Best Bet Pinjarra r2 Petrouchka ; Well bred 3yo on debut who is unbeaten at trials for the lethal Williams / Pike combo.
Pinjarra r6 Miss Ava ; Has always shown ability and put it all together last start , demolishing them with a sharp turn of foot on wet ground. The 2nd horse who she thrashed won it’s maiden yesterday.
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Best Bet Belmont r6 Zaza Rock ; Took 7 runs to breakthrough but run 2nd on 4 other occasions. She’s seems a bit one paced but tough so putting her into the race early like last start might be the key. She has handled a soft 7 , heavy 9 is unknown for all of them. The jump from maiden grade to c1 is very tough in our rating system but it’s wide open and she is each way odds.
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R4 Kelly’s Lassie ; Led all the way over 1800m at Roeburn before being caught wide throughout and being run down by a couple in the straight to finish 3rd at Port Hedland. Barrier 1 with the addition of blinkers and a senior rider should see her lead and prove very hard to run down.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Lucky Foo Foo ; Inconsistent galloper who can do a lot wrong in her races. When she gets the right run she has a sharp turn of foot and she used it last start to win impressively. Faithful sticks from a good barrier and $8 each way is juicy enough to see if she can repeat .
Best Value Kalgoorlie r8 Jakestar ; Last start win was strong , sitting 3 wide without cover and beating some of today’s rivals. Gets in with a very light weight after the claim and in a genuine field leg for quaddie players , looks a value bet at $19.
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Best Value Belmont r6 Dance of the South ; Winter staying races are generally wide open raffles , throwing up different results each time. Our tip is in a purple patch of form with a win and two 2nds last 3 starts. While I was disappointed she got run down last start she drops 4.5kgs to the minimum , races on pace and can give cheek. She’s by no means a good thing but at $31 / $6.50 I’m happy to spec her each way.
Best Bet Belmont r7 Duchess of Gossip ; Exciting 4yo Mare who is still in her first racing campaign , and has 4 wins and 2 seconds from 7 starts. The deeper she goes , the stronger her performances so far. She’s versatile and drawn to get every possible with Pike sticking. Unless she’s looking for the paddock she should be far too good here and you have to trust they wouldn’t be here if she wasn’t in tip top order.
Belmont r8 Phanta ; Loves to lead and dictate like he did first up in a very similar field at the same track & distance. With the only other natural leader drawn to his outside a repeat is well and truly on the cards.
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 , 4 , 4 , 2 3 5 6 7 10 11 12 13 $99 for 100%
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Best Bet Northam r9 Find Your Man ; He’s hit a real purple patch with two devastating wins from the back over 1400m , the latest at this track . Stays in the same grade and I see no reason why he can’t do it again Interesting to see where he settles from barrier 1 , trusting the jockey to find a way through. The favourite Probity is dropping in class but prefers wet ground . Taking on #PIKEINTHELAST is always risky !
Quaddie (r 6 - 9 ) ; 1 5 6 7 12 , 1 2 3 4 8 , 1 2 4 , 2 . $75 for 100% *Numbers 1 3 5 8 are worth including in the last leg if you want to play wider .
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Best Bet Belmont r3 Empress of India ; All 3 runs have been at this track and distance for a win , 2nd and close up 4th which was in strong 2yo company. Big class drop , gains the services of Pike and is drawn to get a perfect run somewhere on top of the speed which has been the place to be lately. I have it priced much shorter than the current $2.30 , 6 weeks between runs some concern .
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The Belmont track is cooked. After covering Bunbury for two summers it desperately needs a rest . I can’t invest on any race with confidence .
Belmont r7 First Encounter is an exciting animal , working through the grades. It would be no surprise to see him feature in carnival races such as the Railway Stakes . $1.75 actually looks decent on face value but there are a few negatives being the track as mentioned and staying at 1400m. I see his best being 1600m and above but he should still have too much class for this field. I’m going to stand him out in the quaddie as my only bet for the program.
Belmont Quaddie r6-9 ; 1.2.3.5.7.9.11/4/1.3.4.8.11/3.7.14.15 $140 for 100
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Pinjarra r5 Kisses From Kelly ; Hit the front early first up before being run down late. Fitter and drawn to get a sweet run , he looks the one to beat.
Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Galaxy Cat ; Has the strongest recent form in the race and his trainer had a huge day yesterday , hopefully it continues .
