Best Bet Ascot r2 Work In Progress ; Genuine 1000m horse drawn to get a gun run right on the leaders backs. Has been heavily supported into $2.60 which is pretty skinny considering the rise in class but is the best bet on a pretty lackluster program.
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Esperance r6 Baby Blues ; Was a talented mare early days before losing her way in the metro/provincial circuit. First run here resulted in a soft win. This is a big jump in class but there isn’t much difference in these country meetings and she drops to the minimum to compensate. Market flucs while writing this post last 5 mins have been $7 , $4 fav, $5 . Seems the bookies are guessing a fair bit , definitely need to go each way.
Best Bet Esperance r7 Count Grundy ; Out of all the horses in the market (virtually 4 equal favs) , he is the only one that has recent winning form at the distance . Gets in well after the claim and draws for an economical run.
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Best Value Pinjarra r2 Rockaria ; Was super impressed by his last trial , was run down for 2nd in quick time and looked like it had something left in the tank. !000m straight on debut with some ok form amongst the favourites is a bit of a guessing game but at $9 I’m willing to play each way.
Best Bet Pinjarra r5 ZaZa Rock ; Has run 2 close 2nds at only 2 starts and most of the field has either had plenty of chances or not shown much at trials. Horses in their first preps can train off at the drop of a hat but if she performs to her best she is extremely hard to beat.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 10/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9/4.6.7/1.2.3.6.7.8.10.11.12 $243 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r6 Seberate ; Hasn’t won for an eternity but has been competitive in races with form that is lengths better than what he meets here. Won’t get a better opportunity to break the drought from the perfect barrier.
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1.2.3.6.7/1.2.3.5.6.7.8/2/2.3.4.5.6.7 $210 for 100%
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Ascot r4 Prize Pursuit ; Up considerably in class , down 5.5kgs in weight and coming off a career best run at the same track & distance. Out of 7 runners we are literally the only runner not interested in the lead hence the sparks should be flying and we plan to have last shot at them . If he can replicate his finishing burst from last in a bigger field with 60kg then he has to be a chance. All The Kings Men deserves his favourite tag on the back of his last prep. First up no trial after a freshen up , hopefully he’s underdone and the rest are all around our level. Shame it’s only 7 runners so small win stake only and a crack at the novelties.
4.7/4.7/1.3.5.6..8/1.3..5.6..8 $10 trifecta , $40 first 4
Ascot r8 Roch Legacy ; Raced without luck 2 weeks ago in a very similar race where he got shuffled out of it before making ground ducking and weaving through traffic. Clearer air and I see no reason why he can’t be right in the finish at each way odds. Our Norman and Mr Fahrenheit coming out of the same race look the main dangers .
Best Bet Ascot r9 Buster Bash ; Had him on top for take 1 and my confidence has actually risen for the re run. Had a 1450m trial on Monday otherwise it would of been 5 weeks between runs which is the scenario Alaskan God now faces . Truly Inspired gets a long way back and loses Pike , that’s very important for mine. All Buster has to do is run the 2400m out strongly and he will be awfully hard to run down . Each Way special.
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Pinjarra r5 Lo Lo Lohnro ; Has had 1 1000m trial since arriving in WA which he won quite impressively. Hasn’t done much in NSW but this is very weak so speculating he is ready for the 1600m first up. Small stake bet.
Best Bet Pinjarra r8 Bopping Blue ; First up last prep he was too speedy for a similar field , same track and distance. Has changed stables but trial was very quick so a repeat could be on the cards. Ex stablemate Material Witness is 2/2 down the Pinjarra straight. Not an easy ride for an apprentice but looks the main danger.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1.2.8.9.10.13.15/1.2.4.5.7.8.9.10/1.8/1 (2) $112 for 100% ( $28 for 25% back up))
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Belmont Trixie : A trixie is a 4 combination bet ( 3 doubles and 1 treble ) involving 3 selections. Basically you need 2/3 to collect and 3 for a fill up. I often use this system when 2 of the selections are short priced favs. * Ain’t No Other Man is scratched leaving us with the double and making the quaddies redundant.
Belmont r1 Crystal’s Dream ; Yet to miss the podium in 4 starts and you could argue bad barriers cost her victory at her first 2 starts. Should appreciate the step up in distance , the rise to 59.5kgs the stumbling block at the short odds.
Belmont r4 Ain’t No Other Man ; Continues to jump favourite , continues to find 1 or 2 better on the day. Looked home again Cup Day until the flying duck Prize Pursuit ran him down . Beat the rest comfortably enough. Weaker race , less weight , finds the front . $2 is decent for his form and the race set up , will he put them away (I think he will) or will he wait for 1 to run him down , D Day!
