Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r5 SRM

Smooth Chino (2) Win / Top 2 , Cessation (7) Top 3 , Repossession (1) Top 4

I am in love with Smooth Chino . Made him a MEGABET of the Pinnacles last start and it was never going to lose once it saw daylight. It maps to get an identical run again , tracking Cessation to the bend and then pouncing. Not declaring it at the odds as running her down is a tougher assignment and then we have Repossession who has Joker’s Grin form in our review mirror, If he was drawn better he’d be a legitimate threat. I trust Chino to rise to the occasion but not going to risk the bank at odds on. The multi with him winning increases the risk for better return .

Best Roughy Ascot r7 Camera Action ; When this mare gets the right run , ie midfield with cover off a fast pace , she can really hit the line. While her record suggests 2nd up over 1400m might be better , I can’t let her go round at $40s without a small heavy place each way investment.

Best Each Way Ascot r8 Bonjoy ; She has had a disastrous prep trying to qualify for the group 1’s . Sometimes that can continue when they drop in grade and the jury’s out after last start. I want to give her one last chance with the jockey change and wide barrier where she can sit out of trouble and attack them down the outside in clear air. Her first up run was her best under a similar scenario .

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Pinny Punts

Best Each Way Pinjarra r3 Xelcimus ; Coming off back to back 2nds and the latest was this track & distance when only run down by the very talented Seven Candles who went on with the job yesterday. He’s still very green but better value than Radiant Light who has ability but hasn’t worked out how to win yet and continues to go down at short prices.

SRM Radiant Light (4) Top 2 Xelcimus Top 3 .

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r4 Seven Candles : Wasn’t sure he was traveling like a winner first up then all of a sudden he exploded , picking them up with a couple of big strides . That was 1300 and 1600 looks ideal even with the 60kgs . At $2.15 it’s probably a good idea to check there is no on pace bias before investing , Pony Up with only 54kgs looks next best .

Best Each Way Ascot r7 Showlas , Significant class dropper who should get a relatively soft run out in front and take running down. Any on pace bias or lack thereof affects her chances either way . Only knock on the fav Conchetta’s Dream is the price , Showlas the place is paying more . Touretto’s latest run for the new stable was unbelievable at 60’s. Massive chance on that run but when they win at those prices I want to see it again before trusting.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Bunbury r6 Take a Leaf ; 4th on debut over 1200m from barrier 11 , 1st 2nd up over 1400m from barrier 15 , hitting the line hard on both occasions and both here at Bunbury. Is barrier 1 a help or hindrance ? Happy to suggest she is clearly the best horse in this so will pray for some luck in the straight and she should have them covered.

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Weekend Winners

Mad Roughy Ascot r2 Capal Gusta ; Failed to finish at $201 on debut when Jockey wasn’t happy with it’s action. Raced 2 weeks later at $151 and finished 11/12 beaten 10 lengths . On this occasion it was equal 1st with 200m to go before dropping out sharply. Back to 1000m with gear changes to try and iron out some issues , just going to spec it at big odds on the basis it has race experience vs a lot of first starters. From as much as $51 into $34 , I’m not alone in finding it. You would think we get much bigger race day considering it’s SP profile .

Best Value Ascot r3 Major Mario ; He’s last two wins have been when he’s gone beyond 2000m which strangely he doesn’t do very often. Same track , distance and grade at double figures will do me in a typically wide open stayers race.

Best Each Way Ascot r5 Kaptain Kaos ; Has been racing consistently without winning behind some nice types since winter . Hate barrier 1 for him as he is a get back run on type usually , hopefully he can sit closer and find a gap at each way prices. Heavy place Each way best way to make profit.

Best SRM Ascot r9 N1 Western Empire & N15 King of Light Top 3 , N 13 Vivy Air Top 4 >

Western Empire is clearly the best suited at WFA out of the older horses and is 3rd up ready to peak.

3yo’s have a fantastic record in this race and the undefeated King of Light can definitely add to this statistic. $2.40 pretty short though.

Vivy Air has strong NSW form , has to be respected for Waller .

They are the three going into my quaddie and I’ll take the SRM @ $12 plus. I’m still a massive Cosmic Crusader fan and will include him in the Quaddie , just think he is short in the market considering he couldn’t qualify for the Railway under handicap conditions and now steps up to WFA.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r7 Nine Ball ; The two at the top of betting are stablemates , both drawn wide and both have leading jockeys booked. Rate Nine Ball’s overall form better and the wide draw is not disastrous due to her preferred racing pattern of swooping late. 1400m is her pet distance.

