Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r6 Secret Attraction ; Brings Kalgoorlie form which is a worry but has at least won at Ascot in the past. Is showing an electric turn of foot for the new stable and Pike was on for the hatrick in Kal so he knows what he’s working with.

Ascot r8 September Born ; Please note this is not a tip for today but a future’s prediction for both the WA Guineas and Northerly Stakes. Another very exciting Playing God 3yo who was put straight in the paddock after a soft 2yo win on debut in June. His trial was ultra impressive and no doubt he has been aimed at this carnival since day dot. The barrier means he will have to pull out something extraordinary tomorrow over the 1200m . Not ruling him out by any means but they are not going to bust him with the big targets ahead. The best I can find for the above futures markets is on BET365 . $4.25 Guineas , $9 Northerly. 3yo’s have a great record in the Northerly and Neville Parnham trained his Sire to win two of them , the first one after winning the guineas in his 3yo year. A lot has to go right with futures betting but I’m very confident he’s the one should he stay sound.

WA Spring Carnival Runners

Mooney Valley r7 Oscar’s Fortune ; Great run first up in a harder race , he deserves favoritism based on his form around Overpass in WA’s features alone. He is versatlie and fast enough for Damian Lane to ride him how the track and race pattern needs him to on the day. No moral with the up n coming Baraqiel in the race however he is definitely WA’s best chance to get on the board this spring.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Value Belmont r1 Kidding Me ; Trialing and drawn well for her debut in a very even race. Has already been support to show it’s ready and it’s each way odds.

Belmont r3 The Agency ; Looks ready to win a maiden after a solid 2nd first up in 3yo company. Was hoping for a bigger price as I’m scared stiff of Earthstorm who clearly has the best form . Banking on the map advantage to help us but you definitely have to bet on a 25/75% split.

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Ascot r1 The Merryman ; Won a Northam 1300m maiden on debut , ripping down the outside from last , beating an odds on favourite who was heavily backed again and won Thursday. Straight to town but most of the others have similar provincial form and we are getting $19 to see if he’s up to it.

WA SPRING Reps

Randwick r9 Amelia’s Jewel ; 29th September 2023 she sat outside Pride Of Jenni over 1600m and out muscled her as a $1.35 favourite. Didn’t mean much at the time but think about that now and how the two horses paths have changed. If she recaptured her best then clearly she can run a great race , finally back out to the 1600m. I can’t back her but I can wish her well and hope she proves some critics wrong with a big run.

Caulfield r10 Ripcord ; Liked his first up run down the straight . My negative here is the end of 1400m , especially 2nd up. I’m not the trainer though and he has probably been prepared differently with different targets in mind. Not in my numbers but again I wish connections the best of luck.

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Wednesday Winners

Ascot r4 SRM : Golden Dore & Winning Shuffle Top 4 ; Both horses are coming off very impressive, fast finishing maiden victories . Golden Dore was on debut so should have plenty of upside. Winning Shuffle has to repeat a spike in performance but is still lightly raced and is 3rd up so should still be on the up this campaign. While Divine Impact is technically down in grade the form from her first up win is not as strong as the class suggests and she is jumping from 1000m to 14000m 2nd up. Can absolutely beat these but no way could I take the odds on qoute , hence the SRM and perhaps a little spec on both to win.

Best Bet Ascot r6 Pin Deep ; Speedster who can sustain high speed over the short course trips. There are a couple of roughies who are drawn inside him that could possibly try and hold him out early but I’m confident he can sit outside one of them in a worst case scenario and still hold off the swoopers. If he does burn to the front then it should be game over. A little embarrassing picking a $2 pop as the best bet however I have it rated at $1.70 ish in this field.

Ascot r7 Border Force ; While I don’t have much separating him and Snippy Sean , I’m banking on the barrier advantage being the difference . Also has the 1600m runs under his belt if it gets willing at the end.

Best Value Ascot r8 Camera Action ; I concede barrier 12/13 over the 1200m at Ascot will probably be a bridge too far however after having a good collect at $3 last start, I can’t let it go round at $17 without a little each way bet . Horse is flying and with luck in running , hopefully 3 wide with cover , she’s better than a $17 chance.

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Ascot r7 Chollima ; Her 3 wins from 9 starts have all been first up and 2 of them were over 1200m , 1 here at Ascot. She is $18 to keep her unbeaten fresh record intact and that’s enough for me to bet each way. Esprit Garcon is very exciting and may be too good but barrier 17 at Ascot with a bar plate going on , no thanks.

WA Spring Carnival Representation

Caulfield R9 Oscar’s Fortune ; Very speedy and from barrier 2 over 1100m Damian Lane might land in front which is often the place to be over the sprint trips at Caulfield . Solid chance in a very even race , I won’t be backing him but will be cheering for WA PRIDE!