Best Bet Belmont r6 Defiant Diorite ; Began the campaign with a shock victory at 100s , beating the talented Crystal’s Dream who starts odds on in r1. Since then it has backed it up with good runs in tougher company , especially last start when fighting to the line in a Saturday 3yo plate , only going down in the last stride in a 4 way photo. Either leads or gets a soft run from barrier 1, back in grade and looks hard to beat.
Early Quaddie (R1-4) ; 1/2.3.7.12/FD/1 $32 for 100%
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1/FD/4.11/1.2.3.5.6.7.8.9.12 $162 for 100%
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Belmont Trixie : A trixie is a 4 combination bet ( 3 doubles and 1 treble ) involving 3 selections. Basically you need 2/3 to collect and 3 for a fill up. I often use this system when 2 of the selections are short priced favs.
Belmont r1 Crystal’s Dream ; Yet to miss the podium in 4 starts and you could argue bad barriers cost her victory at her first 2 starts. Should appreciate the step up in distance , the rise to 59.5kgs the stumbling block at the short odds.
Belmont r4 Ain’t No Other Man ; Continues to jump favourite , continues to find 1 or 2 better on the day. Looked home again Cup Day until the flying duck Prize Pursuit ran him down . Beat the rest comfortably enough. Weaker race , less weight , finds the front . $2 is decent for his form and the race set up , will he put them away (I think he will) or will he wait for 1 to run him down , D Day!
Belmont r6 Defiant Diorite ; Began the campaign with a shock victory at 100s , beating the talented Crystal’s Dream who starts odds on in r1. Since then it has backed it up with good runs in tougher company , especially last start when fighting to the line in a Saturday 3yo plate , only going down in the last stride in a 4 way photo. Either leads or gets a soft run from barrier 1, back in grade and looks hard to beat.
Early Quaddie (R1-4) ; 1/2.3.7.12/FD/1 $32 for 100%
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1/FD/4.11/1.2.3.5.6.7.8.9.12 $162 for 100%
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Albany r3 Chad’s Me Dad ; Two promising runs to kick off the campaign then got too far back over 1400m. Her 2 career wins have been at 1600m and latest run indicates she’s screaming out for it.
Best Bet Albany r7 River Rubicon ; Looked in need of the run first up and got too far back 2nd up but he finished full of running both times. From barrier 2 he just needs to settle a little closer and get clear air to beat these.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1 3 5 6 8 , 3 4 5 7 8 10 , 3 , 2 4 6 $90 for 100%
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Best Bet Ascot r5 Goddess Of Giving ; Classy 3yo filly taking on the older horses which means she gets in on the minimum . Cheval De Vaga and Time Scale both like to lead and both are apprentice ridden so you would expect the pace to be on. This suits the filly perfectly and if the run appears she will be charging through. The early drift from $2.90 fav to $4,40 has me stumped. Not complaining though.
Best Value Ascot r6 Megazone ; Won 2 in a row this class track & distance , then went up in class and only beaten 1.5 by the very smart Alsephina before stepping up to 1800m and running 2nd . Maps to stalk Big Screen and he rarely shirks the task. 10/90% split at $15 / $3.70
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Best Bet Pinjarra r2 Northeast Eagle ; In a field with very little form , this 4yo geldings first two runs for the new stable at least indicate he is going well and will appreciate the extra 200m.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 3 5 6 , 1 , 1 3 8 , 1 2. $24 for 100%
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1 2 , 1 2 3 9 , field , 3 6 $96 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r1 Lucky Sue ; Cracking betting race where 5/6 have legitimate claims for different reasons. Sue has always shown ability and I’m thinking the soft kill when she destroyed a moderate maiden field over 1100 at Northam two starts ago has given her the confidence to now go through the grades. Backed it up when stepping up in grade and dropping back to the 1000m when getting the upper hand late. Think the 1200m will suit even better and the small field means she will be close enough to run over the top .
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Best Bet Ascot r2 Feels Playful ; Form says Saloon Bar rounds these up with form around quality 3yo’s in much stronger races. However my map says Feels Playful leads without pressure and pinches a break while the fav will have to swing wide from last. Think we can run home fast enough to make it very tough for something to make up that much ground .
Ascot r4 Prize Pursuit (Place) ; Senior rider goes on and providing he jumps he should get a great run maybe 3 back the fence. When he gets a run like that and a run appears then he can really attack the line. It’s $5 the field and while he can definitely win I suggest 10/90 % to make a decent profit out of the place.
Ascot r8 Buster Bash ; Was never going to lose the ATA Stakes and although he got the world perfect run , my map has him getting it near identical this time. Again does no work and it’s hard to see him not getting an extra 200m on that basis. Before the ATA Stakes I thought Alaskan God was almost past the post in the Perth Cup. Nothing wrong with his run , got way too far back but again he draws wide and is forced to go right back with a young Victorian jockey booked. Can’t take $3.80 vs $7 each way.
