Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Ascot r3 Heavenly Sky : Thought it’s debut 3rd was massive considering where it came from on the corner , running past a long priced winner on Wednesday in Winning Aces to give the form some merit. Hopefully can settle much closer from the better barrier and set after the likely leader and stablemate in Market Stryke . He was unlucky first up and hasn’t missed a place in five attempts . Being a stablemate in a big betting stable , a significant move either way will influence our confidence. If they come for the favourite and she drifts , leave it alone . If they support the filly bet with confidence. If both remain steady proceed with caution.

Ascot r7 Currimundi ; 2 lengths 3rd behind Rockinori ( Won Saturday’s Roberts Stakes running down Trix Of The Trade ) stands out like a beacon here. 2nd in that race has since failed but in a harder race. Not much meat on the bone at $2.10 but if it’s not him it’s a raffle .

Ascot Quaddie (r5-8) 2 5 (6) 8 9 , 1 5 , 4 , field * $110 for 100% or you considering having less percentage on runners 2 5 8 9 in first leg , higher spend on the fav 6 as it’s hard to beat.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r4 Melody’s Secret ; We found her at 30’s two starts back in a Belmont c3 and the race sets up similarly. Drawn to sit midfield the fence with no weight and if the breaks go her way late she is capable of a burst of speed that gives her a sniff at good each way odds. We might get better than the current $16 too. 25/75 % split of stake .

Best Value Ascot r6 Feels Danish ; 3yo fillies where nearly all are a query at the distance , Feels Danish is not. Last horse to run past Float Our Boat who has won 3 since in effortless fashion. Last start I feel she wasn’t suited to being held up waiting for the cutaway so from the wide draw can try and turn it into a staying test. Although this is a listed race , being competitive against older horses in the distance range is a great base to attack this race from . 40/60 % split of stake. Constant Dreaming very hard to beat and worth saving on but going for the value.

Early Quaddie r3-6 ; 1 , 4 6 8 , 1 4 , 1 6 . $12 for 100%

Best Bet Ascot r8 Tri For Us ; First go at the trip but has had a very solid build up for it culminating in a tough win over 1800m. There’s no questioning the stables preparation of stayers and if she gets the trip she’ll win. Baranova is the true stayer with upside , her first up run indicated to me she may need at least this one before she shows her best.

Ascot r9 Cristal Dane ; What a preparation this mare is having . Bought as a broodmare proposition she has now won two and placed in two Saturday graduation races . I have a picture in my bar of Angelique’s Fame beating her at Bunbury only last year. This is a step up again , especially when you compare the form lines to Comes a Time but that horse is suspect at 1400m and Weaponson will be giving her a big head start.

Quaddie r7-10 ; 1 3 6 8 9 10 , 6 , 3 4 7 , 1 2 . $36 for 100%

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Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r3 War Hymn ; Failed to run down a leader who got a picnic in front first up but still fought it out to the line. Not much form to work with amongst the opposition and those that have shown anything at all are likely going to have to give us a head start from their respective barriers.

Pinjarra r7 Float Our Boat ; It’s two wins at Mt Barker have been dominant front running performances. This is a big step up but our staying ranks are very even so a free running leader who will be out of trouble will always take catching. He’s A Lucky Lad is also nominated for Saturday. If he’s scratched then the price will be gone so at least wait for acceptances so you don’t cop a massive deduction.

Pinjarra Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 , 1 2 3 4 5 7 , 9 , 6. $54 for 100% *

*you could easily consider adding n1 in 3rd leg if here , I’m happy to spend less and risk it.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r3 Snippy Miss ; A strike rate of 3/39 and 1/21 track record don’t exactly scream BEST BET however she has run a plethora of placings and I don’t rate the others at the top of the market. The Durrant / CJP combo is on fire , a bit like our tips so we’ll combine again.

Novelties ; Keen to take on Time Scale and Kholi so we will try and make some money out of the novelties .

