view mirror. I said a prayer to the overs god but $6 is not enough for me to get too excited about. Double figures and I would have a bet for old times sake.

Kalgoorlie r5 Whole Lotta Tasha ; Alway’s thought she wasn’t as slow as her results indicate when we had her and it was great to see her win one at Leinster albeit in a very thin race. Her issue as indicated by her only having 9 starts as a 5yo is standing up to a racing prep . The quick back up from a long time off is a query and this race is weak but a lot deeper than last week. Deserves to be the outsider but I’ll still be cheering with a $1 each way donation just in case.

Wa Spring Carnival Runners : As a whole they haven’t been up to scratch this spring. Some positive runs mixed with failures. I will not be backing any of them tomorrow but have left a brief summary should you wish to follow them.

Flemington r4 Ripcord ; Promising run first up then a poor performance 2nd up over today’s 1400m . No issue’s reported to the public so it would take a big turnaround against the likes of Jimmystar to figure.

Flemington r8 Amelia’s Jewel ; Absolutely nothing wrong with her form lines , they are top shelf and now she finally gets a dry track . She is lacking the killer instinct of old but if the blinkers on work then she’s right in this. I haven’t been backing her but if you have you probably should go once more each way.

Flemington r8 Alsephina ; She is racing out of her skin and looks primed for her Grand Final. Gets Shin and maps for a great run. Prefer Amelia’s on class but trust Alsephina more to run at her best . In summary I’m just cheering for both but wouldn’t talk you out of backing either each way.

Flemington r9 Wild Belle ; Hard to back a horse who was eased out of the race first up 3 weeks ago. Big odds for the thrill seekers only.

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Northam Numbers

Best Each Way Northam r5 Highly Spoken ; His first up run when he led and went down fighting was encouraging , his 2nd up run was a complete forgive when he was forced back and very wide . Maps better here in a even race . Suggest a 25/75 % each way bet.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Roughy Northam r 4 Physco Sista ; Basically if you backed her on debut in Kalgoorlie like I did , i feel you have to have something small on just in case. She took no part after putting on a rodeo display shortly after jumping. Her trials before that incident were solid and her trial since would of been purely used to allow her to go back to the races. We have no idea if she’s any good and she’s $31 with the blinkers going on in what looks like a thin race.

Best Bet Northam r5 Saintly Cullity ; His two runs so far have been eye catching run on from the back efforts , especially the debut in a 3yo Plate. Steps up to the 1600m from a good gate so hopefully settles a touch closer and behaves better during the run and it should be all over. Lien Hyphen has had 16 attempts to win won but her last two have been better , The Merryman form reference is strong.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r6 Secret Attraction ; Brings Kalgoorlie form which is a worry but has at least won at Ascot in the past. Is showing an electric turn of foot for the new stable and Pike was on for the hatrick in Kal so he knows what he’s working with.

Ascot r8 September Born ; Please note this is not a tip for today but a future’s prediction for both the WA Guineas and Northerly Stakes. Another very exciting Playing God 3yo who was put straight in the paddock after a soft 2yo win on debut in June. His trial was ultra impressive and no doubt he has been aimed at this carnival since day dot. The barrier means he will have to pull out something extraordinary tomorrow over the 1200m . Not ruling him out by any means but they are not going to bust him with the big targets ahead. The best I can find for the above futures markets is on BET365 . $4.25 Guineas , $9 Northerly. 3yo’s have a great record in the Northerly and Neville Parnham trained his Sire to win two of them , the first one after winning the guineas in his 3yo year. A lot has to go right with futures betting but I’m very confident he’s the one should he stay sound.

WA Spring Carnival Runners

Mooney Valley r7 Oscar’s Fortune ; Great run first up in a harder race , he deserves favoritism based on his form around Overpass in WA’s features alone. He is versatlie and fast enough for Damian Lane to ride him how the track and race pattern needs him to on the day. No moral with the up n coming Baraqiel in the race however he is definitely WA’s best chance to get on the board this spring.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Value Belmont r1 Kidding Me ; Trialing and drawn well for her debut in a very even race. Has already been support to show it’s ready and it’s each way odds.

Belmont r3 The Agency ; Looks ready to win a maiden after a solid 2nd first up in 3yo company. Was hoping for a bigger price as I’m scared stiff of Earthstorm who clearly has the best form . Banking on the map advantage to help us but you definitely have to bet on a 25/75% split.

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Ascot r1 The Merryman ; Won a Northam 1300m maiden on debut , ripping down the outside from last , beating an odds on favourite who was heavily backed again and won Thursday. Straight to town but most of the others have similar provincial form and we are getting $19 to see if he’s up to it.