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 2 (10) ; field , 1 , field $81 for 100% ( $20.25 for 25% on with 10 first leg)
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Belmont r3 Miss Ava ; Has the strongest race form , handles wet ground. Lots of mail around for Don’t Trust Judas on his trial form , very tough day to run first up . The draw is sticky but who knows how the track is going to play today.
Best Bet Belmont r8 Dorado ; Winner on heavy in a stronger race this time last year . Has hit the line hard in 2 runs this prep , again in stronger races. Unplaced in 6 good track runs , I expect the track to be back in the heavy range come the last , hopefully they still racing as when the rain does come I expect the money to flood in . Great each way odds at moment.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r1 More Likely ; 2 3rds in 3 starts , both times being held up for clear running . The next two in betting have had 16 cracks at it for a couple of placings each. Michael Poy has hit the ground running in WA and he just has to navigate a passage from barrier 1 to be steering home another winner here.
Best Value Kalgoorlie r2 Pray With You ; Only beaten 2 lengths over 1300m at Pinjarra on debut. That should make him competitive in a weak Kal maiden. Draw makes it very tough but blinkers on first time and It is Sunday Prayers so a little spec each way.
Kalgoorlie r3 Quinella no’s 2 & 3 : Time Scale was first up last week when had to do some work and was only caught late . Should find the top here with less pressure up front. Quick back up 2nd up is some concern but if she handles it she should take running down. Bird’s The Word is up in grade but is always competitive and should get the run of the race. Galaxy Affair is the one most likely to spoil the party. He has a habit of laying in so I’m hoping the other two are off and gone before he winds up.
Early Quaddie (r1-4); 3/1.2.4.5.7.8/2.3/1.2 $24 for 100%
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Belmont R7 Allez Allez ; This is a deeper race than what he beat from the breeze last start but he maps to get a great run , handles wet ground and is yet to run a bad race for #THELANETRAIN . It’s each way the field and I can’t see him not being in the finish.
Best Bet Belmont R9 Ginger Baker ; I feel like i need to wash my mouth out with soap tipping this horse let alone making him the best bet but …. Once the biggest tease going around , he has magically turned the corner , winning three on the bounce before a massive run when slowly away from a wide gate and finishing off hard behind Vast Art . Loves wet Belmont and draws to either lead or sit right behind them . Vast Art is the better horse and will take no end of holding out but I’m going to back Ginger Baker on a 25/75% split to hopefully get a result .
R9 First 4 ; 2.8/2.8./4.10 11.12.14/3.4.5.6.7.9.10.11.12.13.14 . $100 for 100%
It’s a jackpot first 4 so although it’s tough I will play for a flexi percentage as it should pay well if we jag it.
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Best Bet Northam r3 Silver Back Jack ; Has been well supported in two runs to date and both times he’s hit the line late. 3rd up 1600m looks like ideal conditions to break through in a race where most of had plenty of chances.
Northam r6 Dance of the South; A repeat of her last two efforts will beat these , all of them are out of form. Chokslam is the clear class runner however jumping 800m from 1400m 2nd up with 60kg is a task.
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Best Bet Belmont r1 Saloon Bar ; Being beaten by the bob first up behind talented and very much inform filly Universal Flair over 1200m indicates he is in for a good campaign. Has a great soft track record and has won over 1400m previously. Looks to get a soft run behind the speed and use his turn of foot to out sprint them in the small field. Confidence isn’t super high but it’s my best on a typically tough winter’s Belmont Park meeting.
Port Hedland r1 Sea Waif ; Likes to roll out in front and that’s exactly what she did first run on dirt and she never looked like being beat. Leading on the dirt is a massive advantage and she should go very close to repeating an all the way win.
Port Hedland r4 Land of Valens ; First start in WA resulted in a win at Ascot , then only beaten 3.5 lengths by listed winner Ghost Who Walks , then came to Port Hedland and won as he liked. All runs have been spaced and he turns up fresh again today.
Port Hedland r5 Galiba ; She’s won her last two and she drops in weight thanks to the 3kg claim. Looks extremely well placed to bring up the hattrick .
Derby r3 Wuhan Warrior ; First two dirt runs were handlebars down out in front and they couldn’t see which way he went. Couldn’t cross next start and that made him a sitting duck for one of his back . Drawn 1 he will hold up the front and from there it should be over. He’s very short so I will be taking doubles with the Port Hedland selections .
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Belmont r4 Universal Playboy ; He brings Saturday form to a race with a mixture of Kalgoorlie and midweek form. He’s drawn to get the perfect run , can be inconsistent but he’s best is good enough.