1st 5

2nd 1 4 7 ($3 exacta)

3rd 1 2 4 7 ($9 Trifecta)

4th Field ($45 first 4)

Ascot r4 My Boy Chris ; Did work both first and 2nd up and both winners look above maiden grade. Maps to get every possible and back 100m so one more chance to hang on. Lexington City on debut looks the clear danger.

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Monday Money Makers

York r5 Stellar Fair ; The horse it beat last start won at Pinjarra Thursday and is a promising horse who I would heavily favour to beat this lot. Durrant is the master of picking off country feature races with his lesser lights. CJP is his willing accomplice.

Best Bet York r6 The Anvil ; Can’t go past the 2nd to Gallant Ranger two starts back in this line up , especially with the likely map advantage over the other main chances in Rocky Path , Under The Radar and Orange Strudel.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Esperance r4 Wise Words ; Just touched off in a metro c1 , yes the form out of the c1 is pretty average but it now comes to an Esperance c2 . The Albany maiden win at the start prior was quite solid and that form has stood up. The 3rd to My Baby Blue Jean is very good for this despite beaten margin as she would do the same if not worse to these.

Esperance r7 Off Wego ; $4 is short enough for a horse racing out of his weight division but the stable just place their stayers to perfection as today’s Bunbury Cup shows. They simply have the secret to getting the best out of horses over a distance. There’s not much difference in the WA stayers class wise until you get to the very top few so with CJP making the trip he is the one to beat.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Spin The Knife ; Speedster that jumps and runs it’s opposition into submission. They made the mistake of trying to take a sit in the Magic Millions 3yo and the horse seemed to resent it. Unbeaten at the track and distance , very confident if it finds the front it’s over. 3kg claim for a front riding apprentice perfect , my one concern is Express Time trying to match motors early as it’s drawn inside her with another apprentice on . Tipping a $2.10 Favourite doesn’t seem hard on paper but it’s all relative. If it leads it’s more a $1.50 chance so there is value in that $2.10. Betfair in the run will be a useful get out of jail card early in this race if required.

Ascot r4 Karli’s Karma ; O’Donnell and Karli go together like a fine drop of red and dark chocolate, the perfect pairing. When she gets a suck run just behind the speed she can put a race to bed very quickly and she maps to get this exact scenario. Loved all her runs this time in and although she is attempting 1600m first time , I think she is up to it.

Ascot r5 Costume Party (All in Karrakatta Plate ) ; It’s two 1000m runs behind speedster Revitup were most encouraging run on efforts. Then took on the unfamiliar role of pacemaker over 1200m and was only run down by Sheeza Belter. That filly is the benchmark for our 2yo season so far. With her off to Sydney I can see value in the $31 dollars for the 1200m Karrakatta Plate (Tabtouch). Can definitely see her winning Saturday but will watch the market to see if she is ready first up off a freshen up and prefer the 1200m. She wont be $31 after Saturday if she go close Saturday.

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Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r5 Strike Now ; Only won a relocated Narrogin maiden on debut but was impressive all the same and winning form has come out of it since. Just missed next start when having to wait for a run to appear on the fence. Should get clear air to round them up this time.

Pinjarra Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1 2 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 , 5 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 , 6 $99 for 100%

* My Baby Blue Jean should be too speedy for them in r7. I’m not going to take odds on about anything in a straight race with an apprentice on but she is drawn to find the outside fence and run them into the ground. If she got to $2 I’d be tempted, for now I’ll just stand her out in the quaddie.

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Wednesday Winners

Ascot r2 Metallon ; It’s debut win was arrogant then went straight to 3yo Saturday grade. Resumes off a solid trial win and with two speedsters engaged should be finishing off hard. Scared stiff of Harmika so having a win bet and quinella with the favourite. If your eligible for tabtouch money back 2nd even better.

