Boxing Day Best Bets

Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Vast Art ; Very progressive 4yo who can show an explosive turn of foot when conditions suit. 4 of the 10 in this are natural leaders so the pace should be solid enough to swoop from the back .

Albany r7 Frantic War (Place) ; First run down here he beat Looks , Vonsnip and Starauthoress home comfortably behind Oxbridge who is racing like a country Black Caviar at the moment. They are all currently shorter in the market. 1240m might be stretching him to his limit but from barrier 2 with 56.5 kgs he should get every opportunity to run it out. Only 1 win from 18 , one of those horses stuck in c1 grade with big weights under WA’s terrible handicapping system , will win one soon but the place is the better punting option.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r5 Valency ; Has been flying all prep and drops from listed mares level behind the likes of Baby Paris & Rusty Dreams to a 72+ . Up a couple of kgs and against the boys but it’s still lengths easier and she maps to get the run of the race just behind the speed.

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Wednesday Winners

Ascot r1 Silver Eye & Kings Honour ; We are getting $15 about Silver Eye and he turns up here with a win and 2nd at his only 2 starts , both over the 1000m. There should be a crazy speed set here and he can park midfield and hit the line as the best value bet on a 20/80 % basis. Was originally against Kings Honour after his only trial , a 5 1/2 length romp in quick time. To the eye he went too quick and under race conditions he might paddle the last 50 -100m. However with strong easterlies forecast , on pace bias is a real possibility so I will also back him to win. If he settles better he could bolt in , if he doesn’t he might puncture badly.

Best Bet Ascot r3 Snippenova ; With the scratching of Bayezid , she has the barrier advantage over the other speed influences and from the front she is clearly hardest to beat.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Value Geraldton r6 Sun Chacen ; Good run first up and 2/4 career wins have been 2nd up . Will take a good ride from the awkward gate but at dbl figures I’m willing to go each way on a 80% place basis.

Best Bet Geraldton r7 Amarlie Miss ; Won here on debut over 1200m , then ran a fast finishing 2nd over 1400m in metro 3yo company. Wasn’t suited by the step back to 1200m last start. 1600m against the older horses not easy for a 3yo filly in her first prep but she gets in super light with the claim and Durrant has a great strike rate up here.

Weekend Winners

Ascot r1 Blue Lagoon & Crunchy Nut ; Blue Lagoon comes through the right races and should be finishing full of running. Crunchy Nut controls from the front so if the sea breeze isn’t too strong early could pinch it at odds.

SRM ; Blue Lagoon top 2 , Crunchy Nut top 4 .

Ascot r7 Costazita ; 2 previous first up runs have resulted in wins and his latest trial was strong. Lightly raced 4yo ready to charge through the grades if it stays sound.

Best Each Way Ascot r8 Vast Art ; Progressive 4yo with a great strike rate. Has a big finish on him and will need every bit of it from the barrier and hopefully some assistance from a strong sea breeze. As long as they are making ground I’m confident he at least runs top 3 to cover.

Ascot r9 Ripcord & Resortman ; Ripcord is a very exciting 3yo with the right form and 54kgs to finish over the top of them . Resortman has been set specifically for this race and should of finished much closer in the Winterbottom where Ripcord finished 3rd . Both are drawn to sit midfield , hopefully with cover and make there runs together . Ripcord 50/50 and Resortman 10/90 each way.

SRM Ripcord top 2 , resortman top 4.

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Albany Analysis

Best Bet Albany r3 Hot Chatter ; Ran 2nd to the very exciting and now Saturday winner stablemate Final Siren , then beat a very similar field same track & distance. The stable is on fire and there’s no reason she can’t get across and fight out the finish again.

Best Value Albany r7 Penny’s Afield ; Early in her career I thought this mare would have progressed to a higher level than she has. She won a trial leading in to her first up run and I’m willing to ignore the 8/11 on a day where making ground from the back was impossible. Jury’s out whether she’s going any good but at $7 and first run in the region I’m going to find out each way. Lane/Yuill combo always command respect when they travel to these meetings.

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Wednesday Winners

Pinjarra r2 Magic Belle ; 3 starts for 3 2nds , all of them strong enough form references to think she can go 1 better today. She has enough speed to find the outside fence or sit outside the leader if something on her outside holds up and that is a massive advantage down the straight.

Best Bet Pinjarra r3 Lost Gravity ; Stays at the straight 1000m , dropping from a strong class 3 to a c1 . With a cleaner jump can settle much closer to the desired lead / outside fence and this race looks considerably weaker than the 0.75 lengths defeat last time.

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Sunday Prayers

All Aboard #THELANETRAIN MULTI

Don’t like today’s Bunbury meeting from a punting perspective so have zeroed in on Damien’s big ride on Champions Day in Hong Kong with a short priced banker from Michael thrown in.