Best Roughie Belmont r5 Keytrade ; Has been out of form for a long time but last run was better , beaten under a length . At his best he would be hard in the market in a race like this so there is enough in the $20 on offer to have a nibble.
Belmont r6 Vast Art ; Has surged through the grades this prep , coming from a maiden to listed level winner . He is better suited than last start where he won effortlessly off a five week break . The only concern is the 6kg rise to 60kg but he should be too classy.
Belmont r7 Aztec Ruler ; Great run first up , beating all but the all the way winner who backed up last week and won again . Drawn to get every chance .
Best Bet Belmont r8 Upper Limits ; Won the Aquanita from last and was running right through the line so can’t see an extra 200m stopping him. The time they ran easily accounted for the girls so I have him the clear favourite whereas loyal Pike followers have taken his lead and stuck with the filly. Game On!
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Belmont r3 Red Square ; Undefeated 2yo stepping to Saturday grade first time . Should bounce straight to the top and will take a good one to run him down. Scared stiff of Khutulun , trials indicate above average ability.
Best Bet Belmont r8 Real Danger ; 2/2 for the new connections , both this track & distance. Rises in grade but drawn to get the sweetest of runs with Pike in the saddle. Ghost Who Walks is flying and drops in weight but has 1.5 lengths to make up on their last clash. Nerodio is a remarkable 6/6 at the Belmont 1000 but is first up.
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Pinjarra r3 Regal Statue ; We were with her last start this track & distance on heavy and she only got caught late after surprisingly taking up the running .With a bit of cover early I think she can repay the faith. Maids Testimony is unbeaten at trials and looks the danger , hopefully the race fitness in the conditions gives us the edge .
Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Killarney ; Ran 2nd on debut behind Wonder Weapon who franked the form by running 3rd in a c1 at Belmont yesterday . Barrier 14 at Pinjarra is not ideal but this race is pretty thin and if your going to back a jockey to overcome a wide gate on a run on type then Pikes your man.
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Best Bet Belmont r4 Justabittapress ; Late season 2yo who has shown above average ability at both trials , winning by a space in quick time relative to the day. $2.20 from barrier 10 on paper is questionable but if it had of drawn a gate you would be looking at odds on so there is enough in the price to have a bet for mine.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 2.4.5/FD/4/1.3.5.7 $96 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Let’s Deal ; . He is a staying type who can sprint well fresh in this distance range. Has won 3/4 first up including 1 at today’s 1400m . Whether he can round them up with 60.5kg is a genuine concern. On one hand it’s disappointing to miss the $8 when markets opened , on the other hand the support ($8 - $4.6 - $6 ) indicates he is ready to run a race.
Belmont r9 Prize Pursuit ; resumes from a spell first up in the lucky last (R9) at Belmont tomorrow. Punters have naturally gravitated to #PIKEINTHELAST on progressive mare Category Three. She was given every possible first up and comes here off a setback. Barrier 2 and Pike , she could easily get every possible again . Aztec Ruler looked real smart in his first campaign , winning both starts. Forget next prep which was abandoned after 1 run and go off two nice trials in preparation for this , very hard to beat. Universal Flair seems to be a heavy tracker. Good track against , light weight and drawn to lead means I’ll be keeping him safe. Trade War is a get back and run on type better suited to 1400m but he’s a dry tracker and better chance than his odds suggest. While the market has written Prize Pursuit off , he has run 3 2nds in 4 first up runs to date and is drawn to get a great sit behind them .
Betting Strategy : While I have 4 or 5 rated above him , $31 / $6 is good value for a nibble each way . It’s a jackpot first 4 and looks very wide so I’ll be playing that for a small % which still could pay anything.
FIRST 4 NUMBERS ; 4.8.9.10.11/1.4.5.6.8.9.10.11/1.4.5.6.8.9.10.11/1.2.4.5.6.8.9.10.11
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.12.13.14/1.2/2.3/4.5.8.9.10.11 $240 for 100%
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Best Bet Northam r6 On The Full ; He will be somewhere near the top and he will take some running down. While Northam has been better out wide / swooping all season , 1000m on a drier surface with the rail in the true position it should be ok. At least by race 6 the jockey can try and edge out there if required.
Best Value Northam r7 Riding Hood Fame ; She brought up win number 2 at start 70 in a near identical race last start. Both wins and most of her places have been at Northam on a good surface . She will get back and sustain a run down the middle . Her stats say winning back to back races is unlikely but at $8 I’m willing to spec each way.
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