Best Value York r7 Bandelera Miss ; She has a win and a place from her last two starts , both at Ascot and at 66+ level. The topweight has made this race very compressed at the weights so she is very well suited on the minimum and goes round at around $9.50. Heavy place each way bet.
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Best Bet Ascot r6 Casino Seventeen ; Conditions didn’t suit first up in the 1600m Northam Cup but he still ran a cracker to say he’s up for a big campaign. Drawn to get the run of the race with Pike in the saddle I have it rated much shorter than the $2.40 currently on offer. No Perth Cup Futures market available but if there was he’d be right near the top.
Ascot r7 Rope Them In ; Jumped at $26 first up in the Belgravia despite winning 2 / 3 Winter 2yo races and he went enormous. Trapped deep without cover he hung tough and was only beaten just over a length into 4th. Drawn to get a far more economical run and considering the 3 who beat him home aren’t here , he has to be a solid each way chance on his way to a tilt at the Guineas. ($17 All In )
Best Value Ascot r9 Rockin Rupert ; It’s $5 the field and although he doesn’t win often he’s racing really consistently. The winner received a Pike peach last time and thought he did a great job to run 2nd from a long way back. He should get the right run from the barrier and hit the line at $9 each way.
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Best Value Flemington r8 Ethel Maude ; Local Breeder / Owner Trevor Delroy loves his stayers and is not afraid to have a throw at the stumps with his 3yo’s at the classics every year. This filly s coming from a dominant Pakenham maiden win over 2000m. Before that it ran two encouraging races here at Flemington over 1800 and 1600m against similar opposition that it meets here to say she’s not hopeless . Yes others rate better chances but at $31 (she was as short as $15 last week ) I’m prepared to have a small each way bet and hope she can outstay them.
Best Bet Northam r3 Hezangelic ; Latest trial with Blinkers on caught the eye and 2nd in that trial has run 2 seconds in stronger races than this. Pike jumps on for his debut and I think he can lead all the way .
Northam r4 Rule The Empire ; Full brother to the short priced favourite in the last , I just thought it might find the rail over the 1000m at Northam first which has been a massive advantage over the favourite Esprit Gardon who is first up no trial and drawn 8/8 . Reading the gear he’s racing with he might have his quirks like his older brother but $6 vs $1.70 makes the gamble worthwhile .
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 , 1 2 3 6 7 9 , 2 , 2 7 $12 $100%
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 2 7 , 8 10 11 , 5 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 $$42 for 100%
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Melbourne Cup Soulcombe ; Considering he bombed the start hopelessly in the Caulfield Cup he’s run was more than acceptable as a pointer for today. Loves Flemington and is drawn soft for a good run in transit for the magic man Moreira providing he jumps. The blinkers are off to try and improve his barrier manners and Waller is the Master of peaking them on Grand Final day.
Ascot r2 Bayezid ; Had 3 starts in WA and been ok in all 3 without much going right. Should settle in the first couple from the draw and that’s been gold at Ascot and last time he led it took boom horse Keshi Boom the whole straight to run him down.
Best Value Ascot r7 Big Swoop ; Just a tough stayer who races on pace and doesn’t go down without a fight. He won at $20 last start and I don’t think he should be that rough in this. Dun With The Blues is very progressive but hasn’t raced for 6 weeks . If she’s ready she’s very hard to beat but would need a push from the trainer at the skinny odds.
Bunbury r1 Brave Spirit ; Goes from running 3rd in a 3yo Saturday race to a Bunbury maiden and the Pontiff comes to Bunbury for the ride. Really should be justifying the short qoute.
Best Bet Geraldton r7 Patchwork ; Is absolutely flying at this track and distance lately, the only defeat coming when grabbed on the line by Special Sort . That horse has since come to Ascot and won 2 races in 3 days . Drops to the minimum and maps perfectly. It’s a marathon day but do your self a favor and save some for this race !