SRM Nine Ball (5) Top 2 , Impressive Jewel (8) Top 4 ; Don’t rate the form out of Jewel’s first up win but I do rate the effort first up 1300m no trial . She is a progressive mare and a danger .

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Sunday Prayers

Best Multi Pinjarra r5 Vexatious Rose (Win) ; Races like she is looking for the trip and strikes a very winnable race. Was too slow to get the evens available , if it gets back out it’s a solid bet for mine , if not we multi up.

Pinjarra r8 Kelora (Place) ; This 7yo is racing as well as he can , very consistent without winning. This looks slightly easier and he has a great barrier compared to the favourite. Around $4 for the multi is the play. Providing first leg gets up I also suggest a smaller win bet on this leg.

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Weekend Winners

Best Quinella Ascot r3 Awesome Boy (6) & Fast Harry (8) : Fast Harry is using serious raw ability to sustain runs from awkward barriers to fly through the grades , winning his last 4 . Drops 2kgs but again draws poorly and will be giving equal fav Awesome Boy a head start. No doubt in my mind who the better horse is but the quinella is the safer option due to the map.

Trifecta : 6 8 , 3 6 8 10 11 , 3 6 8 10 11 . $24 This trifecta gives us other options if one of the two favs stink up the quinella.

First 4 ; 6 8 , 6 8 , 3 10 11 , 2 3 4 5 7 9 10 11 . $42 This first 4 requires the favs to run the quinella , the trifecta horses for 3rd and most of the field for 4th.

Ascot r5 Hot And High ; Smoked them in a 1000m Northam maiden on debut , smoked them in a 3yo 1200 midweek , now presents as a 2.70 fav in a 1400m 3yo listed race . The way she has run through the line both times suggest 1400m will be right up her ally and the times she has posted suggest she is capable of conquering the massive class jump. Very exciting filly who gets in on the minimum under the set weights and penalties conditions.

Best Bet Ascot r9 Overpass ; 2 time Qoukka winner , going for his 3rd Winterbottom , he goes all right at the Ascot 1200 just quietly! He races best fresh and comes here off a 1.5 length 4th in The Everest behind Ka Ying Rising , Tempted and Jimmystar if you don’t mind. That is seriously the best sprinting form in the world. Joker’s Grin beat him in last years Qoukka and has returned in scintillating fashion. The map is too kind to Overpass this year for mine , he gets it completely on his terms out in front and it will take a freakish performance to run him down , not out of the equation however .

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Albany Analysis

Best Bet Albany r4 Brave Apache ; First start in WA was this track & distance in Maiden grade and it was a win as soft as you will see on a racetrack. Trainer’s runners are going super , jockey is riding brilliantly and chock full of confidence. There is a lot more speed / pressure in this c2 and he has drawn wide but I still expect them to control it from the breeze and prove too classy.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Place Bet Geraldton r5 Cantilever ; Finally won his maiden last start at start 11 , after a string of 2nds. The 2nds were behind some smart horses and now he has broken through he can use the confidence to try and go on with it . Hard to trust for a win bet but $2.25 a place seems reasonable.

Best Each Way Geraldton r7 Snippety Legend ; First start in WA was a soft 1400m c2 win and he beat today’s top weight and fav in that event. Jockey Austin Galati is riding with supreme confidence and should give it every chance .

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Sunday Prayers

Best Value Bunbury r2 Galilea ; 6yo mare who has only won 1 from 19 but she gets back and hits the line so in a field of 6 with a howling wind I’m having a peanut on and seeing if she can topple the $1.60 pop Artistry In Motion . $4.80 to run top 2 not bad odds.

SRM Artistry in Motion (1) Win Galilea Top 4 : Only 6 in it so if the fav is too good she only has to run top 4 for odds over $3

Best Bet Bunbury r5 Jimmy Angel ; Dropping from 3yo company to maiden grade , if he handles the step up to 1400m first time he really should be beating these. No certainty he does but $2.60 in a weak race is good enough to find out.

Weekend Winners

Best Each Way Ascot r5 Angel Undercover ; This race sets up very similarly to her last start where she sustained a big run to win quite soft over this track & distance. Drawn slightly better in a slightly smaller field , think she can settle a touch closer and make the same run , hopefully holding out the same horse in Sixinch Heels and the fav Essentric Nature .

Best Trixie : A trixie takes 3 double combinations and 1 treble on 3 horses. I like them on favs so that you get something if 2/3 win instead of the old 1 leg losing ticket.