Bunbury r2 Justabittapress ; Went around odds on at only start off the back of a seriously good trial and it was a horror show for those that were on , trying to buck the jockey off soon after the start , dropping out to last and then having the audacity to make a bit of a run at them late before peaking on the run. Has had three trials in preparation for his return and clearly has too much natural ability for this field if he behaves himself. Hard to get too involved at $1.50 with ear muffs and tongue tie going on but fingers crossed we arrive at the first station safely!

Sha Tin R4 Zeffirro ; We know he has very strong Japanese connections and he gets on one here who is flying in this Distance range . The two favs down the bottom will be very hard to beat but this is a tough day and being a seasoned 4yo might give him the edge over the two 3yo’s.

My strategy is 80% Win / Place at approx $2.70 and 20% Win /Win at $8.25 .

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Final Siren ; 2/2 at his home track Albany , this gelding comes to the big smoke with a big boom on him thanks to the data that came out of those 2 effortless victories. With an Easterly forecast , on pace conditions are expected and he maps to either lead or towball Krysanova .

Ascot r7 Hanchi ; 2 starts ago this track & distance he was unlucky not to fully test Oscar’s Fortune . Next start he had absolutely no luck from a wide gate behind Ripcord & Oscar. Considering they filled the placings in the Winterbottom . If your taking him on (At $2.90 the bookies somewhat are) your thinking he gets bad luck again from barrier 1 . They will go like scalded cats in this and if Chris Parnham can keep up early and hold the rail he should be bursting through to victory.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Value Pinjarra r8 Keytrade ; He hasn’t won for a long time but a close 2nd to Malkar Pindarri is very strong form for a $12 chance. The favourite looks hard to beat but is a stayer 2nd up hence I’m not willing to take a short price. Keytrade each way all day.

Best Bet Pinjarra r9 Bayezid ; Very fast horse who should find the outside fence and take serious catching . Hard to bet against your own horse , Frantic War has important straight track experience , is drawn to track the favourite and if he stops can be in it , if he doesn’t he can definitely be in the mix to place.

Novelties ; 4/6.​7.​8.​9/1.​6.​7.​8.​9.​10/1.​2.​6.​7.​8.​9.​10.​11.​18 $4 exacta , $20 Trifecta $140 first 4.

Pinjarra r10 Good Measure ,; Yes Bunbury has been a leaders paradise but who says Pinjarra wont be the same ? It usually is a big advantage. Sentimental Belle is a good chance but always starts too short , Esprit Garcon is very talented but has an awkward map to contend with. They are the three chances so I’ll go with the better price . Hopefully a #LANETRAIN double to round out the meeting.

Quaddie (r7-10) ; field , 2 3 , 4 (9) , 1 4 10 $78 for 100% ( Ill be including Frantic War just in case )

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Weekend Winners

Best Each Way Ascot r6 Bellgrano Belle ; Solid speed engaged with Trespassing , Albert and Ima Single Gal all having recent success by leading . Contrary to recent meetings they are tipping leading to be difficult into strong winds. Drawn 1 with Pike , she might not be swooping down the outside but she can spend no petrol and burst through as the leaders are stopping. If leading is not a disadvantage then Albert becomes best roughie. Loves racing on speed and the Patchwork form reference is good for a $51 pop. Were talking very small spec on him .

Best Bet Ascot r8 Rusty Dreams ; Massive flashing light run first up over 1200m when storming home from way back . Rolled the dice from the wide gate last start , again over 1200m and faltered when crossing the dodgy part of the track that saw the last race abandoned. Ready to peak over a more suitable 1400m and maps to get a much better run .

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Albany Analysis

Best Bet Albany r6 Heeza Beau ; It’s debut win was in a pretty moderate maiden but it was strong all the same. It’s trials leading in indicated it is up to this much harder race and is drawn to settle a touch closer in running. The trainer / jockey combo are having a great start to the season.

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Wednesday Winners

Geraldton r1 Rocket Storm ; 3 starts for 3 3rds all at Northam. The form , especially from the last one is more than strong enough for this . $2.15 acceptable , won’t be surprised to wake up to odds on.

Geraldton r3 Reaction ; Rare for a 9yo to be in career best form but he is . One of those horses who tries his heart out every start but rarely wins. This distance is right in his wheelhouse whereas it looks too short for the better credentialed runners. Chix Chatter can easily win but will give a head start on a track that can heavily favour on pace.

Best Bet Geraldton r4 Westozi ; Last start he got every conceivable and made the most of it , holding off Patchwork over 1400m. I was mad keen on Patchwork that day but the extra 200m has me firmly in Westozi’s corner this time. Considering he will lead or box seat again , I’m expecting the same result.