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Best Bet Albany r2 I Dreamed A Dream ; It’s 2yo form , in particular a 5th in the sires behind Super Smink who could be anything is more than good enough to win this ears pricked. 2yo form is hard to trust but if it’s come back then it is far superior than Albany maiden form.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1.3.4.5.6.8/11/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.10/4 $54 for 100%
Albany r7 Frantic War ; Not a tip just some late mail on our own runner. . We expected more first up but you always have to forgive 1 poor run. He maps to either hold the lead or sit leaders back . Looks deserves favouritism on his trial , the winner of that trial was scratched from this and won at Ascot yesterday. Starauthoress always run well this track . In summary a peak run would see him winning but he’s hard to back off his first up run at the odds.
Quaddie (r4-7) 4/1.2.7/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10/4.7.9 $90 for 100%
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Ascot r1 Special Sort ; Found him Wednesday and if Durrant is happy to send him around again then I’m happy to stick with him. Drawn to stalk the speed again and use his turn of foot to power past them.
Best Bet Ascot r2 Malkar Pindarri ; Blinkers on , especially first time can have a positive effect but the difference they have made to this horse is incredible. She’s gone from a non winner to a mare who looks like she can rocket through the grades like her finishing bursts. Stays in the same grade and gets 1.5kgs plus an extra 100m to turn the tables on last start nemesis Laquetta’s Gift who got a Pike peach vs the favourite being shuffled back and missing by a nose.
Best Value Ascot r8 / Railway Stakes Futures Admiration Express ; This is the prep we see how good this girl really is and going by her trials she’s ready to make a statement. Genuine concern if by r8 the meeting has been dominated onspeed / rail but a fair track sees her motoring home late. It is an awkward map at this level so with that in mind I’m suggesting heavy place each way tomorrow and am more excited by the $21 i found (365) in futures betting for the Railway Stakes. Group 1 1600m under handicap conditions looks right in her wheelhouse.
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Best Bet Ascot r1 Weeraechoux ; Came from a mile off them first up and went straight past them . Only 5 in it this time and the extra 200m looks suitable. Ignoring the roughie in the small field theory , $2 actually looks good value.
Ascot r5 Wicked Venom ; Doubt he beat much on debut but he was strong to the line all the same , indicating the extra 100m shouldn’t stop him. Gets a great run from barrier 1 and there are no stars in this either.
Ascot r7 Special Sort ; Always hard when horses bring good country form to Ascot and that’s what were faced with here. He has won both starts this prep at Geraldton , using a sharp turn of foot to get out of a sticky position. Looks well weighted after the claim and considering the favourite brings a narrow Kalgoorlie win he looks a bet at $4.20 .
Ascot r8 Rockin Rupert ; Won in this class 3 starts ago and is dropping in class and weight from his latest assignments. Hard to know how Deetea is going after being untested due to lack of room first up but this is also a harder race and #Pikeinthelast believers will mean we get a decent price.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 5 (1 3 6 7 8 9 10 11 ) 1 2 3 , 1 2 , 2 8 $12 for 100 % standing out 5 1st leg $108 to include the other numbers ( suggest flexi % insurance )
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Best Bet Laverton r6 Got Lucky ; Has only won 3 from 28 but his last two were his first runs on dirt , in this grade at this distance and he has won both effortlessly. I have it marked a lot shorter than the current $2.65.
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Best Value Ascot r6 Street Parade ; Simply a different horse when he leads. Was mad keen on his chances at Kalgoorlie and he didn’t fire a shot. Watched in horror as he led at Ascot next start and looked home before being caught late . He will almost certainly lead from barrier 2 with an out of form Halatorion coming across and Can’t Be Done on his back . Rusty Dreams is the best horse in the race by some margin and can definitely win. I just feel $9 each way is better value.