Ascot r7 Arno The Fox ; Was ridden very aggressively last start and did a great job to fight on for a close up 3rd. Should get a more economical run from the barrier and can definitely play a part. Think it will drift enough to go 40 / 60 % each way. Blonde Warrior and Luke’s Choice go in the quaddie.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Friar Away ; The two recent 2nds to Holy Enchantment and Come Right Back is far superior form. Won’t be getting too carried away with a full field of Midweek stayers but am pretty confident it runs top 3 .

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Mount Barker r3 Fred Dag ; Has won 5 races and 320k in stakes . Horribly out of form in the metro / provincial region but first run here ran 3rd with 59.5.kgs. Drops to 55kgs in a winnable race. Worth A Risk is clearly the in form runner of the race , $2 for a horse dropping 600m in distance deep into a campaign not worth the risk in my opinion.

Like yesterday not super confident so stake accordingly and hopefully we get it right like yesterday! Please gamble responsibly .

Weekend Winners

`-Ascot r2 Pink Carats ; 1000m specialist who was brilliant last start , keeping the pressure on a fast horse on a leaders track and getting the better of him late. This time he most likely gets a great suck run behind another fast tempo and finishes over the top. $2 is rock bottom but it’s hard to go past him on current form.

Best Bet Ascot r5 Tri For Us ; Did all the work outside the leader at Pinjarra over this distance and gave a good kick before being run down by Jadavi , 3rd was Holy Enchantment. Jadavi finishes like Winx at Pinjarra , winning again since and Holy Enchantment won last Saturday as our very confidently backed best bet. Then went to Albany with 59kgs and was a class above. 59kgs and barrier 10 are tough obstacles to overcome but she is both versatile and tough.

Have been super bullish about some of our best bets lately but declaring today is a very tough day and to stake accordingly.

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Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Pennys Afield ; Two fast finishing placings to kick off her career has her primed to breakthrough today. The form out of her latest run is much stronger than what she meets here and the extra 100m looks right up her ally. $2.40 is the best I can find (bet365) , wouldn’t be surprised if it jumps odds on , very confident about this one.

Best Value Pinjarra r8 Canto De Guerra : Specific track & distance form is most important for the straight 1000m and although tabtouch says no runs , his last two have been a win and 3rd . The day he won he found the outside fence which is a huge advantage. Finding the outside might be tough from barrier 4 but $10 looks a decent enough value each way play.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Pinjarra r4 My Boy Chris ; Good run first up considering he did a little work early and cast a plate in running. The winner has since franked the form with another brilliant win.

Best Value Pinjarra r8 Outrageous ; The run in the Winterbottom was outrageous from last . First up raced very well again without luck. Drawn to get a better run and $9 each way looks outrageous value in a great race.

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Weekend Winners (Copy)

Published this Friday night and was very confident on the best bet Damn facebook didn’t publish it for some reason.

Ascot r4 My Baby Blue Jean ; In the two races she has been able to lead she has won comfortably. I think she can find the top again. Via Monte beat her home the day she didn’t lead on debut , clear danger , especially if we don’t find the front or have to work hard to get there.

Best Bet Holy Enchantment ; Trainer has taken his time getting him to the staying trip but he has always looked like he will appreciate it. Last run was a ripper considering the weight and time between runs. Finishes off his races hard and if he runs out 2200m I’m very confident he wins.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r4 My Baby Blue Jean ; In the two races she has been able to lead she has won comfortably. I think she can find the top again. Via Monte beat her home the day she didn’t lead on debut , clear danger , especially if we don’t find the front or have to work hard to get there.

Best Bet Holy Enchantment ; Trainer has taken his time getting him to the staying trip but he has always looked like he will appreciate it. Last run was a ripper considering the weight and time between runs. Finishes off his races hard and if he runs out 2200m I’m very confident he wins.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r3 Cafe Nera ; Up and coming stayer who has won 2 of his last 3 against a typical midweek stayers race ie battlers with poor strike rates. 2kg claim means it stays at same weight.