R2 Beatty ; Heavily backed on debut , he accounted for a previously unbeaten 2yo with ease. With the dangers being debutantes , he looks awfully hard to beat.

R7 Captain Pluto ; Usually against this horse as he always starts short and could mix his form. Seems to be more trustworthy this prep , building towards the Perth Cup with a dominant win over 1800m last start and you would imagine the further the better .

R8 King of Light ; Undefeated and clearly WA’s best 3yo , this feature will seal the crown and see him jump clear fav in the Group 1 Northerly at WFA in a couple of weeks. Only bad luck or Rock Fest can beat it . The quinella will be my saver.

MEGA BEST BET R10 SMOOTH CHINO ; 60.5KGS , barrier 1 fav with a lesser ranked jockey on , swooping conditions predicted , I don’t care , he is better than them. He is undefeated with Austin steering the last 3/4 . He is versatile , having swooped and raced on pace. First up he was ridden like the best horse and he proved he was and 2nd won last Saturday. Really rate this horse , he can be featuring in the feature races next year and I expect him to remain undefeated. *Bet of the Pinnacles !

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Wednesday Winners

Best Each Way Belmont r3 Godless Storm ; A 6yo having his 3rd start and first time he’s had 2 starts in a prep. The ability is clearly there on the evidence of his runs and trials, the gamble is him getting past what ever issue is holding him back .

Best Bet Belmont r 6 Shamiliiian Miss ; She was unlucky not to win first up , did a lot of work out wide and only just run down by a nice type. Went straight into the blackbook and while she’s no star , she should get a great run in this. Market watch on Impressive Jewell , first up no trial over 1300m but has ability.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Fast Harry ; He jumps from a Northam c3 to grad 60+ company from an awkward barrier and yet goes round as my best bet at a pretty short qoute ($2.75) . He hails from the top stable , has Pike to negotiate the map and has been beating his opposition with a touch of arrogance .

Best Value Ascot r3 Miss Veuve ; Lightly raced 5yo mare who still does a lot wrong but is really attacking the line with great purpose . Eligible for c1’s , winning a graduation 60 plus won’t be easy but there is enough value in the $15 to have an each way bet on a 25/75 split basis.

Ascot r7 London’s Image : First run for team Williams she split Rope Them In and Super Smink . That’s premier WA form and she has good early speed to get over from 8 . Stablemate Yorga Pride gets Pike replacing an apprentice but I feel London would have to run below her first up rating to be run down.

Best Trixie ; A Trixie is a 3 leg multi that takes the 3 double combo’s and 1 treble. Good way to back short priced favourites if you think they deserve to be that short.

Ascot r6 Joker’s Grin ; Wa’s best sprinter who beat them first up and looks even better suited in this despite losing his regular jockey. Just keep him out of trouble and round them up .

Ascot r9 Luana Miss ; She has an electric turn of foot and with King Of Light & Talkanco targeting the longer 3yo features , I’m not sure anything else can match her.

Ascot r10 Cosmic Crusader ; Still holds Railway Stakes favouritism , still needs to win this to qualify. Drawn inside stablemate Luvnwar this time , surely he will be ridden aggressively early and take no chances . Was he slightly underdone ? Is he more dynamic on wet tracks? These questions will be answered after the last but he is clearly the one to beat.

Quinella R10 ; 3 & 4 Bonjoy is poised to peak 3rd up and will be stalking the pace . If the fav is vulnerable I firmly believe she is the danger .

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r3 Conchetta’s Dream ; 3yo filly who ran a fast finishing 2nd on debut over 1000m despite a chequered path. The winner of that race has won again since to frank the form. Providing the 7 weeks between runs is for nothing sinister and she is ready to run at her best she is clearly the one to beat. Being from the Williams yard with Pike booked , a considerable drift in the last half hour of betting would be concerning.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet York r1 Dominant Force ; Beaten 1 & 1.5 lengths in winner producing 3YO Omwly company is clearly the right form for a country maiden. Latorio has track & distance experience , York is quirky so that makes her the danger.

York r7 Rocking Society ; Tough Saturday level stayer who will definitely be there when the whips are cracking. Opportunistic had big wraps on him coming into this campaign. This is easier but I’ve been disappointed in his runs and willing to take him on with the 60kgs sharply up in trip on a price sensitive perspective.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Rubens Ceiling ; Controlled the race from the front on debut and raced away for a very soft Northam 1300m maiden win. Went straight to a Saturday 3yo plate and showed great versatility by swooping down the outside to victory over 1400m. From barrier 1 Brad Parnham can choose to lead or sit leaders back and the way he has been running through the line . Wide open race so a 30 / 70 % split is the safe option .