Best Bet Ascot r8 Almighty Class ; He was brilliant first up at 1000m and 1200m is only going to suit him better. He’s a beast so the extra 2kgs is not going to bother him. From barrier 2 he has options to lead or track the leader and pounce at the top of the straight. I’m very confident he hits the front , then I’ll be looking for Super Smink . The standout 2yo of last season returns off a lovely trial and will be rattling home , will need to produce something remarkable if Almighty Class is as good as I think he is .
Ascot Quaddie ; (r6=9) ; 3 9 , 1 2 5 6 7 9 10 12 13 , 2 3 , 1 3 4 5 7 8 9 11 12 $324 for 100%
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Best Multi Leg Geraldton r2 Major Mario ; 3 placings out of 4 starts in the provincial / metro area see’s him very well placed. One of those placings was behind a horse that is odds on to win at Ascot tomorrow (debatable that it should be). Wide draw on a good 3 at Gero is not a situation where i’d be confident having a decent crack at a shorty so I’ll just include him at top tote in a multi.
Best Bet Geraldton r5 The Slap ; Punters find it hard to line up Synthetic form whenever horses switch to turf however in hindsight the $9 was a crazy price first up considering the opposition and the fact he was beaten 0.3 lengths at his only start in Victoria. Gets another soft run from the draw and can definitely handle the rise in grade. Numbers 1 , 3 , 4 and 5 are dropping back from the same c2 and not much separates them which makes me more confident in the different form line of The Slap.
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Best Bet Ascot r8 Valour Road ; Maps to get the run of the race one or two pairs back and meets a similar field under similar conditions that he dominated first up. He isn’t a moral to win but $4.60 / $1.90 honestly looks one of the best bets of the year .
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Ascot r1 Moorditj Boy ; Speedy 3yo who destroyed his rivals at his 2nd career start before going out for a spell. His trial indicated he is ready to run a race first up. Drawn wide but he has the early pace to get over and if he does the $5 looks a touch of overs.
Best Bet Ascot r8 Penny On The Queen ; Finally won another race last start after winning as a 2yo and it was a very impressive win at that. Stays in the same class at the same distance and while 60kgs is never easy for a mare , she carried 59.5kgs last time and should get an easier run in transit.
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Best Value Ascot r8 Almighty Class ; This son of Playing God has set the track alight at the trials on numerous occasions. 2nd to undefeated Keshi Boom then won by over 5 lengths leading over 950m at lark hill . Debuted on a Heavy 9 over 1200m so prepared to ignore that run and go off his return trial at Belmont where he pulled his head off last before given his head and putting 4 lengths on them in a few strides. Big raw gelding with a big future and while 1000m feature race at Ascot is certainly a challenge , I don’t want him going around at $10 without my money on. Confident he can be a real player over the carnival if he stands up.
First week back at Ascot on a warm day , Rail , Leaders Bias ? I don’t want to get too involved so here are my thoughts on some of the Big ones over east.
Randwick R7 Private Eye ; Only Giga Kick nabbed him late this race last year and his win first up over 1100m was dynamic. Nash Rawiller is on fire and the trainer openly said he would improve 3 or 4 lengths off his first up run. Slightly sticky barrier but if the track plays fair and he can get some cover then $7.50 each way is a nice bet.
Caulfield r9 Militirize & Steparty ; Massive fan of both these outstanding colts. Militirize is already a multiple group 1 winner who will get stronger and stronger as the distances increase. Steparty just keeps raising the bar and was brilliant in the prelude , overcoming a tough run. Rather than back them here I have backed both in the Cox Plate futures market , if either win this then head to the Cox , they will be massive chances at WFA. Other chances but I’ll only be taking the two in the Quaddie.
Caulfield r10 Amelia’s Jewel ; At first glance the $2.45 looks a little skinny considering the weight and barrier. Then you listen to trainer Simon Miller’s latest interview and see the glint in his eye as he tells the world she is now ready to truly show us what she’s got., it might turn out to be overs. It’s still not her Grand Final and I haven’t decided if I’ll bet but I definitely have her on top and I’ll definitely being cheering hard with the rest of WA .