Belmont r4 Georgeous Gossip ; Only 1 win from 17 starts but last start ran 2nd in the 3yo magic millions at 150s. Has raced predominantly in harder races and gets it’s chance to breakthrough. Can No Dice run a strong 1200m? Big danger if it can along with the flying Cobbanco . 25 / 75 % each way if it remains a field of 8 runners.

Best Value Belmont r9 Wild Galah ; Brought up win number 3 from 62 starts here (Transferred from Narrogin) as a $2.80 favourite. Ran 2nd previous start in a c3 , same class as today. Couldn’t possibly have the favourite Kohli who was very plain last start when backed off the map . I was one of those punters so keen on revenge and happy to play each way at $11. The three 3yo’s Mama Tembu , Private Scene and to a lesser extent Rommels War make more appeal than the favourite . Box Trifecta with Wild Galah for $24 and if Kohli wins connections can thank me !

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Geraldton r6 Admiral Husson ; Finds the front early then it will take some beating on runs this preparation. On paper it looks very likely but other jockeys may think their best chance is making it work. For this reason I am having a saver on Human Nature who beat it home last start, 3rd that day was our roughie who saluted at Belmont Wednesday in Melody’s Secret.

Weekend Winners

Ascot r2 Rulelee ; Has gone from a tease maiden horse to putting them away very softly at last two last starts. Westpeed Platinum races are not typical Saturday grade races so the step up isn’t as big as it looks. 1400m , 1300m back to 1200m some concern but she should settle close enough to use her turn of foot to round them up.

Best Multi Ascot r3 Trade War into r5 Trix of the Trade ; Try hard not to tip odds on favourites as they rarely indicate their true chances of winning. Trade War @ $1.95 is justifiable given he doesn’t run into the flying Cheval de Vega and conditions are expected to be much more favourable than last time when leaders dominated. Trix of the Trade just looks classes above his opposition. While the winning margin wasn’t a space job last time . the jockey was very kind to him and this is no harder , in fact it’s a near identical field. The current multi price of $2.83 is a decent bet .

Best Bet Ascot r7 Cristal Dane ; Has gone from an inconsistent mare capable of a big run on her day to a most consistent performer since the stable change. From an outsider she seems to have relished the tactics change of now going forward in her races. If Watson can get her to at least outside the leader without burning too much petrol then she should prove very hard to catch . The 3kg claim is ideal however punching into a strong south westerly headwind may not be so monitor earlier races for a guide.

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Albany Analysis

Best Bet Albany r5 Spirit of Prophecy ; Has beaten a few of these home recently in running 2nd at it’s last two. Maps to get the perfect run behind the speed. Record of 1 win from 33 with 12 minor placings suggests we definately go each way to cover stake. Special Royale has the obvious upside being 1/1 and from the state’s leading yard. Should go close but is short enough for a narrow Mt Barker maiden winner.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r1 Marchamley ; Sat outside the leader over 1200m on debut and while no match for the winner , he stuck on bravely for 2nd. Added fitness , race experience and the ideal barrier (2) suggest he can go one better. The favourite Cwyer looks a nice horse in the making however giving away experience and a tricky draw (9) makes me lean me towards taking the better price.

Best Bet Belmont r7 She’s A Sweet Deel ; Ran home satisfactorily off an unsuitable tempo behind a smart one last start. Likely to get a fair way back again but is 3/4 at Belmont where the long straight suits. By Dundeel the step up to a mile shouldn’t be an issue.

Best Roughie Belmont r10 Melody’s Secret ; First up in early December she won a Northam cl3 over today’s 1000m. Two failures at Belmont since , things went wrong on both occasions. Most recent run at Geraldton was a decent enough effort. They are more than likely going to go too hard in this and she should be parked in behind them so I’m going to have a little each way at $51 / $7.50 .

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