WA SPRING Reps

Randwick r9 Amelia’s Jewel ; 29th September 2023 she sat outside Pride Of Jenni over 1600m and out muscled her as a $1.35 favourite. Didn’t mean much at the time but think about that now and how the two horses paths have changed. If she recaptured her best then clearly she can run a great race , finally back out to the 1600m. I can’t back her but I can wish her well and hope she proves some critics wrong with a big run.

Caulfield r10 Ripcord ; Liked his first up run down the straight . My negative here is the end of 1400m , especially 2nd up. I’m not the trainer though and he has probably been prepared differently with different targets in mind. Not in my numbers but again I wish connections the best of luck.

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Wednesday Winners

Ascot r4 SRM : Golden Dore & Winning Shuffle Top 4 ; Both horses are coming off very impressive, fast finishing maiden victories . Golden Dore was on debut so should have plenty of upside. Winning Shuffle has to repeat a spike in performance but is still lightly raced and is 3rd up so should still be on the up this campaign. While Divine Impact is technically down in grade the form from her first up win is not as strong as the class suggests and she is jumping from 1000m to 14000m 2nd up. Can absolutely beat these but no way could I take the odds on qoute , hence the SRM and perhaps a little spec on both to win.

Best Bet Ascot r6 Pin Deep ; Speedster who can sustain high speed over the short course trips. There are a couple of roughies who are drawn inside him that could possibly try and hold him out early but I’m confident he can sit outside one of them in a worst case scenario and still hold off the swoopers. If he does burn to the front then it should be game over. A little embarrassing picking a $2 pop as the best bet however I have it rated at $1.70 ish in this field.

Ascot r7 Border Force ; While I don’t have much separating him and Snippy Sean , I’m banking on the barrier advantage being the difference . Also has the 1600m runs under his belt if it gets willing at the end.

Best Value Ascot r8 Camera Action ; I concede barrier 12/13 over the 1200m at Ascot will probably be a bridge too far however after having a good collect at $3 last start, I can’t let it go round at $17 without a little each way bet . Horse is flying and with luck in running , hopefully 3 wide with cover , she’s better than a $17 chance.

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Ascot r7 Chollima ; Her 3 wins from 9 starts have all been first up and 2 of them were over 1200m , 1 here at Ascot. She is $18 to keep her unbeaten fresh record intact and that’s enough for me to bet each way. Esprit Garcon is very exciting and may be too good but barrier 17 at Ascot with a bar plate going on , no thanks.

WA Spring Carnival Representation

Caulfield R9 Oscar’s Fortune ; Very speedy and from barrier 2 over 1100m Damian Lane might land in front which is often the place to be over the sprint trips at Caulfield . Solid chance in a very even race , I won’t be backing him but will be cheering for WA PRIDE!

Caulfield r10 Alsephina ; Pretty dominant win 2nd up back on dry ground against the mares. Taking on the likes of Another Wil and Antino in a group 1 handicap is another level . Not a bet for mine but she has run 2nd in a Railway Stakes and is in the mix.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Bunbury r2 Boussac ; Has bumped into 2 horses better than maiden grade this prep and while Saintly Cullity might fit the same boat , barrier 3 vs 13 in a big field is too big an advantage to ignore. Needs to get it done today.

Bunbury r4 Perfect Chant ; Debuted successfully in a Saturday 3yo plate and now rocks up to a Bunbury c1 at the same odds . With the “good 3yo’s” returning for spring riches this is as good a c1 you will see but having the race fitness over 1200m still has me firmly in her corner.

Bunbury r7 With Discretion ; Was touted to be too good for maiden grade on debut and that proved to be the case , albeit getting a Pike peach . Beat Bousaac that day so hopefully the form is franked after r2. Follows a recent trend of jumping straight to a c3 to stay down in the weights and draws wide however we most likely have to pay #Pikeinthelast tax on the price.

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Sunday Prayers

Northam r4 Haida Gwai ; Trialing well for her debut and barrier 1 over the Northam 1000m is a massive advantage over the equal favourite Red Autumn who has 13. The form from his 2nd run is outstanding for this and he has Pike but the barriers sway me . Nothing wrong with Magnique’s trials either .

SRM 11 top 2 , 3 & 12 top 4 .

Best Bet Northam r7 Miss Wall Street ; Think Camera Action form will stand up here and from barrier 2 she should get a great run to stalk the pace and put them away.

Best Value Northam r9 Ensign Pulver ; 10yo gelding who is impossible to catch and rarely wins however he is drawn to get the run of the race from barrier 1 , most likely tagging the favourite Looks and hopefully today’s his day at big odds.

