Best Bet Hawkesbury r3 Erno; 2yo who is 2/2 and ticked off the 1300m box with aplomb last start. Maps to get the lead on his terms and will take no end of running down.
Hawkesbury r4 Irithea; Loves to lead so last start 2nd was brave when she had to ease on hot speed but came again to run 2nd at a stronger level. 2nd up stats strong, maps to lead unchallenged this time. Only query is record at distance (10-0-3-2) but all other stats say she is deserved fav.
Hawkesbury r8 Tom Melbourne (place); At 1400m he would be my best win bet. At 1600m I’m envisioning him getting an absolute dream run behind favourite Archedemus , peeling off his back at the top of the straight, putting a length or so on them and look home then tip toe late. Very confident he can hold on to 2nd or 3rd but it will be close your eyes stuff last 50m !!
Hawkesbury Early Quaddie (r2-5); 3 4 5 8 9, 1, 1 3 6, 3 11, $30 for 100%
Caulfield r2 Mandela Effect; Exciting prospect with a booming finish on him. Small field helps and looks too classy.
Caulfield r5 Halvorsen; Touch unlucky first up where today’s rival Columbus Circle got all the favours. Think it can turn the tables with even luck and added fitness.
Caulfield Early Quaddie (r2-5); 1, field, 3, 1. $7 for 100%
Caulfield Quaddie (r6-9); 2 3 4 5 8 11, 8, 1 2, 1 3 5 10 11. $60 for 100%
Morphetville r2 Equal Love; Her record of 7 starts for 4wins 2 2nds has been achieved against older horses in higher grade. The fav Lassiter won a 3yo maiden on debut albeit impressively. Considering we will most likely get a fair head start in running , happy to take the better odds but will be looking for the swooper late.. Maybe an exacta with the fav winning as insurance if you like to bet that way.
Morphetville r4 Scottish Rogue; Putting 3 wins from 18 down to the fact of what grade he was tested in early on. Back to this level, especially this prep he has been impressive and looks hardest to beat.
Morphetville r8 Star Missile; After a breathtaking win first up has had a mixture of bad luck and keeps running into Mr Quickie. He is $1.60 in Melbourne and we are getting $6 each way here! Great 40/60 bet.
Eagle Farm r2 Le Juge; Couldn’t find the line in a one horse race in NSW, has won 4 from his last 5 in Qld and $330k in stakes, each time attacking the line with vigour over 1600m. 1800m record is terrible but banking on that was the NSW horse.
Betfair Plays; New segment looking at my best short priced fav to shop around for a price and best fav to lay (offer odds to other users and hope it loses)
Back Eagle Farm r8 Gem Song; The short odds look justified in this field. Terrific run latest and locals look like stayers on a Derby path.
Lay Caulfield r8 Widgee Turf; Think Waging War is a big danger and Widgee will need luck from barrier 1. Happy to lay if it remains $1.70 (offer $1.80) but wouldn’t go too hard as it will go close just under the odds in my opinion.
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