Caulfield r10 Alsephina ; Pretty dominant win 2nd up back on dry ground against the mares. Taking on the likes of Another Wil and Antino in a group 1 handicap is another level . Not a bet for mine but she has run 2nd in a Railway Stakes and is in the mix.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Bunbury r2 Boussac ; Has bumped into 2 horses better than maiden grade this prep and while Saintly Cullity might fit the same boat , barrier 3 vs 13 in a big field is too big an advantage to ignore. Needs to get it done today.

Bunbury r4 Perfect Chant ; Debuted successfully in a Saturday 3yo plate and now rocks up to a Bunbury c1 at the same odds . With the “good 3yo’s” returning for spring riches this is as good a c1 you will see but having the race fitness over 1200m still has me firmly in her corner.

Bunbury r7 With Discretion ; Was touted to be too good for maiden grade on debut and that proved to be the case , albeit getting a Pike peach . Beat Bousaac that day so hopefully the form is franked after r2. Follows a recent trend of jumping straight to a c3 to stay down in the weights and draws wide however we most likely have to pay #Pikeinthelast tax on the price.

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Sunday Prayers

Northam r4 Haida Gwai ; Trialing well for her debut and barrier 1 over the Northam 1000m is a massive advantage over the equal favourite Red Autumn who has 13. The form from his 2nd run is outstanding for this and he has Pike but the barriers sway me . Nothing wrong with Magnique’s trials either .

SRM 11 top 2 , 3 & 12 top 4 .

Best Bet Northam r7 Miss Wall Street ; Think Camera Action form will stand up here and from barrier 2 she should get a great run to stalk the pace and put them away.

Best Value Northam r9 Ensign Pulver ; 10yo gelding who is impossible to catch and rarely wins however he is drawn to get the run of the race from barrier 1 , most likely tagging the favourite Looks and hopefully today’s his day at big odds.

Quaddie (r6-9) ; 5 , 7 , 1 4 5 6 8 9 10 , Field $56 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r2 Don’t Wait For Luck ; Has hit his straps last two with easy wins against easier competition. The way he has been hitting the line suggests the increase in distance will be no disadvantage and the rise in class is offset by the drop in weight. Pads going on his feet a slight query at the odds.

Kalgoorlie r5 Abloh ; Is a home track specialist where he is 2/2 at 1400m. Best suited when he can sit out of trouble and unleash a powerful turn of foot like last start in a similar race. Competitive race but the stable is dominating Kal like usual and he is going to be hard to beat.

Kalgoorlie r8 Starry Heights ; How do they beat him off his last start win ? If your a short price multi type of punter then here is your banker. Quaddie anchor for me.

Best Value Kalgoorlie r9 Sunny Honey ; Two close up 3rds to Rope Them In and Toropa is outstanding form for this. The fail in between was luckless and should of been a win. Secret Style will lead and be very hard to catch however I’m very confident she places and can challenge at $7 each way.

WA SPRING CARNIVAL RUNNERS

Flemington r9 Ripcord; His win in last year’s Placid Ark when exploding down the outside and catching Oscar’s Fortune indicated how talented he is and he backed it up with a 3rd to Overpass in the Winterbottom. Trial indicated he is ready to go and 1200m is his sweet spot. Track conditions on the day vital as I don’t want to get involved on a deteriorating track , anything worse than a soft 5 and I’m out. This is a wide open group 2 down the straight with Damian Lane booked to take the ride. Key scratchings have shortened the odds to $8.50 . I suggest waiting to see what the market does closer to jump as I feel it will drift back out.

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Gero Gambles

Best Bet Geraldton r7 Major Mario ; Only won the 2 from 16 but one of those was this track and distance to win his maiden. Went back to the big smoke and looks ready to break through on his recent form.

Quaddie (r4-7) ; field , 5 , 2 4 6 9 , 5. $48 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r2 Lucky Lily ; Has really appreciated the move to the goldfields and the step up in distance. This is a stronger field than the one she demolished last start however she gets in on the minimum and Peter Fernie runners rarely go backwards when they hit form.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Bunbury r7 Our Mate Archie ; Was trialing like a good horse before nothing went right on debut. Made amends 2nd up , holding a promising maiden at bay despite sitting wide no cover throughout. Goes to a C3 but that means he stays at 58kgs instead of 60kgs in a c1. Our Nemesis is exactly that , Ran 10 lengths last as a best bet in between 2 wins. Strange horse and has to carry 61kgs first up.

Nakayama (Jap) r11 Satono Reve ; Our local star hoop Damian Lane returns to Japan for 1 ride in a group 1 sprint. While I’m not very aware of the form it’s pretty obvious by it’s record of 9 wins from 7 including 2/2 track & distance that it will be hard to beat as a $3 favourite. Made a lot of money following Damo in Japan .

