Best Bet Ascot r4 Major Max ; It’s not the form behind his two wins , it’s the ease in how he’s done it with the look of a horse that has plenty more to give. Destined for Saturday racing. Trevern is trialing the house down and is proven in this grade . Excelestial is racing out of it’s skin . Hoping they race each other early to set it up for Max to swoop over the top.
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Pinjarra r1 Frantic War ; Most of these are racing down the unique straight 1000m for the first time which makes any predictions of speed maps and tactics next to impossible. Further complicating things is the natural speed horses are spread out from the inside to the outside. Generally speaking the outside is considered the better going. We are drawn right next to the hot favourite Rupert’s Empire close to the inside (4/3) . He races on speed and looks very hard to beat on his recent trial. In an ideal world we can find his back , peel off at the 200m and let rip down the middle . If the blinkers help him finish off even a fraction better then he has to be hard to hold out . The rest of the field is just guesswork with the other one in the market , Psyschic Session first up no trial but drawn the right side if he’s good enough.
Betting Strategy : 100% wins . Don’t really like backing him straight out against a hot favourite but the odds dictate we back him in and take the obvious quinella as back up.
Best Value Pinjarra r8 Creator ; Great win first up and that’s the first time he’s done much at all first up in nine attempts. That says to me he’s feeling good and he’s won 2nd up on 2 other occasions. Hoping Halatorian and Sniparoochy dual from a fair way out and then we will be right in the mix at each way prices.
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Best Value Ascot r6 Sizzle Me Patrick ; Made up a stack of ground on debut over 1200m then destroyed a maiden field over 1400m 2nd up. Steps straight into listed level which admittedly is a huge task however the distance increase looks right up his alley. and if your going to make the leap , these derby lead ups are the best time to try. The strong easterlies forecast are tipped to heavily favour those on pace , if that’s the case then his chances diminish so watch a few before investing each way.
Best Bet Ascot r7 Admiration Express , The girls turn on the way to the Oaks which our favourite is the $2.50 All In favourite . She also holds favouritism in the WA Derby All In market. She was brave first up doing all the work outside the race fit Feels Playful , still coming on the line. With a little cover she should be too strong late over the 1800m .
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Geraldton r1 Bidaya ; Ex Godolphin galloper who has a 3rd in a Geelong 3yo maiden in only 4 starts. Trialed really well for the new connections recently and this is weak . Queen Tiffany the obvious danger , thought she ran 2nd by default the other day , wasn’t going anywhere but nor were the others besides the winner.
Best Bet Geraldton r6 Let Them All Talk ; Brought provincial / metro maiden / c1 form to a weak country maiden last start , was backed as if unbeatable and didn’t let supporters down . Looks like a horse that can race through the lower classes in the region. Think those who backed it last time will re load and it jumps favourite so I’m taking $4 now.
Geraldton r7 The Singing Tiger ; Dropping considerably in class , drawn for the right run and the claim brings the big weight down to a manageable 60kgs. We have cashed in on Jeanella’s 2 wins in the region. $1.90 from the carpark looks pretty skinny.
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Best Bet Ascot r1 King’s Flirt ; Won by almost 7 on debut over today’s 1200m. Big question mark on the form behind her but she can find the front again and from there it will take a pretty big sustained run to gun her down.
Ascot r7 Maktastic ; Only won 1 from 21 but has placed in much stronger grade in Victoria including 2/3 2nd up . Horror gate but wide with cover most likely a good spot to be in a field like this. Drops in weight and class thanks to the claim and looks hard to beat.
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Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Supersession ; Stepping up from maiden company to 1mw Graduation company at career start 3 is a task but obviously this 3yo has shown gun trainer Adam Durrant enough to warrant having a crack . Both runs showed a lethal turn of foot , from way back over 1000m on debut then a soft kill over 1200m. The fact all the key chances are lightly raced 3yo’s helps and he should get a gun run midfield .
Flemington r2 Nunthorpe ; WA owned & bred Playing God filly who is 2/2 . Despite coming from a c1 (2nd is a smart horse ) to a group 3 she has serious ability and can acquit herself well for the Moody / Kah combo who are on fire .
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Best Bet Ascot r3 Frantic War ; Frantic War heads to a 1100m all aged maiden 2nd up in top order . After going desperately close 1st up , he gets barrier 1 and a wonderful opportunity to break his maiden tag.
Race Analysis; Typically he is not an ideal barrier 1 horse but being Ascot it’s definitely better than drawing the river. The perfect situation would be the fav Fluro Neuro finding the top and lobbing on his back. With the advantage of having a run under his belt , we must be hard to hold out late. The combination of Williams / Pike and the two 2nds in debut prep has seen the favourite extremely popular with early players. ($3.20 to $2.05) . Frantic is rock steady and clear 2nd pick at $4.60 . Amber Glide is well bred and trialing well , if either of the two are paddling late she is the most likely to be running on.
