*Best Bet Ascot r1 Nowhiteflag; Has carried a fair bit of expectation on him as the brother of brilliant mare Fabergino but unlike his sibling , was a bit suspect at the end of his 1000m runs in his debut prep. Resumed off a blistering 930 trial at 1200m which was a question mark on breeding but he destroyed them with the ears pricked. This is considerably tougher but he has drawn inside the other speed horses and it’s going to take a sustained sprint to run him down if he reproduces 1st up effort. $20 Island Charm interests me as a small side bet in case they over do it up front.
*At the time of writing the price has firmed from $2.10 into $1.85 before my eyes. That’s a terrible price but I will leave the tip here in hope it gets back out to black figures.
Next Best Ascot r5 Kaptain Kaos ; Despite the 2.5kg weight swing in Kissonallfourcheeks favor for being beaten by her last time they clashed , I am banking on the race shape for him to turn the tables . This will very likely be a sit and sprint so he might have to get going early and sustain it but he has done that off slow tempo’s in the past. The small field aids his cause and I’d rather be in clear air than searching for a run. I have been against the fav when she won and with her when she hasn’t all prep so I’m fearing the worst.
Best Value Ascot r6 Media Baron ; Was pretty ordinary as favourite in the Kalgoorlie Cup but that was on soft and his record suggests he’s a dry tracker. Almost a month between runs , back to 1400m in the Asian Beau , it was held up for most of the straight. From barrier 10 he should get clear air this time and if they are making ground he can unleash a big last 200m on his day. Not the worst at $21/$5.
Geraldton r7 Warm N Fuzzy ; Has found his calling in Geraldton and was never going to lose on Melbourne Cup Day when carrying the Lucky Duck Best Bet and bank balance on his back. The draw and slightly stronger opposition make this race a little trickier however he showed he doesn’t have to lead when running into 2nd behind Savage One start prior. Not a moral this time but still very hard to beat.
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