Best SRM Ascot r9 Red Sun Sensation (n6) Top 2 Captain Pluto (N5) Top 3 ; I’m against Captain Pluto at the odds , he always starts short and is 1 / 8 at Ascot however he is the most likely to beat my on top selection in Red Sun Sensation who I expect to lead like he did winning the Northam Cup . Filthy Habits is the only other chance in my opinion so having my on top selection to run top 2 and the fav top 3 is my play.

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r2 Aussie Reactor ; Draws a gate to hopefully sit closer in the run than latest two starts where he has been beaten narrowly in strong form races.

Best Value Northam r4 Godless Storm ; 6yo Playing God gelding having his 2nd career start , first up since April 24. His led at his only start and finished 3rd , beaten under 2 lengths. The fav is a 3yo filly Tennessee Spirit who went too keen out in front as a $1.45 fav on debut and tired late over 1000m. She will be fitter but draws wide and has to run an extra 100m. $1.36 seems ludicrous and I’m backing the 6yo to reward patient connections on a 25/75 % split at good each way odds.

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Cup Day WA WINNERS

Best Bet Ascot r4 Savvy Ruler ; Ran 2nd last start to last Saturday’s impressive winner Buthlezi . I agree with the market in that it’s a race in two with Masmelo , Pike from a much better barrier gives the Mare the nod over the filly.

Best SRM Ascot r9 Miss Veuve (n5) top 3 and Galilea (n6) Top 4 ; Anyone left standing at Ascot r9 on Melbourne Cup Day is going to jump on the #PIKEINTHELAST bandwagon and smash Dominatus into unbackable odds coming off a Northam maiden win. He is the logical choice but I’m going to search for better value and include two backmarkers with jockeys who very rarely ride Ascot. Miss Veuve is airborne and ran 2nd to Battle Commander who won the Westpeed Platinum 1600m on Saturday , this is no harder than that race. Galilea took 17 starts to win her maiden over 1300m with an incredible last to first run. Flooded home again over 1500m in a c1 next start and can run top 4.

Best Quinella Bunbury r2 No’s 1 & 9 ; Reconnaissance has shown above average ability at trials and her 1 start resulted in a 2nd against the older horses. Perfect Score is part of a Cerise N white army targeting the maidens with n1 Soldier CJP choosing to ride here over Ascot. Blinkers on and the obvious danger.

Bunbury Best Bet r4 Publicise ; Debut run was a non event after missing start , led til the shadows at start 2. Drops to maiden grade for first time and the pads coming off is a good sign.

Bunbury SRM r7 Zippy Zany N1 & Galway Shawl N4 Top 3. ; Zippy Zany was off n gone last start before caught late by a smart one , beating the rest comfortably. Galway Shawl was a good debut winner and nothing really went right 2nd up in a better race than this , still hit the line off a chequered package. There are a couple of others with claims at odds so top 3 for insurance.

Best on Breeding Geraldton r6 Truly Gallant : Full Brother to group 1 winner Truly Great , this horse jumped $20 on debut and put in a remarkable run . He settled a long last after being slow away and then ran away from them over 1210m. On that and breeding , the 1420m can only be more beneficial and it looks a mouth watering clash with Hillside Monarch who was sensationally plunged into $1.55 first up and supporters were never in any danger of being let down.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Keggs Later ; Low level Ascot staying races are a very dangerous “best bet” proposition but he really does look to have the right form to give it a big shake including 2/3 this track & distance. Nothing in these types of races will ever be a “good thing” but $4.60 is good value imo.

Best Quinella Ascot r9 No’s 6 & 7 ; Cosmic Crusader has to win this to earn his place in the Railway Stakes. The current All In fav has been super impressive in his two wins since an injury enforced spell and while odds on is too short to invest , he will start close to odds on in the big one if he wins this as expected so perhaps back him in that market instead. Bonjoy is in the same boat in trying to qualify , she ran enormous first up , just beaten by the barrier and this time likely settles 3 back the fence or similar from gate 1. I expect Cosmic Crusader to be ridden handle bars down from the outside and crossing , leaving Watch Me Rock and Bonjoy to sit on his hammer and try and run him down. I rate her higher than Watch Me Rock so happy to take the quinella and hope Cosmic gives a good kick and Bonjoy gets out in time to get past Rock.

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