Betting Strategy ; I agree with the market in that it’s a race with 2 1/2 main chances. Might be biased but not sure the gap between the two should be that big. BET 365 currently offering $5 / $1.95 and on that basis I will be playing on a 20 / 80 % split stake basis.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 2 3 , 4 6 8 9 , 3 4 , 1 2 3 4 10 . $60 for 100%
Ascot r5 Alaskalot ; His racing pattern makes him hard to take short odds but he never runs a bad race. The booking of Chris Parnham and the massive drop in class looks great placement. Likely to get back and storm home over the top so any on pace bias would be a concern.
Stable Update
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Geraldton R3 Whole Lotta Tasha; ; Given the visitor’s draw (13) , on a track that plays fast from the front , we have certainly set her a task as the market suggests ($51). You have to start somewhere and win lose or draw the race experience will be invaluable . Hopefully she can find a spot and hit the line full of running . Bold Prophet is a 16 start maiden but he is drawn for the right run , recent best runs have been 1100m. Let Them All Talk has performed ok in metro/provincial maidens. The move to country class helps considerably. Anything from the Durrant yard is going to be hard to beat and Queen Tiffany trialed well before a satisfactory debut at Pinjarra. Tricky draw the concern for her.
Betting Strategy ; Very tricky race to come up with anything . I think Let Them All Talk is the most likely so I will play around with the novelties with that in mind. Use flexi betting for small percentages and see if we can jag a good one.
Trifecta 1 ; 1/2.3.5.7.9.10.12.13.14.15/2.3.5.7.9.10.12.13.14.15 $90 for 100%
Trifecta 2 ; 2.3.12.14.15/1/2.3.5.7.9.10.12.13.14.15 $45 for 100%
Best Bet Geraldton r7 Beauty In Me ; Metro midweek C3 form should really stack up here. Barrier 1 and a 4kg claim bring her right into contention . If not her it’s a raffle so we will back the team in.
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1.4.5/3.8/FD/2 $72 for 100%
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Best Bet Sandown r7 Jacquinot ; Rare tip outside of WA but I’m going with the Lane Train connection with Damien Lane set to add another Group 1 to his outstanding resume. Although the margin was narrow first up it was a herculean effort to sprint off a slow tempo with 59.5kgs and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. 2nd up last prep he won the Golden Rose , mowing down the very smart In Secret over today’s 1400m. With Gentleman Roy , Tuvulu and Turaath all involved , it will be a genuine tempo and I’m very bullish Jacquinot finishes over the top and becomes one of the most sought after future stallions in the country.
Ascot r1 Auspicious ; Set tongues wagging over 400m in September, winning her trial by 16 lengths. In that trial was the undefeated Brave Halo who is $3.40 in a Blue Diamond Prelude in Victoria today. Returned over 950m 23rd Jan and again they didn’t see which way she went . Yes trials and races are different kettle’s of fish but you don’t see many I Am Invincible 2yo’s kick off in WA and unless something unexpectedly has the early pace to hold her out and she punctures she looks too speedy for them over 1000m. The market moves will be fascinating . Currently $2.20 , I can see her jumping odds on , a big drift would set off alarm bells.
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Best Bet Belmont r7 Vonsnip ; Her maiden win really caught the eye and while I expected her to finish off a little better last time she still found the line for 3rd in a race with the strongest form lines for today’s race. Both were at today’s 1300m and with the cutaway in play , barrier 1 means she can do no work early and have a crack at them late. It’s each way the field and I’m confident she runs top 3. Digital Miss & Fortune’s Luck are the key dangers.
Best Value Belmont r8 Fries With That ; Is a big price considering the good run he should get. The 2nd to Gage Roads reads very well . Races somewhere near the top and gives a kick at silly odds. Deetea has been racing well without winning for some time now and gets “Pikeinthelast” . This phenomenon is going for 6 in a row and the form is there to back it up. My problem is the price which is likely to shorten when the bandwagon gets on but she goes close. The La Dette maiden form looks strong with Sizzle Me Patrick bolting in on Monday. Awesome Rival was much better last start ,
Box Trifecta ; 1 7 8 10 .
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1.2.3.7/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8/9.12/ 1 8.10 $192 for 100%
Best Bet Belmont r9 Playthatfunkymusic ; 3rds to REVITUP , Baby Paris and a 2nd to Cut The Talk is superior form to the others. Untried at the distance , if he gets the extra 100m he should go very close.
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Best Bet Ascot r6 Crystal’s Dream ; A lightly raced 3yo filly with a terrific record who steps up to Saturday grade for the first time , taking on the older horses. Showed versatility to lead last start so barrier 1 on the minimum should be advantageous . Needs to raise the bar again but I think the better class will actually suit her so she doesn’t have to do all the work herself. Also think she will reach a higher level than this in the future. Hoist The Colours is going very well in the bush and is not the worst $40 pop going around.
Novelties 10/2.3.8/2.3.5.7.8.9/1.2.3.5.6.7.8.9 $3 exacta , $15 Quinella $90 first 4
I also suggest a boxed trifecta 2 3 8 10 so we don’t have all our eggs in 1 basket ($24)
Quaddie (r6-9) ( 2.3.8) .10/1.6/5/1.2.5.6.7.9.11.12 $16 for 100% ($64 to include others first leg)
Geraldton r7 Jeanella ; City 2yo winner who won here impressively 1st up then ran 2nd in a 3yo NMW at Belmont. That has to be pretty good form for a Geraldton c2 and after the 4kg claim looks very well placed.