Quaddie (r6-9) ; 5 , 7 , 1 4 5 6 8 9 10 , Field $56 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r2 Don’t Wait For Luck ; Has hit his straps last two with easy wins against easier competition. The way he has been hitting the line suggests the increase in distance will be no disadvantage and the rise in class is offset by the drop in weight. Pads going on his feet a slight query at the odds.

Kalgoorlie r5 Abloh ; Is a home track specialist where he is 2/2 at 1400m. Best suited when he can sit out of trouble and unleash a powerful turn of foot like last start in a similar race. Competitive race but the stable is dominating Kal like usual and he is going to be hard to beat.

Kalgoorlie r8 Starry Heights ; How do they beat him off his last start win ? If your a short price multi type of punter then here is your banker. Quaddie anchor for me.

Best Value Kalgoorlie r9 Sunny Honey ; Two close up 3rds to Rope Them In and Toropa is outstanding form for this. The fail in between was luckless and should of been a win. Secret Style will lead and be very hard to catch however I’m very confident she places and can challenge at $7 each way.

WA SPRING CARNIVAL RUNNERS

Flemington r9 Ripcord; His win in last year’s Placid Ark when exploding down the outside and catching Oscar’s Fortune indicated how talented he is and he backed it up with a 3rd to Overpass in the Winterbottom. Trial indicated he is ready to go and 1200m is his sweet spot. Track conditions on the day vital as I don’t want to get involved on a deteriorating track , anything worse than a soft 5 and I’m out. This is a wide open group 2 down the straight with Damian Lane booked to take the ride. Key scratchings have shortened the odds to $8.50 . I suggest waiting to see what the market does closer to jump as I feel it will drift back out.

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Gero Gambles

Best Bet Geraldton r7 Major Mario ; Only won the 2 from 16 but one of those was this track and distance to win his maiden. Went back to the big smoke and looks ready to break through on his recent form.

Quaddie (r4-7) ; field , 5 , 2 4 6 9 , 5. $48 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r2 Lucky Lily ; Has really appreciated the move to the goldfields and the step up in distance. This is a stronger field than the one she demolished last start however she gets in on the minimum and Peter Fernie runners rarely go backwards when they hit form.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Bunbury r7 Our Mate Archie ; Was trialing like a good horse before nothing went right on debut. Made amends 2nd up , holding a promising maiden at bay despite sitting wide no cover throughout. Goes to a C3 but that means he stays at 58kgs instead of 60kgs in a c1. Our Nemesis is exactly that , Ran 10 lengths last as a best bet in between 2 wins. Strange horse and has to carry 61kgs first up.

Nakayama (Jap) r11 Satono Reve ; Our local star hoop Damian Lane returns to Japan for 1 ride in a group 1 sprint. While I’m not very aware of the form it’s pretty obvious by it’s record of 9 wins from 7 including 2/2 track & distance that it will be hard to beat as a $3 favourite. Made a lot of money following Damo in Japan .

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r2 Blue Rocket ; Basing this tip on her 3rd in the Karrakatta plate. She got every chance last start but couldn’t run down the stablemate. From the draw and with Pike staying on she should get every chance again . Across Generations will get back and hit the line like he did in the same race as Blue Rocket last time. The extra 100m and further look ideal.

SRM Blue Rocket win , Across Generations top 4.

Best Value Belmont r3 Final Authority ; Tracked the two speedsters all the way this track & distance and although he couldn’t reel them in , he held 3rd. He will get the identical run from the inside gate tracking Miss Flirtatious who is first up. Can pinch this or at least hold down a place at nice odds.

WA SPRING CARNIVAL WATCH.

Rosehill Race 7 Amelia’s Jewel ; Despite another defeat , there was nothing wrong with her first up run , in fact it was enormous considering the track pattern and race shape. Tomorrow all comes down to conditions. The wetter the better for equal favourite Semana. At this stage I’m going to sit on the fence and just hope she gets the job done.

Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r5 Boussac ; Did enough first up to suggest he is ready to win a maiden. Faces off with a Peter’s Investments 3yo on debut. Always have to be respected but Pike and the colours are factored into the price which means we get slightly better odds with form on the board.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r3 Simply Thinkin ; Ran a fast finishing 2nd this grade / distance first up and the winner franked the form by winning Saturday. Be Bardot the obvious danger but I can’t get it odds on coming from a c1 1200m.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Outfield ; A repeat of last start 3rd against better opposition would see it go very close here. Hopefully doesn’t work to hard early and has enough left to hold them off .

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King's Birthday Present

Best Bet Bunbury r5 Magnum Class ; I concede he lacks a killer punch but he is dropping from c5 company and it’s Lane/Parnham at Bunbury. Top of The Walk has recent form behind winning horses but is a 10 start maiden and Magnachine is coming from c1’s. Placed to perfection.

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