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 3.7/1.2.3.4.6.7.8.9/2.3.15/4.5.15 $144 for 100%
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Best Bet Pinjarra r4 West Coast Warrior ; Both runs this time in were eye catching. Ran on from well back both times , the second time he was held up and should of finished closer. Up 200m to 1500m should suit , where he gets too from barrier 1 a slight concern but if he see’s daylight early enough he should be right in the finish.
Best Value Pinjarra r6 Chad’s Me Dad ; Had a terrible prep in Winter but her two runs this time in have been much better. Maps to get a gun run smothered up midfield for Chris Parnham and the 1400m 3rd up looks ideal. Each way in a wide open race.
Pinjarra r8 Sunny Honey ; Very enigmatic 3yo who has a motor but does too much wrong . Finally jumped ok (for him at least) last start and got the job done. Stays in the same grade and can easily go back to back. The question is price , $2.40 for a horse you almost expect to blow the start is questionable.
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.11/3.4.6.7/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.11.12/8 $88 for 20%
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Mount Barker r4 Look Here Punk ; Great first up run for the new stable when running on into 2nd in a Albany maiden , beating home key rivals . Again the gate is sticky , especially for this track however the Faithful combo are pretty lethal down here and class can prevail.
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Belmont r6 Paddy’s Flyin ; 1000m was too short on debut but he still made up solid ground with some quick sectionals. Made amends over 1200 2nd up despite racing greenly in the straight. Storm Lord is first up no trial , could be hard to catch if ready but it’s a long straight at Belmont which gives Paddy every opportunity.
Best Bet Belmont r8 Outspoken Lad ; Drifted alarmingly in the market first up but still chased hard , only failing to run 1 down. Suited by the rise in distance where he has won 1/2 which was also 2nd up. Elderado River is flying , not much form behind him in his latest wins but he is the main danger.
Quaddie ( r5-8 ) ; 1 2 3 5 6 , 4 , 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 , 1 (9) $40 for 100% ($20 for 50% back up)
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Best Bet Esperance r5 Blazing Passion ; Always showed good speed in the metro/provincial area but couldn’t quite get it done. Sea change worked wonders with a soft win up on speed first up for the new camp . Same track , distance and class should produce the same result.
Pinjarra r8 Secret Statue ; Run on sprinter who seems to be at the top of his game. Always needs luck with his racing pattern but if he gets it he will finish over the top .
Best Value Pinjarra r9 Mombassa ; First up run was an absolute cracker , a little flat 2nd up but run through the line ok. 1600m 3rd up should suit. The bird has flown price wise ($19 into $9.50 no deductions) however it still looks an each way play.
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Best Bet Ascot r4 Big Bada Boom ; Maps to get a picnic in front with Pike in the saddle over a distance he has a solid record at. Alsephina form is the right form , 60kgs the steadier but it’s quite a compressed weight scale.
Best Value Ascot r8 Cockney Crew ; Another picnic in front map scenario . Looks like a near identical situation to last start and while he was no match for the winner he kicked strongly for 2nd. Neufbosc ran 3rd that day and will be hard to hold out but will he be out to bust a gut with the cup 7 days later? Considering Cockney is double figures with some operators I’m very happy to play on a 30/70 % basis.
Happy Festive Season and please gamble responsibly .
Best Bet Belmont r3 Fries With That ; Assessed this race with The Big One coming out of the market as it raced yesterday. They have decided on the rare 24hr back up which has thrown a spanner in the works however we got it beat yesterday and I’m going to stick to the plan. This is very weak (hence why the big one trying to pinch it ) and Fries has been running on well behind horses such as Crystal’s Dream and Emerald Trader . That’s good enough form for this plus Pike is jumping on. The fav prob leads but can it kick strong enough for another 100m on a 24hr back up? $1.80 is awfully short to find out. Big Spider has shown ability at trials .
Belmont r5 Belle Journee ; Ran 2nd to Call Me Violet at just 2nd start , that filly went back to back yesterday. From a good family , blinkers on , $5 looks a decent play each way in a wide open race.
Belmont r 7 Galaxy Affair ; Very consistent horse who is always in the mix no matter what grade you place him in. 59.5Kgs is getting close to where it hurts but his true handicap of 61.5 indicates he is the clear class runner of this field.
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Ascot r3 Boots Like Bruce ; 5yo who has only had 1 public trial 9 days ago where he was ridden aggressively but responded to win impressively in quick time. Straight to the races is a sign he’s cherry ripe for a first up win. The Big One is knocking the door down but keeps finding one better. Was disappointed with his last 100m last start .
Best Bet Ascot r7 Rock My Way ; 3yo filly who is 2/2 with decent form lines behind both victories. Not much meat on the bone at $2.50 considering she is taking on the older horses , up 400m and 5kgs however the rest of the field have a combined 21 wins from 250 starts so the 2/2 appeals.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 7 , 5 6 7 , 1 2 3 4 7 8 10 11 , 1 2 3 6 . $84 for 100%
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