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Best Bet Esperance r8 Baby Blues ; 2/2 at Esperance , both wins full of merit . Just has to extend her current form out to 1600m and she is the one to beat again and we are getting each way odds.
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.Best Value Belmont r2 Frantic War ;
Frantic War is a much more seasoned horse this time in , hopefully gets across to outside the lead then gets some cover or slots in . If he reproduces the turn of foot displayed in his trials then he will be right in the finish.
Betting Strategy ; 20 % Win 80% place . Very confident he runs a big race but I really want to maximize the profit on the place . Best current odds is $7.50 / $2.45 (BET365) .
Novelties ; 4.8.11/4.8.11/2.3.4.8.11.12/2.3.4.8.11.12 $3 quinella , $24 trifecta , $72 first 4
Belmont r3 Fries With That ; Pike rode him to his only win 3 starts ago and he then ran a narrow 2nd to Gage Roads with 60kgs . That horse franked the form by running 3rd in the Breeder’s Classic Sunday. Forgive the latest fail when apprentice ridden. Reel Themoff has improved this prep and is the main danger . Banking on a head start with Pike getting everything out of Fries to fend him off.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; field , 4 8 11 , 1 3 , 5 6 . $84 for 100%
Best Bet Belmont r6 Hola Marea ; Won in the same grade and the same track & distance as a short priced favourite first up two weeks ago. While he goes up 1.5kgs and is yet to place 2nd up (2/3 first up ) , this is very winnable. Wary of Predetermined , eastern states provincial form is good enough for this and the stable have won heaps of races with these types. Goes in the quaddie.
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 5 6 , 1 2 5 6 9 , 1 2 , 3 6 9 $60 for 100%
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Best Value Pinjarra r9 Miss Intention : Only won 2 / 29 but those wins were both at Pinjarra and recent. The form out of the last start 2.4 lengths 6th is stronger than what it meets here. At $10 I’m happy to play each way.
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Best Bet Ascot r3 Wee Ripper ; Ran 2nd first up same track & distance and it’s second up record is far superior . This is no harder if not easier.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 2 3 , 1 (field) , 2 4 , 2 $6 for 100% ($54 field )
Best Value Ascot r7 Nobellity ; Won this grade over 1000m at 20’s then stepped out to 1200m and led everywhere but the post at 30’s in quick time. Should find the front again and this is no harder so $8.50 each way looks a great bet.
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Best Bet Ascot r3 Wee Ripper ; Ran 2nd first up same track & distance and it’s second up record is far superior . This is no harder if not easier.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 2 3 , 1 (field) , 2 4 , 2 $6 for 100% ($54 field )
Best Value Ascot r7 Nobellity ; Won this grade over 1000m at 20’s then stepped out to 1200m and led everywhere but the post at 30’s in quick time. Should find the front again and this is no harder so $8.50 each way looks a great bet.
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Best Value Belmont r9 Vonsnip ; Absolutely let rip to win her first race in 7 attempts last start . Started in the market in ok 2yo form races last season and this is wide open . Can take the confidence from last time and go on with it at $9 each way.
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1.5.7.10/2.6.8.9.11/2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9/13 $160 for 100% * Obviously spending $160 on a quaddie standing out a $9 pop in the last is high risk . Consider a smaller flexi stake or go for glory!
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Best Bet Geraldton r1 Ihts Closing Inn ; Narrowly beaten in a Pinjarra 1500m maiden first up . Fitter , drawn to get every chance and the journey to the bush should pay dividends.
Geraldton r3 Designated Drinker ; Is 3/3 since arriving here this season and all victories have been full of merit. Patchwork is the obvious danger with no weight on her back but she is unproven at the trip whereas our tip got the job done with 60kgs last start despite jumping 500m in distance and overcoming difficulties in the run.
Geraldton r4 Mocha Dream ; Apprentice ridden , first up , I can’t label a $1.55 pop a “Best Bet” but I can justify the short odds. It’s trial win was against stablemate Rockaria who won at Pinjarra on debut so this 3yo really should get the job done. At $1.75 I would of considered having a fair dinkum crack but the risk vs reward is now too great. Use it with the other two in a multi or trixie (2/3 have to win for a collect). There’s no such thing as a good thing in racing unfortunately.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 8 , 1 2 3 4 , 2 6 , 5 . $8 for 100%
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Best Bet Mt Barker R5 Zac Luvs To Fly,: Type o f horse who rarely wins but is never far away . The fact he should lead at a great track to do so and is coming from a win and 2nd in Pinjarra , Belmont c3/s makes him very hard to beat. Rosebush is going aswel as she can and is the clear danger/ quinella horse
Best Value Mt Barker r7 Chevel DE Vega ; Tough On Pacer who simply doesn’t lie down. While there will be a line of them having a crack late the fact he is each way odds encourages me to back him to fight them off.
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