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Sunday Prayers

Bunbury r6 Sky Duke ; Dropping in grade for it’s first up assignment and drawn to get the world perfect sit on the speedy favourite. Who could go against a Parnham trained Playing God after yesterday!

Bunbury r7 Our Nemesis ; Was absolutely plunged last start and won accordingly. The form stacks up and drawn to get a great run.

Best Bet Bunbury r9 Valley of Queens ; Been hampered by wide barriers since joining The Lane Train . Missed by a pimple last start and comes to the same home track , distance and class from a better gate. Surprised it didn’t open favourite and kicking myself for not being quick enough.

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Weekend Winners

Best Roughie Ascot r2 Rocking The Casbah ; These Westpeed Platinum series can throw up a result so I have gone with an on speed runner drawn to take advantage of barrier 2 with a very much inform Michael Poy in the saddle. Yes has to go to another level from it’s fighting Bunbury maiden win but if you ignore his Northam flop , the Malkari Pindarri form reference stacks up for a $26 chance.

Beast Each Way Ascot r6 Iht’s Closing Inn ; Exiting staying prospect who won 5 on the bounce last prep , culminating in the Belmont Classic. She has a turn of foot that makes her very dangerous first up nice and fresh over 1400m and she gets Pike from a good gate.

Best Value Ascot r8 The Velvet Queen ; Group 1 Handicap that is as wide open as I can remember hence I have settled on a mare with an exceptional turn of foot who loves the track & distance despite the wide gate. She’ll need to find a tow into the corner and let rip but it’s going to be one hell of a race

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Narrogin Numbers

Best Bet Narrogin r3 Fanz ; Ran a close 3rd at Scone in August with 60kg in 58+ grade . That rates considerably higher than this lowly 46+ at Narrogin. He’s had a tick over trial since arriving in the West and if he can handle 62kgs and the heat then he’s hard to beat. The name is a good omen for extra confidence!

Narrogin r4 Frantic War ; Last start he was the only one to half stick with the tearaway winner who spaced them from start to finish at a frantic tempo. While he was beaten by a margin he also beat the rest comfortably. He’s not overly big so the 59..5 kgs over 1190m is a concern at the price but he will get a very similar run from barrier 1. Quinella with Mantelli & Zac Loves to Fly ( 1 , 4 , 9 )

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Wednesday Winners

Best Value Bunbury r4 Smokey Mountain & Bayezid ; Hot day , fast deck , extremely likely to favour on speed runners so backing two at odds. Not the only speed in the race but the two in the best form.

Best Bet Bunbury r6 Becalotti ; In my opinion has these covered quite comfortably ability wise and should settle close enough. The money has been relentless for Hesket which suggests they are going to hold the front . He looked home last start but a roughie got off the canvas and worried him out of it so I’m backing the mare to overcome any bias.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Special Sort ; Takes a good fit and happy horse to win 4 on the bounce no matter where they are and every time they step him up in class he looks stronger and stronger. Considering the 2nd favourite brings Albany form it looks like Durrant has found the perfect race to stretch it to 5 wins. Leaders bias always a concern when betting at Ascot but he shouldn’t be too far back and can run over the top.

Best Value Ascot r4 Admiration Express ; Would of liked to see her hit the line better first up but she went back from the wide gate in a fence dominated race. She has to bounce back quickly but with barrier 3 , 54kgs and a start in the Railway on the line expect a much more positive ride and performance. Enough in the $9 each way to think she can at least run top 3.

Ascot r8 Oscars Fortune ; He’s unbeaten including trials and he still looks to be learning his racing manners. If he gets the 1200m and I think he will then $2.20 looks generous. If he doesn’t then Augment is the clear danger.

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Bunbury Best

Best Bet Bunbury r3 Lost City ; Has been competitive in all her trials in quick time , including the latest which she won and looked to be traveling with more to give. Gets Pike and a barrier to get the right run. Bonny Rock had excuses first up , does she have a knock out punch? Royal Accolade has to overcome the gate , Royal Accolade ran well first up and is good odds. 3yo filly taking on older horses on debut , we deserve a better price but she’s the one to beat.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r1 Trespassing ; Led first up and was only beaten half a length . Has enough natural pace to be right up there again and that’s a massive advantage at Ascot .

Best Value Ascot r3 Amarlie Miss ; She only won a Geraldton Maiden on debut but it was the way she did it . She was near last in a big field on straightening and after weaving through she charged past the leader who had established a handy break. Only 7 in this and from the draw she should settle much closer.

Ascot r8 Highest Award ; Lightly raced mare who is yet to miss a place in her 2nd prep including 2/4 wins. Drawn to get all the favors close to the speed with a nice weight and her breeding suggests not only will she get 1600m she should lap it up.

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