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r2 Blue Rocket ; Basing this tip on her 3rd in the Karrakatta plate. She got every chance last start but couldn’t run down the stablemate. From the draw and with Pike staying on she should get every chance again . Across Generations will get back and hit the line like he did in the same race as Blue Rocket last time. The extra 100m and further look ideal.

SRM Blue Rocket win , Across Generations top 4.

Best Value Belmont r3 Final Authority ; Tracked the two speedsters all the way this track & distance and although he couldn’t reel them in , he held 3rd. He will get the identical run from the inside gate tracking Miss Flirtatious who is first up. Can pinch this or at least hold down a place at nice odds.

WA SPRING CARNIVAL WATCH.

Rosehill Race 7 Amelia’s Jewel ; Despite another defeat , there was nothing wrong with her first up run , in fact it was enormous considering the track pattern and race shape. Tomorrow all comes down to conditions. The wetter the better for equal favourite Semana. At this stage I’m going to sit on the fence and just hope she gets the job done.

Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r5 Boussac ; Did enough first up to suggest he is ready to win a maiden. Faces off with a Peter’s Investments 3yo on debut. Always have to be respected but Pike and the colours are factored into the price which means we get slightly better odds with form on the board.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r3 Simply Thinkin ; Ran a fast finishing 2nd this grade / distance first up and the winner franked the form by winning Saturday. Be Bardot the obvious danger but I can’t get it odds on coming from a c1 1200m.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Outfield ; A repeat of last start 3rd against better opposition would see it go very close here. Hopefully doesn’t work to hard early and has enough left to hold them off .

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King's Birthday Present

Best Bet Bunbury r5 Magnum Class ; I concede he lacks a killer punch but he is dropping from c5 company and it’s Lane/Parnham at Bunbury. Top of The Walk has recent form behind winning horses but is a 10 start maiden and Magnachine is coming from c1’s. Placed to perfection.

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Sunday Prayers

Kalgoorlie r2 Date Withthe Devil ; Short enough for a horse with limited ability but draws to get a soft run for Pike in a very moderate maiden. Only has to maintain the level of his first up run to beat these.

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Starry Heights.; Returned to form in the Coolgardie Cup , hitting the line with purpose and just failing to catch Admiration Express . The extra distance looks in his favour to turn the tables and they have a stronger formline than the other fancy Iowa .

Toodyay r3 Apache Blue ; Belmont c3 form should be far superior for Toodyay and he beat home rival Magnificent Carat recently.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r1 Oregan Hiker ; We got him at $9 in a C1 last start where he was too fast for them. Doubt he leads here as there is speed galore but actually think camped on Norich / Smokey Mountain will be perfect. $2.80 is hard to swallow on a Saturday but it is a very thin meeting in general.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r3 Camera Action ; Was keen on her last start but I was put off by the wide draw which can be poison at Kal . Made a mess of them regardless and although this is back in the city she has performed admirably against better opposition than she meets here in the past.

Best Value Belmont r6 Sunny Honey ; Won in this grade / distance 3 starts ago then finished 2 lengths off Russian Sniper & Toropa at her next two in Saturday grade. That is very solid form for a $7 chance in this. The sticking point might be the good ground as her wet form reads more consistent.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Northam r4 Muddy Waters; Big form turnaround at career start three when running down The Top Bar in a 3yo OMLY at big odds. His two previous runs he ran last. Think the increase in distance plus race experience was the difference so the extra 100m is ideal . Has to do it on good ground and any leader bias pattern early would cancel the tip .

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Weekend Winners (Copy)

Belmont r1 Perfect Chant ; Won both trials by a margin , showing good early toe and kicking away late. Chris Parnham was on in the 2nd one and when she crossed to the rail late she looked much more comfortable. Chris sticks and she has enough speed to hopefully cross straight to the front and take running down on debut.

Belmont r4 Bondi Plunge ; Has always shown glimpses of Saturday ability and her first up win as a 4yo indicated she may be ready to take the next step . Should get every opportunity in the same grade with only 1/2 kg more weight. $2.60 is short enough however I can understand bookies being scared of any Dan Morton runner presently .

Best Bet Belmont r8 Man Crush ; Barrier 1 and no Pulli in the race means he finally gets a chance to lead on his terms. .Under those conditions he is always very hard to catch . Frigid is a nice mare but favourite over 1200m? Hopefully tops off a big day for Chris Parnham and Lucky Duck Tip Followers!

WA Spring Carnival Runners

Rosehill r8 Bustling ; Moved to the Eastern States and already given an Everest Slot , WA’s dominant 2yo from last season has drawn perfectly to either towball Storm Boy into the straight or lead them up if he doesn’t cop too much heat. I couldn’t possibly get involved at the price , he’s WA form is nowhere near this level but if the leaders are dominating then the quinella with Storm Boy is worth consideration. $2 a place under favourable conditions would also be tempting , otherwise happy just to see how he goes towards other targets .

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