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Best Value Northam r3 Highly Spoken ; Bit of sentimental heart in this tip being a 1/2 to our darling Angelique’s Fame . Not all blind faith though as his two public trials have been good. Totally different type to our mare , he’s a beast of a God As Spoken gelding who looks like he will get over ground. Looked to be bolting last trial and 1300m first up looks ideal. The two winners in the field Linden’s Gold and Odin Omen are clearly the ones to beat . Throw at the stumps each way at $21/4.40
R3 Novelties ; 1.2.3/1.2.3/FD/FD ; $6 quinella $42 trifecta $336 first 4 .
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Best Value Northam r2 Horizon ; Very erratic 8yo who’s manners have probably cost him more wins. He zapped them from last this track & distance last start despite hanging in badly up the straight which is his n1 trick. At 8 he’s not going to change but his regular jock will be aware of that and be prepared. This is slightly tougher but at $10 I’m willing to play. Also saving on The Great Hoya who bolted in first start for the new camp. That was a weak race but he did show promise early in his career .
Best Bet Northam r4 Rocking The Casbah ; Ready to break through after two 2nds in two starts. Races on pace and the winner from last start has gone on with it since.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r6 Street Parade ; We have seen all carnival that Perth form trumps local form. He is clearly the highest rated horse in the race. Type of horse who can mix his form but he maps to get the world perfect run stalking Talk it Up & Ain’t No Other Man . If the former finds the top then he is the big danger , Ain’t No Other Man never loses by much but nearly always finds one better. The early betting is fascinating with our tip an alarming drifter from $3.40 to $5.50 . Punters didn’t miss on Wednesday but I’m sticking fat and now we get each way odds as an added bonus.
r6 Novelties 1.3/1.3.4/FD/FD $28 trifecta $168 first 4
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Best Bet r5 Mia Gusto ; Might have reached her mark in the metro / provincial area but looks a standout in this line up at a track she has had success at before. CJP making the trip boosts the confidence. The form around her latest trial has been franked.
r7 Mombasa ; The only two times he has shown anything were first up in this distance range , winning at Ascot and running 2nd here. Weird for a horse bred to be a stayer but I can see him storming home late and giving it a shake .
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 Lieutenant Dunbar ; Type of horse who is competitive in everything he contests but struggles to win . Arriving in the goldfields with metro/ provincial form looks a great move to get him back in the winners stall.
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Best Multi Northam r1 Linden’s Gold (win) ; Should get a far more economical run than last time and 2 key scratchings have really thinned the race out. Tipping $1.50 pops is a nightmare but hopefully it kicks off the multi .
Northam r5 Stolen Valour (place) ; Back for his first start as a 3yo and his trial was ultra impressive , beating home a subsequent Saturday winner. Tycoon Harry will be hard to run down but more value in having something on at $6.50 and adding $2.05 the place to the multi ($3.07).
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 3 , 9 10 , 5 8 9 10 , 1 2 3 4 6 $40 for 100%
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 6 9 , 1 2 6 , field , 1 2 3 7 $168 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r6 Zaza Rock ; Yes this is a big step up in class but honestly there is not much difference until you get up towards the very top in WA staying ranks. I’d much rather be with the up n comers overs the veterans on the way down. She carried 59kgs from barrier 10 last start and won with something in hand. Concede Dun With The Blues should of finished closer but she came out Monday and destroyed them in the Toodyay Cup . Dropping to 54.5kgs and from barrier 3 she can lead or box seat with little tempo on paper and win at her Saturday debut.
Belmont r8 Phanta ; Back to set weights and penalties and 1200m in a race he should control from the front look ideal conditions to return to the winners circle. River Rubicon can unleash a sharp sprint on his day and is the quinella / quaddie insurance horse.
Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) ; 6/FD/4.(6)/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.11.14 $121 for 100% ($30 for 25% insurance)
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